The IPO Window Is Open. Now Comes the Real Test

The initial public offering (IPO) window is clearly open. In Q2, 48 IPOs raised a record $104.8 billion, bringing the first half to $114.7 billion after a slow start of $9.9 billion in Q1. Yes, SpaceX (SPCX) accounts for most of it. SpaceX raised $75 billion, more than all U.S. IPOs from the prior two calendar years combined, and commanded a $1.7 trillion market cap at listing, the largest IPO in history by proceeds.

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Elon Musk operates in a league of his own. This means the market dynamics that absorb a historic $75 billion listing tell you virtually nothing about conditions for traditional $1 billion deals. Yet, strip out SpaceX and the second quarter was still the biggest for IPO proceeds since 2021, with nine other deals raising $1 billion or more.

Now that the IPO market is open, the question is how wide the window has become. On Thursday, July 30, a 70-year-old sandwich chain out of New Jersey will put that exact question to the test, offering the market's first real verdict on whether investors have an appetite for traditional consumer growth outside the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

The Pace Tells the Story

The macro pace proves the IPO window is open, but post-listing trading will show how deep the market really is. While the volume and deal counts above show strong primary demand, the aftermarket also confirms the trend. This year's crop of U.S. debutants, excluding SPACs, has posted weighted returns of close to 16% so far, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPX) by roughly two to one.

This strong secondary performance is backed by a favorable environment. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is trimming non-essential disclosure rules, while market volatility sits near five-year lows.

The AI Concentration Risk

Inside technology, the pipeline is AI-shaped. CoreWeave (CRWV) set the stage with a $23 billion valuation in Q1 2025, while Cerebras (CBRS) delivered the debut pop of the year after clearing CFIUS regulatory review. Cerebras also led the billion-dollar cohort.

Databricks is widely expected to follow in the second half, with OpenAI and Anthropic already having filed confidentially. These AI players are the only issuers for which SpaceX is a relevant benchmark. Its choppy aftermarket may caution them against rushing. The window for tech is undoubtedly deep, but it is also extraordinarily narrow. It says nothing about whether a business without graphics processing units (GPUs) can clear the market.

The Sponsors Line Up

Private equity (PE) firms are driving a massive share of the new IPO momentum. According to PitchBook data, public listings accounted for 30% of all U.S. private equity exits in Q2, nearly tripling their share from Q1. Outside of tech, sponsors are queueing up traditional holdings with zero AI exposure: Cumberland Farms (TDR), Inspire Brands (Roark), Delinea (TPG), alongside Blackstone's (BX) slate including Copeland and PGP Glass.

Back in April, Blackstone President Jonathan Gray dubbed 2026 "the year of the IPO," pointing to nine Blackstone portfolio companies on file. Alternative exit routes are available, but they are constricted. Strategic buyers remain extremely selective, paying up only for rare, prized assets, as in Sysco's (SYY) acquisition of Jetro. Secondary sales between PE firms have slowed under tight debt financing. With other doors mostly shut, sponsors are relying on public listings to carry the load.

Testing Depth beyond AI

One of Jonathan Gray's nine portfolio companies will put the market to the test on Thursday, July 30. Blackstone acquired control of Jersey Mike's, a sandwich chain, in late 2024 at an estimated $8 billion enterprise value. Listing it now, well under the standard three-to-five-year private equity hold period, is a deliberate move to jumpstart returns.

A fast exit inflates Internal Rate of Return (IRR), even if it doesn't immediately deliver actual cash distributions (DPI) to fund investors. Blackstone is keeping 76.5% of the voting power and selling only part of its position, so this IPO isn't a full exit. The deal creates a liquid, publicly marked stock that Blackstone can slice off over time through follow-on offerings and block sales. The terms reflect that strategy.

Offering 43.5 million shares at $21 to $25, the deal aims to raise up to $1.1 billion. About $301 million will go to the company for debt paydown, while the rest will go directly to selling shareholders — Blackstone and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. The target range implies an equity valuation of up to $7.9 billion, pushing total enterprise value to roughly $10 billion once debt is factored in.

The underlying business is as main-street as it gets: founded in 1956, family-owned for decades until Blackstone took over, and now scaled to 3,300 locations doing $4.3 billion in systemwide sales in 2025. If public markets absorb a traditional sub shop at a $10 billion valuation, we'll finally know if the IPO window is open for the rest of the real economy.

The Reading on Thursday

The pace answered whether the window is open. The IPO on Thursday and share price movements post-listing will answer how wide. Sponsors do not put nine companies on record, or take a two-year-old position public, unless they expect buyers for businesses that have nothing to do with AI. Thursday sets the price, but the filings have already made the argument.