---
title: "Brent Crude Approaches $100 Mark! RBC Warns: War Enters Dangerous Phase, Oil Prices May Surpass 2008 Historical Peak of $146"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/293620016.md"
description: "Driven by the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and attacks by Houthi forces, Brent crude oil is approaching the $100 threshold. RBC warns that the war has entered a dangerous phase, and if blockades of key straits intensify, oil prices could break historical records. Tight global oil inventories combined with escalating supply risks have heightened concerns in the energy market"
datetime: "2026-07-23T12:47:48.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293620016.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293620016.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293620016.md)
---

# Brent Crude Approaches $100 Mark! RBC Warns: War Enters Dangerous Phase, Oil Prices May Surpass 2008 Historical Peak of $146

Brent crude oil is rapidly approaching the $100 per barrel mark, as the sharp deterioration in the Middle East pushes the global energy market to its most dangerous edge in decades.

On Thursday, Brent crude futures rose nearly 5% in a single day, touching $98.70 per barrel during intraday trading. Previously, the involvement of Houthi forces threatened to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint, while the Strait of Hormuz remained partially obstructed. The simultaneous pressure on these two vital chokepoints has caused risk premiums in the market to surge dramatically.

Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned that **"the war is entering a dangerous phase, with risks to the Red Sea and critical infrastructure,"** pointing out the possibility that oil prices could break through the 2022 high of $128 per barrel seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and even challenge the 2008 historical peak of $146.

This surge in oil prices occurs against the backdrop of significantly depleted global petroleum buffer stocks. Inventories in Cushing are reported to be near "bottom-of-the-tank" levels, leaving the market with little capacity to absorb sustained supply shocks. Meanwhile, the national average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. exceeded $4 per gallon on Monday, further increasing political pressure on the Trump administration to pursue diplomatic mediation in the Gulf.

## Dual Chokepoints Under Simultaneous Pressure, Supply Risks Escalate Suddenly

The direct trigger for this sharp rise in oil prices was the renewed actions by Houthi forces against shipping in the Red Sea.

According to Xinhua News Agency, **the Yemeni Houthi forces stated in the early hours of the 23rd (local time) that they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, claiming that these tankers violated the maritime embargo recently announced by the group.** Following the news, Brent crude jumped above $95 in after-hours trading.

By Thursday, as war risk premiums continued to accumulate, oil prices rose further to $98.70.

Currently, **oil tankers are once again avoiding routes in the southern Red Sea. Shipping traffic, which had briefly resumed after the subsidence of Houthi attacks in 2023, is facing a new reversal.** At the same time, the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has not been lifted. With the two most important global energy transport channels simultaneously in chaos, market expectations for supply have tightened sharply.

Saudi Arabia has issued strong signals, stating that it will respond forcefully to any attacks on its oil tankers or onshore energy facilities, further exacerbating the risk of escalation.

## RBC: Oil Prices Could Break 2008 Historical Peak in Worst-Case Scenario

Helima Croft's language in a report sent to clients on Thursday was unusually strong. She pointed out that although Brent crude has accumulated a gain of over 30% since July 1, current prices remain a "lagging indicator of extreme stress in the region."

Croft stated that given the ongoing dangerous escalation, there is a potential for oil prices to break through the $128 per barrel high set during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the worst-case scenario of a full-scale regional war, prices could even challenge the 2008 historical peak of $146.

She specifically highlighted the profound impact of Houthi involvement: **The participation of Houthi forces could further expand supply losses caused by the war by undermining the effectiveness of alternative pipeline routes from east to west.**

Saudi Arabia had previously relied on the East-West Pipeline, with a daily capacity of 7 million barrels, to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and export part of its crude via the Red Sea. However, if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also becomes impassable, this alternative route would lose its significance. Tankers heading to Asia would be forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, not only significantly raising freight costs but also delaying delivery times by several weeks, thereby further tightening physical market supply.

## Goldman Sachs Also Issues Warning, $120 Could Be Q4 Scenario

RBC is not the only institution issuing warnings.

According to reports, Daan Struyven, a commodities expert at Goldman Sachs, warned on Monday that if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Brent crude futures could soar above $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter. He also noted that this is not his baseline forecast scenario.

The statements from both institutions jointly outline the current risk landscape of the market: the baseline scenario is already severe, while tail risks are even more extreme.

## Inventory Emergency Combined with Political Pressure Narrows Trump's Diplomatic Mediation Space

Adding to market concerns is the fact that this supply shock is occurring at a time when the global oil safety cushion has been significantly thinned. Crude inventories in Cushing are reported to be near "bottom-of-the-tank," leaving the market with almost no extra buffer space to absorb a prolonged supply disruption.

On the demand side, the national average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. broke through $4 per gallon on Monday. The rise in this politically sensitive indicator is increasing internal pressure on the Trump administration. Analysts believe that once the U.S. military completes sufficient strikes on Iran's missile and drone capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping, pressure from oil prices will prompt Washington to seek diplomatic solutions anew.

In terms of supply scale, the risks are significant. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the global oil supply; under normal circumstances, 8 to 9 million barrels of oil pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait daily. If both channels were to become paralyzed simultaneously, the global energy market would face an unprecedented test of supply pressure.

Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer

The market involves risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the investor.

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