--- title: "Newell Brands (NWL) Faces An Earnings Test After Its Recovery Narrative Turned Pricey" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/293829393.md" description: "Newell Brands (NWL) faces an earnings test on July 31 with expectations of lower year-over-year earnings despite higher revenue. The stock has seen recent momentum but remains overvalued by the primary narrative at $5.08 versus a fair value of $4.94, citing weak core sales and elevated leverage. Conversely, an alternative DCF model suggests significant undervaluation at $21.61 per share, highlighting conflicting views on the company's recovery potential and valuation." datetime: "2026-07-25T21:07:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293829393.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293829393.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293829393.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Newell Brands (NWL) Faces An Earnings Test After Its Recovery Narrative Turned Pricey Newell Brands (NWL) heads into its July 31 earnings report with expectations for lower year over year earnings on higher revenue, a setup that often puts extra focus on how the stock reacts. See our latest analysis for Newell Brands. At a share price of $5.08, Newell Brands has a 90 day share price return of 20.09% and a year to date share price return of 36.56%, but the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 13.38%, extending a 5 year total shareholder return decline of 74%. This suggests recent momentum contrasts with a much weaker longer term experience as investors reassess both earnings risks and recovery potential around the upcoming report. If Newell Brands has you thinking about where else capital might work harder, this could be a good moment to widen your search with 18 top founder-led companies After such a sharp 90 day rebound in Newell Brands following years of weak total returns, the choice now is simple but uncomfortable: lean in at today’s price, or wait and hope for a better entry. The valuation numbers offer some clues. ## Most Popular Narrative: 2.9% Overvalued Newell Brands is trading at $5.08 versus a most-followed fair value estimate of $4.94, so the current price sits slightly above that narrative’s view, which leans heavily on execution and cost control to support future earnings. > *Aggressive ongoing cost-saving initiatives, productivity improvements, and ERP system harmonization are expected to enable structural operating margin expansion, drive sustainable EBITDA and EPS growth, and ultimately improve the company's leverage profile.* *Read the complete narrative.* The core of this Newell Brands narrative is simple: modest revenue gains, a sharp profit swing, and a lower future earnings multiple all have to line up. The key question is which margin and earnings steps really carry that fair value story. **Result: Fair Value of $4.94 (OVERVALUED)** Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, Newell Brands still faces pressure from weak core sales and elevated leverage, which could keep margins, cash generation, and any earnings recovery under strain. Find out about the key risks to this Newell Brands narrative. ## Another View: Newell Brands Through The Cash Flow Lens While the most-followed Newell Brands narrative points to a modest 2.9% overvaluation at $5.08 versus a $4.94 fair value, the SWS DCF model presents a different perspective, with a future cash flow value of $21.61 per share, suggesting the stock is trading at a steep discount. Which story appears more credible to you? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. NWL Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026 ## Next Steps With Newell Brands showing both pressures and potential in this narrative, it makes sense to move quickly, review the full picture, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs ## Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Newell Brands? If Newell Brands has sharpened your focus on where money could work harder, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with fresh ideas that match your style. - Target potential mispricings by scanning for companies that combine quality with value using the 49 high quality undervalued stocks. - Strengthen your income stream by zeroing in on companies with higher yields through the 9 dividend fortresses. - Prioritize resilience by focusing on businesses with robust finances using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (49 results). *This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.* ### Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it. Discover if Newell Brands might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring **fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.** Access Free Analysis ### Related Stocks - [NWL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NWL.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Newell Brands Issues $600 Million 6.250% Senior Notes Due 2031 to Refinance 2027 Debt](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296397870.md) - [Newell Brands announces R$ 0.24 per unit dividend, payable Sept. 21](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295829979.md) - [Newell Brands (NWL) After The Rally Faces A Fair Value Debate](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293040920.md) - [Newell Brands Chief Legal & Admin. Officer Bradford R. Turner sells 100,000 shares for $616,000](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295444314.md) - [Insider Selling: Newell Brands (NASDAQ:NWL) Insider Sells 100,000 Shares of Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287821476.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**