Where Will Joby and Archer Aviation Stocks Be in One Year? Top Investor Weighs In

Electric air taxi stocks have been hit hard over the past year. Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) shares have crashed about 65% during that period, while Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) stock has lost 55% of its value. Investors remain concerned about lengthy FAA certification timelines, persistent cash burn, possible shareholder dilution, and uncertainty surrounding when meaningful commercial revenue will finally arrive.

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Those concerns, however, have outweighed several important operational milestones achieved by both companies in recent months. Joby recently converted its relationship with Virgin Atlantic into a binding commercial agreement for future electric air taxi operations in the United Kingdom while advancing through the FAA certification process. Archer, meanwhile, has expanded beyond passenger transportation through its partnership with defense technology company Anduril and continues preparing for commercial Midnight aircraft operations ahead of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

Despite the market's skepticism, one top investor, known by the pseudonym Stone Fox Capital and ranked among the top 4% of stock pros on TipRanks, remains highly optimistic about where both companies could stand one year from now.

Looking first at Joby, Stone Fox argues investors are placing too much weight on certification uncertainty while overlooking meaningful operational progress already achieved. The investor believes demonstration flights, continued FAA testing, and the Virgin Atlantic agreement have reduced much of the execution risk surrounding the business.

"The key investor takeaway is that Joby Aviation is heading towards starting operations while the stock trades at the yearly lows," Stone Fox noted.

Stone Fox expects investors to begin valuing Joby as an operating aviation company rather than solely as an aircraft developer. The investor sees commercial services launching in markets including New York, San Francisco, London, and Dubai as a catalyst for gradually shifting investor sentiment toward the company's long-term revenue opportunity.

The investor also believes Joby's valuation compares favorably with businesses pursuing similar aviation and defense opportunities. "The market is assigning much larger valuations to aviation and defense stories with similar revenue paths as Joby Aviation, providing the opportunity to invest now for the growth opportunity ahead," he argued.

Stone Fox also points to Joby's approximately $2.5 billion cash balance as providing meaningful financial flexibility while the certification process continues.

Stone Fox is equally optimistic about Archer, believing investors continue to underestimate the value of the company's business beyond its Midnight air taxi program. Alongside commercial passenger aircraft, Archer is developing autonomous aircraft with Anduril, building aviation-focused AI capabilities through Zee, and supplying electric powertrains for defense applications.

"My investment thesis remains ultra Bullish on Archer Aviation trading back at the lows below $5," the investor said.

Stone Fox argues investors should spend less time questioning whether Archer can generate meaningful revenue and spend more time considering when those revenue streams begin accelerating. He believes commercial aviation remains the company's largest opportunity, while autonomous aircraft, defense programs, and artificial intelligence initiatives provide additional long-term upside.

The investor also views Archer's current valuation as failing to reflect the scale of those opportunities. "The key investor takeaway is that Archer Aviation is one of the most compelling stocks now… Investors should use the ongoing weakness to load up on Archer Aviation at a compelling valuation compared to the opportunity ahead in air taxis and autonomous payload transportation," he concluded.

Overall, Stone Fox considers both stocks to be trading well below what their long-term prospects justify, assigning each a Buy rating. (To watch Stone Fox Capital's track record, click here)

Wall Street is somewhat more cautious about Joby than Stone Fox, although analysts still see considerable upside from current levels. Joby carries a Hold (i.e., neutral) consensus rating, while its average 12-month price target of $13.90 implies 94% upside. Archer enjoys stronger support from the Street, earning a Strong Buy consensus rating, and its average 12-month price target of $11.75 suggests 153% upside over the next year. (See JOBY stock forecast or ACHR stock forecast)