--- title: "Weekly Outlook: Non-farm payrolls and earnings reports stir market nerves, Japan and the U.S. will officially announce coordinated intervention actions!" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294594513.md" description: "This week, the market focuses on rising U.S. Treasury yields, tech stock earnings, and geopolitical situations. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a rate hike in September has decreased. Earnings reports from giants like Microsoft have driven a V-shaped rebound in U.S. stocks, while Apple's sharp decline has led to a change in the market capitalization leaderboard, with NVIDIA taking the top spot. After significant volatility, the South Korean stock market rebounded sharply. Geopolitical conflicts have increased energy risks, leading to a drop in crude oil prices, while gold fluctuated at high levels, and the U.S. dollar index faced pressure. Next week, attention will be on coordinated interventions by the U.S. and Japan in the yen" datetime: "2026-08-02T03:35:42.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294594513.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294594513.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294594513.md) --- # Weekly Outlook: Non-farm payrolls and earnings reports stir market nerves, Japan and the U.S. will officially announce coordinated intervention actions! In a week of divergent trading, U.S. Treasury yields, tech earnings, Federal Reserve policy stance, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East became the market focus. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with a 9-3 vote result during the FOMC meeting on July 29, with three officials advocating for a rate hike. Chairman Waller reiterated a strong stance on price stability, causing the market's expectation of a rate hike in September to drop from nearly 100% to about 67%. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield reaching about 4.74% (the highest since January 2025), and the 30-year yield hitting a new cycle high of about 5.27%, putting significant pressure on stock valuations. Earnings reports from large tech companies like Microsoft alleviated market concerns about an AI investment bubble, leading to a return of funds to the semiconductor sector. Samsung Electronics surged 26.81% on the day, and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose about 30%, becoming the main driver of the index rebound. The **Korean stock market** experienced significant volatility this week. The KOSPI index had previously plummeted due to valuation concerns in the AI sector and a sell-off in chip stocks, but on Friday, it staged a historic rebound, gaining about 17.9% in a single day, partially recovering lost ground. On the last trading day of July, Apple fell sharply by 7.35% due to disappointing earnings, losing nearly $358 billion in market value, and relinquishing its title as the world's most valuable company back to NVIDIA. Meanwhile, the three major cloud computing giants—Amazon, Google, and Microsoft—saw significant gains after their earnings reports, collectively adding nearly $1.5 trillion in market value this week, driving the three major **U.S. stock indices** to a V-shaped recovery. SpaceX fell 3.41%, with Musk's personal wealth shrinking by over $600 billion from its previous peak. In terms of geopolitics, the U.S.-Iran conflict has not materially eased, with repeated attacks and interception actions from both sides, raising energy risk premiums. Both **WTI and Brent crude oil** saw significant declines, recording their first weekly drop in four weeks. In the **gold** market, spot gold prices fluctuated above $4,000, closing around $4,043 per ounce on Friday, with performance relatively weak due to upward pressure from the dollar and yields. The **U.S. dollar index** fell back from above 101 and stabilized, closing around 99.73 on Friday, overall pressured by uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's policy path. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): ## Important Events: Yen intervention actions are not over! Can the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement? ### New Developments in the U.S.-Iran Situation U.S. President Trump stated on social media that the U.S. is prepared to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, power, and strength not seen since World War II. Trump stated: "Nevertheless, we have just received requests from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries asking us to postpone any attacks, **as a framework for an agreement has been reached.** This will include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the end of Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, I agree to cancel the attack for the future interests of the world and the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, provided that an agreement can be reached quickly Israel and I jointly commit to this. Everyone is starting to take action to get this done." Previously, according to Israel's Channel 12, an Israeli official stated, "The current tension has reached a peak and is on the verge of explosion." The Israeli assessment believes that Trump "is closer than ever to launching a significant strike against Iran, but there is currently no conclusion." Israel has raised its alert level. The official stated, "We estimate that Trump has not yet decided on the scale of the attack, and it is still unclear whether he wants Israel to participate in the first phase of the action." He added that Trump believes negotiations are just a "waste of time" and is "angry, frustrated, and upset." According to him, the plan proposed to Trump by the White House supports Israel's assessment that a large-scale, targeted attack on energy facilities could shake the Iranian regime. The official stated, "Such a powerful strike could be completed in a timely manner and would not necessarily trigger an 'energy war' that leads to a rise in global energy prices. The targets would be specific facilities that could have a significant impact on the Iranian people." It is still unclear whether Trump will choose this plan or continue to maintain the blockade until the midterm elections. This is not a question of 'whether to take action,' but rather 'when to act.' All signs indicate that Trump seems to have no choice but to move in this direction." ### Japan's Financial Intervention Action Not Over Yet Two Japanese government officials told Reuters that Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will announce on Monday that Tokyo and Washington have taken joint action in the currency market to stop the depreciation of the yen. Sources indicated that **Suzuki is likely to emphasize the determination of both countries to combat excessive depreciation of the yen.** Reports noted that **when asked whether Suzuki would announce "joint action," a source gave an affirmative answer and added that "the action is still ongoing."