---
title: "Coinbase to Beat Q2 Earnings? What Prediction Markets Are Signaling as COIN Stock Flashes Mixed Signals"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294176821.md"
description: "Prediction markets indicate a low probability (5%) that Coinbase will beat Q2 earnings expectations, with GAAP EPS needing to exceed $0.03. While analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with an average target of $287, recent price target cuts and insider sales suggest caution. Short interest has declined, a bullish signal, yet the stock remains down 25% year-to-date with weak technical trends."
datetime: "2026-07-29T08:31:21.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294176821.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294176821.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294176821.md)
---

# Coinbase to Beat Q2 Earnings? What Prediction Markets Are Signaling as COIN Stock Flashes Mixed Signals

Cryptocurrency bettors see a low probability that **Coinbase Global Inc.** (NASDAQ:COIN) will surpass second-quarter earnings expectations when it reports after the market close on Thursday.

## Prediction Markets Pricing an Earnings Miss

**Polygon** (CRYPTO: POL)-based **Polyamarket** currently puts only a 5% chance on this outcome, down sharply from 50% barely ten days ago.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Coinbase reports GAAP earnings per share greater than $0.03—the Street consensus estimate for the second quarter.

Coinbase is also expected to report $1.35 billion in revenue for the quarter, a 10% decline from the same period last year.

**Read Also: Coinbase Policy Chief Says CLARITY Act Is Critical to Keep Crypto Lead Over China**

## Current bias on COIN stock: Bearish or Bullish?

The COIN stock carried a consensus “Buy” rating, with 27 analysts setting an average price target of $287. What stands out is that six of the last seven ratings cut the price targets.

Meanwhile, short interest in the stock declined from 26.8 million to 24.90 million in a month, representing 11.3% of the company’s publicly available float. A drop in short interest is typically interpreted as a bullish signal.

It’s worth noting that insiders, who own 0.5% of Coinbase’s total shares outstanding, executed six sales worth $7.3 million in the last 90 days.

According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s total trading volume in the second quarter was lower than in the first quarter.

**Price Action**: Coinbase shares were up 0.02% in overnight trading after closing 0.24% higher at $167.90 during Tuesday’s regular trading session, according to data from Benzinga Pro. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 25%.

The COIN stock maintains a weaker price trend in the short, medium, and long term, according to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings.

**Read Also: Brian Armstrong Rejects 'Pivot to AI' Mindset: Says Crypto Will Power AI Agents**

_Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement._

_Photo courtesy: Shutterstock By Thrive Studios ID_

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