As SpaceX's stock notches first close below IPO price, the company is gearing up for a crucial launch

By William Gavin

Starship's success is SpaceX's 'single most important watch item,' analyst says

The Starship V3 on a launchpad in May at SpaceX Starbase in Boca Chica Beach, Texas.

SpaceX's enormous rocket is set to return to space, potentially lifting the company's lagging stock price alongside it.

"It's super exciting. I feel really good about this one," Chad Anderson, managing partner at the venture-capital firm Space Capital, which first backed SpaceX (SPCX) in 2017, told MarketWatch. "I think that they have retired a whole lot of risk ... and broken through the big engineering challenges."

The launch, which was scheduled for Thursday night but scrubbed at the last minute, is to be the second test of the third-generation version of Starship and its Super Heavy booster, which previously flew in May. That test was mostly successful, if, like other Starship flights, not without its issues.

It was unclear when SpaceX's next launch window will open. It will build on the prior test in a few ways, including by using an altered engine-startup sequence and modifications that could prevent complications with the Super Heavy booster.

Starship's upper stage will also deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites, which are both larger and more powerful than older models, as a test. Those satellites are expected to burn up on re-entry, some 20 minutes after deployment.

Six of those satellites will have cameras used to scan Starship's heat shield and provide SpaceX with new data on how its technology holds up under harsh conditions. The prior flight had used 20 Starlink simulators along with two modified satellites that imaged Starship in space.

The test, Starship's 13th overall, could go a long way toward proving that the rocket is on track to reach its full potential. In its prospectus, SpaceX said Starship could begin deploying the V3 satellites in the second half of 2026, which could provide a major boost to its satellite-internet capabilities.

It's difficult to overstate just how necessary Starship is to SpaceX's growth, even beyond Starlink. It's the "single most important watch item," according to Mizuho's Brett Linzey.

Clear Street Research's Brian Dobson wrote: "SpaceX's growth trajectory, spanning V3 Starlink deployment, orbital AI compute, and lunar ambitions, is highly contingent upon Starship's payload capacity and reusability."

"Any significant slip in launch targets or technical reliability would have a cascading negative impact on every growth vector in our model," Dobson added in a note to clients.

SpaceX has so far spent more than $15 billion developing Starship and plans to drop more cash on the rocket this year. In a filing, the company said it expects space-segment research and development to increase this year as it invests in Starship, with costs moderating once the vehicle is eventually commercialized.

A few companies have disclosed contracts to use Starship for missions, including space and defense firm Voyager Technologies (VOYG), which has a deal to pay $90 million for Starship to launch services related to its Starlab space station. Comparatively, SpaceX charges $74 million for a Falcon 9 rocket, the company's workhorse vehicle.

JPMorgan analysts said Starship V3 could have 10 times the improvement in costs and four times the payload capacity of the Falcon 9. Eventually, SpaceX said, Starship could reduce the cost to reach orbit by 99% relative to the historic average launch cost of $18,500 per kilogram.

Beyond giving a sign that SpaceX is progressing toward turning Starship from a financial drain to a titan, a successful launch could give a boost to the company's lagging stock price. SpaceX's stock, which has been volatile since going public on June 12, closed at a new low on Thursday.

SpaceX shares ended at $131.11 a share on Thursday, closing below their $135 IPO price for the first time. Nearly a trillion dollars has been shaved off its market cap since going public; it stood Thursday at $1.74 trillion, off its peak of $2.68 trillion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

In addition to Starship, SpaceX is scheduled to carry out a mission for the U.S. Space Development Agency on Thursday. It's set to launch a Falcon 9 to orbit, transporting a payload for the agency's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, according to the company.

-William Gavin

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07-16-26 1859ET