UBS Upgrades CONCH CEMENT to Neutral, Cuts TP to HKD18.2
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.UBS upgraded Conch Cementfrom Sell to Neutral, citing a normalized valuation and balanced risk-reward profile amid signs of a bottoming trend in China's cement industry. However, the target price was cut from HKD21.4 to HKD18.2. Earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 16% and 5% respectively due to continued low-price competition, though falling thermal coal costs are expected to aid profit recovery from 2027.
UBS published a research report stating that China's cement industry is only in the middle stage of a structural demand downcycle, but evidence of a bottoming trend is becoming increasingly apparent. The broker expected the industry's profitability to bottom out this year and recover mildly from 2027 onward. Considering that the valuation premium of CONCH CEMENT (00914.HK) +0.540 (+3.138%) Short selling $17.48M; Ratio 27.928% has largely normalized and the risk-reward profile has become more balanced, UBS upgraded the stock rating from Sell to Neutral, while lowering the target price from HKD21.4 to HKD18.2.
The broker lowered its earnings forecasts for CONCH CEMENT (00914.HK) +0.540 (+3.138%) Short selling $17.48M; Ratio 27.928% for 2026 and 2027 by 16% and 5% respectively to RMB7.1 billion and RMB7.5 billion. UBS also reduced its forecast for the average selling price of PO-42.5 cement to RMB345 per tonne to reflect continued low-price competition, but expected thermal coal prices to fall from RMB750 per tonne this year to RMB720 per tonne in 2027, believing lower fuel costs will help profits gradually recover.