Gary Black Says Meta Stock Could Mirror Alphabet's Post-Earnings Recovery: Here's Why the Analyst Calls Google 'The Better Business'
Complete. Here is the key summaryFuture Fund's Gary Black predicts Meta stock may rebound like Alphabet post-earnings, as investors overlook conservative guidance and one-time items. However, he considers Alphabet the superior business due to its search, cloud, and Gemini advantages, despite Meta trading at a lower valuation multiple.
The Future Fund‘s Gary Black said Meta Platforms Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:META) post-earnings selloff could mirror Google parent Alphabet Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) recovery over this week, as investors look past conservative guidance and one-time items.
Alphabet Playbook Repeating
Black, in a post on X Thursday, pointed to Google’s parent initially falling about 10% after reporting quarterly results before recovering about 5% over the course of this week as investors reassessed the numbers.
He said Alphabet’s recovery came after investors realized results adjusted for one-time items “weren’t bad,” while viewing management’s slightly negative near-term guidance as its “usual conservative stance.”
Black added that Meta is “likely to follow” the same trajectory as investors digest its earnings report and guidance in the coming days.
$META likely to follow $GOOG’s trajectory after missing estimates last week – down -10% after the print, and then a quick recovery (+5% so far) as investors came to realize the results adjusted for one time items weren’t bad, and the slightly negative near-term guidance was… pic.twitter.com/AarHOh0aYZ
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 30, 2026
Meta’s earnings triggered widespread concern over its escalating AI investments, prompting analysts across Wall Street to cut price targets even as most maintained bullish ratings.
Rosenblatt’s Barton Crockett said “skepticism is rampant” despite solid advertising fundamentals, while Bank of America analyst Justin Post believed investors may be underestimating Meta’s ability to monetize its growing AI infrastructure.
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Meta Trades Cheaper, But Google Has the Better Business
Black said Alphabet remains the stronger business because of Google’s search segment, rapidly growing cloud segment, and Gemini chatbot, which are key advantages that Meta does not have.
He added that Alphabet trades at about 17 times 2026 EV/EBITDA while growing long-term revenue at roughly 20%, compared with Meta’s 11 times EV/EBITDA multiple and approximately 18% long-term revenue growth.
“So while META is cheaper, GOOG likely has the better business.”
What The Stocks Have Done Since Earnings
Meta shares fell 7.45% on Wednesday in extended trading on the earnings announcement after the bell, and tumbled further in Thursday’s trading session as investors focused on heavy AI spending and guidance that missed Wall Street expectations.
Year to date, Meta shares have lost 17.12%, while Alphabet’s Class A and Class C shares are up about 6%.
Price Action: On Thursday, Meta closed 7.95% lower at $539.03 and edged 0.69% higher in after-hours trading.
Benzinga edge rankings indicate META has a Momentum score in the 12th percentile and a Growth score in the 89th percentile.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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