HSBC Research Expects China Passenger Vehicle Retail Demand to Fall 13% This Year, Downgrades GWMOTOR to Hold
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.HSBC Research downgraded GWMOTOR to Hold, cutting its target price significantly due to weak guidance and Russia tax uncertainties. The broker lowered China's 2026 passenger vehicle retail demand forecast to a 13% decline and EV growth to a 6% drop. Additionally, HSBC revised earnings forecasts for GAC GROUP and BAIC MOTOR, predicting net losses for both in 2026 amid industry consolidation, high inventories, and pricing pressures.
HSBC Global Investment Research issued a research report lowering its forecast for China's passenger vehicle retail demand in 2026 from a YoY decline of 5% to a decline of 13%, while its forecast for electric vehicle demand growth was revised from a YoY increase of 10% to a decline of 6%. The broker believes industry consolidation will continue, while high inventories and pricing pressure among traditional automakers will weigh on profit margins and drag on earnings performance.
HSBC Global Investment Research lowered its 2026 earnings forecast for GWMOTOR (02333.HK) -0.180 (-2.013%) Short selling $15.20M; Ratio 12.621% by 23%, and sharply cut the TP from HKD21.6 to HKD9.3. The rating was downgraded from Buy to Hold to reflect weaker-than-expected 2Q guidance and rising uncertainty over Russia scrappage tax refunds. The broker now expects GAC GROUP (02238.HK) -0.070 (-3.125%) Short selling $2.08M; Ratio 10.264% to record a net loss of RMB5.9 billion in 2026, compared with its previous forecast for breakeven, mainly due to continued weakness in its joint venture business, especially the significant contraction in GAC Honda. The TP was lowered from HKD3.62 to HKD2.13, while the Hold rating was maintained.
In addition, HSBC Global Investment Research maintained the Hold rating on BAIC MOTOR (01958.HK) 0.000 (0.000%) Short selling $752.91K; Ratio 28.718% , while lowering its 2026 earnings forecast to a net loss of RMB1.025 billion. The TP was reduced from HKD2.2 to HKD0.8.(gc/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-23 16:25.)