--- title: "Apple or Amazon: One Tech Stock Is a Buy Ahead of Earnings, the Other Is Overvalued, Says KeyBanc" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294388769.md" description: "KeyBanc analysts hold divergent views ahead of earnings: Apple is rated Underweight as overvalued due to slowing iPhone unit growth and high P/E, while Amazon is rated Overweight. Analysts believe AWS growth and strong retail trends are underestimated, with a $335 price target implying significant upside despite high capital expenditure forecasts." datetime: "2026-07-30T15:23:13.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294388769.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294388769.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294388769.md) --- # Apple or Amazon: One Tech Stock Is a Buy Ahead of Earnings, the Other Is Overvalued, Says KeyBanc The biggest earnings week of the season continues today (Thursday, July 30), with **Apple (****NASDAQ:AAPL****)** and **Amazon (****NASDAQ:AMZN****)** both reporting after the bell. ### Claim 55% Off TipRanks 200% short exposure to AMZN with AMZO These two market giants enter the fray backed by differing sentiment. Apple has regained its position as the world's most valuable company with investors viewing it as a safe haven amid uncertainty surrounding the AI trade. Amazon, meanwhile, has struggled to win over the market this year, with investors questioning whether its massive spending on AI infrastructure, data centers, and custom silicon will generate returns without weighing on free cash flow. But that doesn't necessarily mean sentiment toward these names will remain the same once their respective prints are in. In fact, KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel thinks Apple investors are in for a rude awakening. "With AAPL providing a safe haven to the sell-off in semis, we think they are missing the bigger picture, which squarely fits our thesis: as AAPL raises iPhone prices, unit growth will slow, and as unit growth slows, so will user growth, which we think ultimately will slow Services growth," Nispel said. The analyst believes recent mobile network operator (MNO) results point to a weaker outlook for Apple. In Nispel's view, U.S. carrier data suggests a negative shift in iPhone go-to-market trends, with postpaid upgrade rates declining 11% year-over-year in the second quarter compared with 5% growth in the first quarter. The slowing demand in the U.S. means Apple may need to rely more heavily on international markets to sustain its growth trajectory, a strategy Nispel views as questionable if the company continues raising prices. "In addition," Nispel continued, "with AAPL trading at ~34x P/E, and a growth profile that is shifting from volume-led growth to pricing-led growth, we think investors should apply a lower valuation multiple. To us, this makes AAPL overvalued at current levels." Accordingly, Nispel rates AAPL as Underweight (i.e., Sell), while his $250 price target suggests the stock is overvalued by ~25%. (To watch Nispel's track record, click here) On the other hand, KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson thinks Amazon's positioning is being underestimated. "AMZN remains our preferred e-commerce stock as: 1) underlying retail trends remain strong; and 2) AWS is inflecting," Patterson said. "While investment in Leo and data centers may limit NT margin upside, we believe consensus is understating revenue and EPS into 2028E (we are 2% and 3% above Street)." Patterson continues to see AWS growth as the central factor shaping investor sentiment. The analyst expects AWS revenue growth to accelerate further in Q2, supported by strong underlying demand, expanded partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as growth opportunities across AI-related areas such as custom chips and Bedrock. On capex, Patterson notes that management has indicated faster AWS growth will require continued investment in infrastructure. The analyst highlights that additional long-term capacity commitments from OpenAI and Anthropic will further increase spending requirements, citing agreements involving 2 gigawatts over eight years and 5 gigawatts over ten years, respectively. As a result, Patterson forecasts Amazon's capex will reach $331 billion in 2027 and $356 billion in 2028, significantly above Wall Street expectations of $235 billion and $241 billion. However, that is not a bad thing. "Despite some NT fears of overbuilding capacity surfaced by Meta's plans to monetize its capacity directly, we maintain that this is more reflective of the demand and prices for incremental compute that tilted the ROI scales," he further said. All told, Patterson rates the stock as Overweight (i.e., Buy), backed by a $335 price target, implying shares will gain 41% over the coming months. (To watch Patterson's track record, click here) All of Patterson's colleagues on Wall Street agree with his stance. AMZN stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating, while its $317.48 average price target points toward 12-month returns of ~34%. Meanwhile, the analyst consensus rates AAPL stock a Moderate Buy, although its $330.86 average target suggests shares will stay rangebound for the time being. 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