--- title: "Zhitong Decision Reference | Waiting for the meeting at the end of July to see if there are any stimuli in the directions of real estate, consumption, infrastructure, etc" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/293857511.md" description: "Hong Kong stocks performed steadily last week, with funds favoring high safety coefficient markets. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this week, expected to remain unchanged, with attention on September trends. Focus is on the Politburo meeting at the end of July, where adjustments in real estate, consumption, and infrastructure may be slightly stimulated. Technology stocks are paying attention to the listing of Changxin Technology and the performance of companies like SK and Samsung, with AI collaborations continuing to deepen. Ning Wang announced the largest repurchase plan in A-share history, intending to repurchase 20 billion to 40 billion yuan for cancellation" datetime: "2026-07-26T23:58:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293857511.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293857511.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293857511.md) --- # Zhitong Decision Reference | Waiting for the meeting at the end of July to see if there are any stimuli in the directions of real estate, consumption, infrastructure, etc **\[Editor’s Market View\]** Hong Kong stocks continued to maintain a relatively stable state last week, against the backdrop of relative instability in A-shares and Korean stocks. This indicates that risk capital is more inclined towards the safer Hong Kong stock market. On Saturday, Trump suspended strikes against Iran, and foreign media reported progress in negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Brent crude oil fell sharply in the dark market, retreating to $87. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this Wednesday, with the market expecting the federal funds rate target range to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This will need to be assessed in conjunction with the latest inflation data this week to determine whether the Fed will take any related actions in September. The most significant event this week is still the **political bureau meeting scheduled for the end of July. It is generally expected that there will not be major easing policies introduced, but minor adjustments cannot be ruled out, particularly to see if there are any stimuli in real estate, consumption, infrastructure, etc.** The focus in the technology sector is on Changxin Technology, which will go public on Monday. The new stock will not have limits on price fluctuations for the first five trading days. As the latest "valuation anchor" in technology, its stability is key; large fluctuations are not necessarily a good thing. **Note that major companies such as SK, Samsung, Microsoft, and Meta will announce their earnings this week. Following last week's lesson from Google, the market is no longer anchoring on the increase in capital expenditures but is instead focusing on AI business revenue and the significant growth rate of customer orders outpacing the expansion speed of capital expenditures, while maintaining robust company profit margins and free cash flow.** On the positive side, the AI summit in San Francisco disclosed a total cooperation plan of $950 billion over five years, with Samsung Electronics and Broadcom: an amount of $200 billion, intentions for advanced storage + AI chip foundry; SK Group (mainly SK Hynix) with Nvidia, Microsoft, Anthropic, and other U.S. companies: an amount of $750 billion, intentions for long-term supply cooperation in HBM storage. **This indicates that the U.S. is binding Korea to continue pushing in the AI direction.** Last Friday evening, Ning Wang issued a shocking announcement, proposing to repurchase A-shares worth 20 billion to 40 billion yuan for cancellation and reduction of registered capital, with a repurchase cap not exceeding 573 yuan per share, which is 49.6% higher than the current price. This is the largest stock repurchase plan in A-share history, which is quite powerful and is expected to trigger a positive follow-up effect. **\[This Week's Golden Stock\]** **Trip.com (09961)** Penalties implemented, waiting for recovery. In the short term, the accommodation business meets expectations. The front-end "Golden Special" label has been removed, but the original hotel cooperation logic has not changed significantly (commission rates have not been adjusted noticeably), and new hotels will no longer have exclusive low-price channels. The income expectation for Q2 2026 was lowered mainly due to rising fuel costs leading to domestic transportation business falling short of expectations, while the accommodation business met expectations. Moreover, the decrease in profit margins for Q2 2026 is due to the dilution effect of high growth overseas. Current booking conditions for the summer are average, and hotel group RP performance is slightly under pressure. The accommodation business is expected to still have room for adjustment. Hotels continue to demand quality user traffic and quality service from Trip.com, and may gradually generate revenue through innovative transaction models such as products and advertising. In the long term, Trip.com’s competitiveness has not suffered a fatal blow, and there is significant growth potential overseas. Currently, Trip.com’s domestic business has reached a relatively mature state, with the speed of online penetration slowing down. It is expected to maintain a growth rate slightly above the overall tourism market in the domestic market (growth in accommodation nights, stable transportation, and outbound growth exceeding domestic tourism), with a mid-term profit expectation of 20 billion yuan domestically Conservatively, a 12X PE can support a market value of at least around HKD 270 billion. The growth rate of pure overseas revenue currently maintains a high growth rate of over 50%, with a shrinking loss rate. If we only look at the Asia-Pacific market, according to Tianfeng Securities' calculations, it is expected to reach nearly 40% of domestic profit volume. Considering that the profit margin for overseas businesses in other markets such as Europe and the United States will be even larger. **【Industry Observation】** **Chilean mining disturbances exceed expectations, non-US copper inventories tighten again.