--- title: "Northeast Securities: Focus on opportunities in the African real estate chain and pay attention to the smooth landing of overseas cement production capacity targets" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294448356.md" description: "Dongbei Securities released a research report, suggesting to pay attention to real estate chain opportunities in emerging overseas markets such as Sub-Saharan Africa. The report pointed out that the acceleration of urbanization in Africa, a young population structure, and robust GDP growth create long-term demand space. It also highlights the expected mergers and acquisitions efficiency brought by the engineer dividend of Chinese cement companies, as well as the impact of regional macroeconomics, inflation, and local currency exchange rate trends on investment targets" datetime: "2026-07-31T03:23:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294448356.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294448356.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294448356.md) --- # Northeast Securities: Focus on opportunities in the African real estate chain and pay attention to the smooth landing of overseas cement production capacity targets According to the report from Northeast Securities, the cement market shows significant segmentation due to transportation radius limitations, with substantial differences in market prosperity across different regions. The local advantages of high-prosperity markets have immense capacity value. Attention should be paid to emerging overseas markets with long-term demand potential and strong growth certainty, such as sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the current engineer dividend in China's cement industry is significant, and the expected efficiency gains after mergers and acquisitions are evident, with a focus on the advancement of international merger and acquisition projects. Monitoring the macroeconomic development and local currency exchange rate trends in specific regions of Africa is also essential. ## Key Points from Northeast Securities: **Population Perspective** The urban population in Africa continues to grow rapidly, with a growth rate exceeding 3.5% by 2025. Since 1990, the scale of cities in Africa has undergone unprecedented expansion. According to United Nations statistics, the annual growth rate of the urban population in Africa is expected to exceed 3.5% by 2025, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing region in global urbanization. From the perspective of urbanization rate, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach about 44.7% by 2025, roughly equivalent to the level in China during 2006-2007. From the fertility rate perspective, the population in sub-Saharan Africa continues to grow rapidly, with an annual growth rate of about 2.5%; the total fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa is 4.3, the highest in the world, nearly double the global average. From the population structure perspective, by 2025, the proportion of the population aged 0-14 in sub-Saharan Africa will be 40%, significantly higher than the 18% in East Asia and Pacific countries. **Economic Perspective** GDP growth expectations are robust, with a forecast of maintaining a growth rate of over 4% in 2026/2027. Africa's GDP, measured in US dollars, accounts for about 2.5-3% of the global total. According to predictions from the African Development Bank and the United Nations, Africa will continue to maintain a steady GDP growth of over 4% in 2026 and 2027, with East Africa and West Africa expected to lead in growth rates. The growth of oil-importing and exporting countries is expected to diverge with fluctuations in oil prices. From the inflation perspective, the surge in global oil and gas prices is continuously raising inflationary pressures across Africa. The African Development Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 10.4% for all of Africa in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts a median inflation rate of 4.8% for sub-Saharan Africa in 2026. **Exchange Rate** Since 2025, the exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa have generally strengthened. In 2025, the currencies of sub-Saharan Africa have overall strengthened, with the largest appreciation seen in the Ghanaian cedi, Congolese franc, and Zambian kwacha; the Ethiopian birr and South Sudanese pound have weakened due to factors such as currency reform and war, depreciating by approximately 18% and 15% against the US dollar year-on-year by the end of December 2025, respectively. From January to July 2026, the average exchange rate of new local currency units in developing economies in sub-Saharan Africa against the US dollar was 1412, a decrease of 5% compared to the average level for the whole of 2025, continuing the overall strengthening trend. **Nigeria** In June 2023, a unified foreign exchange trading market was established, and the exchange rate is expected to rebound in 2026. The average exchange rates of the US dollar against the Nigerian naira are forecasted to be 1480 and 1521 for 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of +132% and +3%, approximately four times the level before the currency reform. As of July 27, 2026, the exchange rate of the Nigerian naira has rebounded year-on-year, with the US dollar stabilizing around 1376 against the Nigerian naira, a decrease of 10% compared to the average level for the whole of 2025 **Ethiopia** In July 2024, a market-determined exchange rate system will be implemented, with a narrowing of the exchange rate decline in 2026. The average exchange rate of USD to Ethiopian Birr for 2024/2025 is 78/138, a year-on-year increase of +43%/+77%; as of July 27, 2026, the average exchange rate of USD to Ethiopian Birr is 157, an increase of +14% compared to the average level for the whole of 2025. **Risk Warning:** Macroeconomic risks, overseas business risks, competitive landscape risks, rising raw material costs ### Related Stocks - [000686.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000686.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Germany Q2 GDP rises 0.9% Y/Y, beating estimates](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294477044.md) - [AI boom will sustain Hong Kong’s export surge, lift GDP outlook, economists say](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294138612.md) - [Europe’s fastest-growing economies in Q2 2026: Who led and who lagged?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294343035.md) - [Mapfre forecasts global insurance premiums growth above 5% in 2026-27 report](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294343547.md) - [Fed proposes higher threshold for extending credit to bank 'insiders'](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294534146.md)