--- title: "Earnings Preview | Is Tesla bidding farewell to the \"selling cars narrative\"? Key validations for Robotaxi scaling and Optimus mass production are approaching" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/293159521.md" description: "Tesla will release its Q2 2026 financial report after the market closes on July 22. Market attention has shifted from vehicle sales to the progress of Robotaxi and Optimus mass production. Wall Street expects revenue of $26.4 billion and earnings per share of $0.52. Despite deliveries slightly exceeding expectations, the company faces intense competition and margin pressure, with the stock price still discounted from its peak, as investors seek signals of sustainable growth" datetime: "2026-07-20T04:01:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293159521.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293159521.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293159521.md) --- # Earnings Preview | Is Tesla bidding farewell to the "selling cars narrative"? Key validations for Robotaxi scaling and Optimus mass production are approaching According to Zhitong Finance APP, global electric vehicle giant Tesla (TSLA.US) will announce its second-quarter financial report for 2026 after the U.S. stock market closes on July 22 (Wednesday). Against the backdrop of slowing electric vehicle deliveries, intensifying competition, and ongoing pressure on profit margins, market attention has shifted from purely automotive sales to growth narratives with more imaginative potential, such as autonomous ride-hailing, the humanoid robot Optimus, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Investors are trying to find clear signals in this financial report regarding whether Musk can inject sustainable growth momentum back into the company. In anticipation of this financial report, expectations in the market have been significantly revised upward with the disclosure of delivery data and business progress: Wall Street currently expects revenue to reach $26.4 billion, with earnings per share of $0.52, and the gross margin for the automotive business (excluding regulatory credits) to be slightly above 18%. If measured against the latest expectations, revenue is expected to grow by about 17% compared to the same period in 2025, while earnings per share are expected to achieve nearly a 30% year-on-year increase, although pre-tax profits may still decline slightly by 1% to $1.88 billion. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260720/1784517868390375.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) On the eve of the financial report's release, Tesla's stock price is still about 20% discounted from the historical high set in recent years, reflecting investors' concerns about weak electric vehicle demand, ongoing price wars, and uncertainties regarding the timeline for the next phase of growth. **Deliveries Stabilize, but Competitive Pressure Remains** Tesla has preemptively disclosed that its global delivery volume for the second quarter was 480,126 vehicles, with production at 451,758 vehicles. The delivery data exceeded some pessimistic expectations, briefly boosting market sentiment, but did not completely dispel external doubts about the stability of its market position. In the world's two largest electric vehicle markets— the United States and China—competition intensity continues to escalate. Traditional automakers and local Chinese brands like BYD (01211) are continuously launching more price-attractive electric vehicle models. Although Tesla remains one of the largest pure electric vehicle manufacturers globally, BYD has firmly held the title of global sales champion for new energy vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) and has surpassed Tesla in pure electric vehicle sales in multiple quarters. As the electric vehicle market matures, the difficulty of maintaining market share is increasing day by day. Investors will closely monitor management's outlook on production plans, order trends, and end-user demand for the second half of the year, especially in a macro environment where interest rates in major economies remain relatively high, and consumers are becoming more cautious about large discretionary spending. **Profit Margins: Cost Reduction and Diversification are Key** Over the past two years, Tesla has frequently adjusted vehicle prices downward to stimulate demand, leading to ongoing pressure on automotive gross margins. Although the decline in raw material costs provides some buffer, the market is more focused on whether improvements in manufacturing efficiency, expansion of software revenue, and a better vehicle mix can drive profit margins back into a recovery path The operating profit margin and free cash flow in the second quarter will become important benchmarks for assessing Tesla's balance between growth and profitability. Notably, due to a sharp expansion in capital expenditures, the possibility of free cash flow turning negative has drawn significant attention. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco pointed out that as capital expenditures more than double, investors are increasingly focused on whether the spending truly strengthens Tesla's moat in the field of "physical AI." **Autonomous Taxi: Scaling Progress Becomes the Focus** Fully autonomous driving software and the Robotaxi business are core pillars of Tesla's long-term valuation. Currently, the actual rollout and expansion pace of the autonomous taxi service has become one of the most anticipated updates in this earnings call. Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry stated that this earnings report is expected to provide more details about Robotaxi deployment, particularly regarding the pace of fleet expansion and new market development plans. After launching services in Miami on July 3, Tesla has begun operations in five markets, with four more in the preparation stage. Its scaling capability will directly test the market's skepticism about Tesla's pure vision approach. The analyst also noted that regarding safety data, there have been 22 reported accidents since the service launched until mid-June, but no serious injuries or fatalities, which provides some support for regulatory communication and public acceptance. Any changes regarding the timeline for the commercialization of autonomous driving, regulatory approval progress, and FSD subscription rates could become significant catalysts for the stock price. **Optimus: Moving from Grand Narrative to Substantial Production** The humanoid robot Optimus is moving from the vision repeatedly depicted by Musk to a critical point of production on the assembly line. Over the past two years, Musk has provided extremely aggressive production expectations for Optimus, and this quarter may mark the beginning of validating its execution capability. According to the latest information, Tesla plans to initiate preliminary production of Optimus at the Fremont factory from late July to August, with the possibility of launching the third generation of Optimus around the same time. More specific signals are coming from the supply chain: Tesla has begun issuing clear procurement guidelines to suppliers, requiring them to increase component production capacity to about 1,000 units per week by September, and further expand to 2,000 to 2,500 units per week by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley expects Musk to elaborate on the final design of Optimus, the production ramp-up curve, and early application scenarios within Tesla's own manufacturing system during the earnings update. If progress goes smoothly, Optimus is expected to transition from a long-term option to a visible growth curve. **Energy and AI: Diversified Growth Pillars Taking Shape** Beyond the automotive business, energy generation and storage are becoming increasingly important contributors to profitability. As utilities and enterprises increase investments in grid-level energy storage systems to support the energy transition, demand for the Megapack large battery system remains strong. The revenue and profit growth from the energy business provides Tesla with valuable diversification support beyond automotive manufacturing. AI investment is a recurring theme throughout this earnings report. Musk has repeatedly emphasized that AI capabilities are Tesla's core competitive advantage, supporting not only autonomous driving but also serving as the brain for the Optimus robot program The market will look forward to a specific elaboration on AI infrastructure investment, computing power scale, and how it translates into future revenue. Against the backdrop of soaring capital expenditures and pressure on free cash flow, investors need to hear a convincing "physical AI" input-output logic from management ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLI.US.md) - [TESL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [07766.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [TSLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [TSLS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [TSLQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSLZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [TSDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLO.US.md) - [TSLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLW.US.md) - [TSLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLY.US.md) - [TSYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSYY.US.md) - [TYYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TYYY.US.md) - [CRSH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRSH.US.md) - [TSLP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLP.US.md) - [09366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [MAGX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MAGX.US.md) - [07366.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla expands ridesharing service in California to new hotspot](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293379162.md) - [Tesla Plans 20% Production Increase at Berlin Plant](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293237644.md) - [Tesla Stock Rises After 20% Berlin Factory Production Boost Plan](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293233368.md) - [Tesla stock gains as options traders price in ~6% post-earnings swing](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293363112.md) - [Tesla Diner is throwing a birthday party with a Franz-signed special treat](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293174117.md)