** Inventory side: This week, global copper inventories decreased by 41,000 tons compared to the previous week, with SHFE inventories decreasing by 11,000 tons, social inventories decreasing by 11,000 tons, LME copper inventories decreasing by 20,000 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increasing by 12,000 tons; Supply side: Recently, a severe winter storm hit central Chile, resulting in multiple fatalities. The adverse weather has affected operations at some large copper mines, and shipping at ports has also been restricted. Chile's copper production from January to May fell by 200,000 tons year-on-year, mainly due to declining grades and insufficient processing plant capacity. Overall, copper mine production decreased by more than 500,000 tons in the first half of this year, and Chile's production may still not recover in the second half. Demand side: As we quickly enter the peak season of September and October, domestic social and exchange inventories have fallen to lower levels compared to previous years, and non-US inventories are tightening again, with the possibility of a short squeeze in the second half of the year. Recommended to pay attention to: China Gold International (02099), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), and Minmetals Resources (01208). **【Data Monitoring】** According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (July) is 120,460, with a net open interest of 49,860. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is July 30, 2026. The Hang Seng Index is at 24,963 points, with a dense area of bull certificates near the mid-axis below, while bear certificates are deviating above, indicating a motivation for shorting in the Hong Kong stock market. US Treasury yields have reached new highs since April 2024, raising alarms for financial stability. Data suggests a bearish outlook for the Hang Seng Index this week. ![图片 1.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260727/1785109787573081.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **【Editor's Remarks】** The tug-of-war around the 25,000-point index continues, lacking sustained incremental capital resonance upward, while downward support comes from valuation bottoms and high-dividend assets, making it difficult to see a one-sided market. The mid-year report season is about to begin, and the momentum for upward revisions in profit expectations has already cooled. The market is shifting from "speculating on expectations" to "verifying results." The non-ferrous, non-bank, and electronics sectors have high pre-announcement rates, while the consumer sector still faces pressure. Meanwhile, the largest wave of unlocks in history and the continuous expansion of IPOs create dual supply pressures, further exacerbating market differentiation: core assets supported by performance can absorb selling pressure through shareholder lock-ups, while pure concept stocks lacking fundamentals will continue to see valuation corrections. In terms of capital, southbound funds have shifted from trend chasing back to bargain hunting, and the pace of foreign capital inflow has slowed, showing clear characteristics of stock game. Allocation still needs to be balanced, with high-dividend assets solidifying the bottom, while growth directions such as technology and innovative pharmaceuticals need to wait for confirmation from both performance and liquidity signals This week is more suitable for patiently observing and waiting for the resonance signals of the FOMC, PMI, and increased trading volume before making directional decisions ### Related Stocks - [03750.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03750.HK.md) - [688825.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688825.CN.md) - [300750.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300750.CN.md) - [03121.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03121.HK.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [MSFT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MSFT.US.md) - [META.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/META.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [09961.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09961.HK.md) - [TCOM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TCOM.US.md) - [601162.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601162.CN.md) - [02099.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02099.HK.md) - [03993.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03993.HK.md) - [603993.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603993.CN.md) - [01258.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01258.HK.md) - [01208.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01208.HK.md) - [00HSI.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00HSI.HK.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) - [HCCD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HCCD.SG.md) - [HTGD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HTGD.SG.md) - [600916.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600916.CN.md) - [600489.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Chinese battery giant CATL rides green energy boom as revenue soars 57%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293808672.md) - [CATL Net Profit Jumps 42%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294079586.md) - [CATL H1 net profit jumps 42%, announces massive share buyback](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293753432.md) - [CATL Declares Interim Cash Dividend for H Shareholders](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293844770.md) - [CATL Calls August Extraordinary Meeting to Vote on Bond Mandate and Share Buyback](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293845274.md)