---
title: "BOCI Cuts TRIP.COM-S  TP to HKD428 as Antitrust Fine Exceeds Expectations"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/293889013.md"
description: "BOCI lowered Trip.com's target price to HKD428 after an antitrust fine of RMB5.18 billion exceeded expectations. Despite the penalty, BOCI maintained a Buy rating, citing Trip.com's dominant market position. The report notes potential downward pressure on commission rates and industry earnings, leading to reduced EPS forecasts for 2026-2028."
datetime: "2026-07-27T06:37:02.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/293889013.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293889013.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/293889013.md)
---

# BOCI Cuts TRIP.COM-S  TP to HKD428 as Antitrust Fine Exceeds Expectations

BOCI published a report stating that the State Administration for Market Regulation announced the results of its antitrust investigation into TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) +13.200 (+3.853%) Short selling $571.35M; Ratio 38.052% last Friday (24th), with total fines and confiscations amounting to approximately RMB5.18 billion, far exceeding market expectations. Although the penalty was harsher than expected and platform commission rates may face downward pressure in the future, BOCI believes the company's leading position in China's online travel market will remain intact. It maintained a Buy rating, but lowered the Hong Kong stock TP from HKD489 to HKD428. The ADR TP for Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM.US) was cut from USD62.7 to USD54.8.

BOCI noted that the regulator determined that TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) +13.200 (+3.853%) Short selling $571.35M; Ratio 38.052% abused its dominant position in China's online hotel booking market by requiring partner hotels to engage in exclusive cooperation or offer the "lowest price across the internet", restricting hotel operators' independent pricing rights and cross-platform operations. The fine was equivalent to 7.5% of its 2025 China domestic sales. The broker had previously expected a fine of about 3% to 4% of domestic revenue, or around RMB2.5 billion, but the final penalty was significantly more severe.

The broker believes the regulatory decision reflects authorities' determination to curb "involution-style" competition in the platform economy. It expects industry commission rates to gradually decline, putting medium-term earnings pressure on online travel agencies (OTAs), though it will still be difficult for competitors to significantly capture market share in the short term. Regarding earnings forecasts, BOCI lowered its core EPS forecasts for TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) +13.200 (+3.853%) Short selling $571.35M; Ratio 38.052% for 2026 to 2028 by 16.2%, 3.2% and 3.2%, respectively, to reflect the fine and assumptions of lower commission rates. (ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-27 12:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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