--- title: "After the Federal Reserve held steady, the market lowered the expectation for a rate hike in September, and the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached a new high since 2007" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294270800.md" description: "The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, and the market lowers the expectation of a rate hike in September to about 60%. Influenced by long-term inflation concerns and fiscal supply pressures, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rises to a new high since 2007. Although three FOMC officials voted in favor of a rate hike reflecting a hawkish tendency, the committee ultimately decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% and reiterated its commitment to price stability" datetime: "2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294270800.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294270800.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294270800.md) --- # After the Federal Reserve held steady, the market lowered the expectation for a rate hike in September, and the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached a new high since 2007 According to Zhitong Finance APP, after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time on Wednesday, the market lowered its expectations for a rate hike in September. However, due to long-term inflation concerns and fiscal supply pressures, U.S. long-term Treasury bonds continued to face selling, with the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rising to its highest level since 2007. The interest rate swap market shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September dropped to about 60% after the rate decision was announced, down from about 70% before the announcement, but the market has fully priced in expectations for a rate hike in December. Although three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials voted in favor of a rate hike at this meeting, reflecting growing concerns among some decision-makers about a resurgence of inflation, the committee led by Chairman Waller ultimately decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. In the bond market, there was a clear divergence between long-term and short-term Treasury yields. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose by more than 10 basis points, reaching its highest level in nearly 19 years; the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasuries, which is most sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 6 basis points to 4.23%; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose by 5 basis points to 4.66%. The U.S. dollar index also weakened simultaneously. This is the second policy statement issued since Waller became the chairman of the Federal Reserve. As before, the statement revealed little about the future policy path, merely reiterating the Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving price stability. The FOMC ultimately voted 9 to 3 to maintain interest rates unchanged, with Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, stated that the market's initial reaction was mainly one of "relief" that the Federal Reserve did not raise rates immediately this time. However, he believes that the three officials voting in favor of a rate hike reflect a more hawkish overall stance from the FOMC, and if inflation and employment data released before the September meeting do not show significant cooling, a rate hike in September remains quite possible. This rate decision also provided more certainty to a market that had previously experienced significant disagreement. Before the announcement, traders had expected the probability of a rate hike at this meeting to be around 40%. However, since taking office, Waller has been pushing the Federal Reserve to reduce forward guidance on future interest rate paths, forcing market participants to rely more on economic data rather than verbal guidance from Federal Reserve officials to gauge policy direction. Waller stated at the press conference, "Market participants are learning to focus on 'the game itself,' rather than 'the referee.'" He pointed out that as the Federal Reserve reduces its management of market expectations, market prices will adjust based on their own judgments of economic fundamentals, "I think this is a positive change, and this is just the beginning." Analysts believe that although the Federal Reserve has chosen to hold steady this time, there is an increasing voice within the decision-making body supporting further tightening of policies. Against the backdrop of inflation remaining above target levels and the market forming a consensus expectation for interest rate hikes by the end of the year, the inflation and employment data released in the coming months will still be key factors in determining whether action will be taken at the September meeting ### Related Stocks - [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLT.US.md) - [GOVT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [UBT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UBT.US.md) - [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TMF.US.md) - [TBT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TBT.US.md) - [TMV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TMV.US.md) - [TBF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TBF.US.md) - [TLTW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TLTW.US.md) - [TSYW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSYW.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [JGB yields jump to track U.S. yields higher](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294305565.md) - [TREASURIES-US Treasury yields tick higher; inflation outlook helps cool hike bets](https://longbridge.com/en/news/293199261.md) - [Euro zone benchmark yield hits three-month low, gap with Treasuries widens](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290686419.md) - [TREASURIES-Yields slip after unemployment data surprises to the upside](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287227456.md) - [Euro zone yields steady at multi-week lows](https://longbridge.com/en/news/290660110.md)