** Prior to this, market sources indicated that Japanese and U.S. authorities had conducted multiple rounds of yen-buying operations in the market, marking the first such joint intervention since 2011, aimed at boosting the yen from its lowest level against the dollar since 1986. Bessent, with his hedge fund career, has a deep understanding of Japan's position in the global market, and he believes the yen is too weak. Although direct market intervention and verbal support have previously triggered rebounds, they often fade within days or weeks; however, the current level of coordination between the two countries seems to be the closest in decades, raising the stakes for traders shorting the yen. "The market underestimates the authorities' actions," said Kato Michinori, a senior advisor in the currency and interest rate client team at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Tokyo. "It may have become more difficult for speculators to sell the yen. If there is further intervention, the dollar-yen exchange rate could fall below 155." ## Central Bank Dynamics: Fed Under Market Doubt, Will There Be Clear Signals on Friday? ### Federal Reserve: > On Friday at 05:30, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy; > > On Friday at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak ### Other Central Banks: > On Tuesday at 22:30, the Bank of Canada will release its market participants survey report; > > On Wednesday at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting. The Federal Reserve is still weighing how quickly to raise interest rates. The latest speeches from two FOMC voting members next week will provide new clues. **One of the roots of recent market volatility is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path.** The July interest rate decision not only failed to provide clear signals but also intensified doubts. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller insisted on abandoning forward guidance, ushering in a new phase of ambiguous policy signals. After the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week, the rifts within the Federal Reserve became public. Cleveland Fed President Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan collectively voiced strong opposition to the "hold steady" decision made by the majority. **All three officials advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike at this meeting.** Mester bluntly stated in a Friday statement: "The longer high inflation persists, the heavier the cost will be to bring it back down in the future." Kashkari emphasized that monetary policy must play a key role in addressing the associated supply chain shocks to prevent inflation from becoming "entrenched" in the economy. He believes that rather than waiting for conditions to worsen before taking aggressive measures, a series of small preventive rate hikes should be implemented. Logan subsequently agreed with this viewpoint, warning that prolonged deviation of inflation from the 2% target continues to squeeze the budget space of American businesses and households. **Taking moderate action early can reduce the risk of "violent rate hikes" in the future.** The challenges facing the Federal Reserve are becoming unprecedentedly complex. Official data shows that the Fed's preferred inflation indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—rose 3.7% year-on-year in June, remaining above the target level for five consecutive years. The deterioration of the external environment has exacerbated the inflation outlook. International oil prices have surged significantly due to the Iran war instigated by the Trump administration; at the same time, a new round of import tariffs and the burgeoning AI industry boom have jointly pushed up production costs. Hawkish officials are concerned that, under such complex supply-side shocks, the current level of interest rates is insufficient to maintain price stability. Despite the intensification of internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, Waller's statements have failed to quell market anxiety. **Although Waller vowed in a post-meeting statement to spare no effort in curbing inflation, he has shown hesitation in actual operations and forward guidance.** This "hawkish rhetoric, ambiguous action" stance has triggered significant volatility in financial markets. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield, seen as a measure of the Federal Reserve's credibility in controlling inflation, soared to its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday. Investors believe that the Federal Reserve's decision-making body has been too lagging in the face of inflation. Currently, although the market still predicts a roughly two-thirds probability of a rate hike in September, Waller's lack of clear logical policy guidance has led to doubts about whether the Federal Reserve can achieve an economic "soft landing." The public warnings from the three dissenters are, in fact, an ultimatum to the market and the Federal Reserve management in the face of the risk of prolonged inflation Bob Haberkorn, a senior commodity broker at StoneX Group, **is optimistic about the long-term trend of gold, but he expects a sharp decline in the short term.** Bob Haberkorn stated, "I am very optimistic about precious metals, but considering the current pressure in the energy market, gold prices may need to drop to $3,800 for a 'washout' to truly stabilize and start the next round of increases." He also pointed out that despite dissenting voices within the Federal Reserve, the possibility of a rate hike in September is minimal due to the upcoming elections. **"The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma; they cannot hastily raise rates under political pressure."** James Stanley, a senior market strategist at Forex, remains firmly optimistic about the long-term trend, noting, "Despite the unfavorable trend in U.S. Treasury yields, buying interest remains strong at the $4,000 level. Unless there is a fundamental shift in logic, I will maintain a bullish stance." Sean Lusk, co-head of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, believes that now is a good entry point based on seasonal patterns. He stated, "Few are willing to sell below $4,000. Even if it occasionally dips below, prices will quickly rebound. Gold prices often build momentum from August to September and receive support during the October Diwali festival and the subsequent Spring Festival." ## Important Data: Non-farm data may show slight improvement, with labor supply and demand cooling simultaneously? > Monday 16:00, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI final; > > Monday 21:45, U.S. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final; > > Monday 22:00, U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. June Construction Spending MoM; > > Tuesday 22:00, U.S. June JOLTs Job Openings, U.S. June Factory Orders MoM; > > Tuesday TBD, SpaceX announces Q2 2026 earnings; > > Wednesday 16:00, Eurozone July Services PMI final; > > Wednesday 16:30, U.K. July Services PMI final; > > Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone June PPI MoM; > > Wednesday 20:15, U.S. July ADP Employment Change; > > Wednesday 21:45, U.S. July S&P Global Services PMI final; > > Wednesday 22:00, U.S. July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; > > Thursday 17:30, U.S. July Challenger Job Cuts; > > Thursday 20:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1; > > Thursday 22:00, U.S. July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, U.S. June Wholesale Sales MoM; > > Friday 20:30, U.S. July Unemployment Rate, U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, U.S. July Average Hourly Earnings MoM; > > Friday 23:00, U.S. July New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations. Next week's market focus will be on the non-farm report for July, set to be released on Friday. **Following a lackluster increase of 57,000 jobs in June, analysts predict a slight improvement in July, with an increase of 90,000 jobs.** **However, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%.** Any reading above 100,000 could boost confidence in the labor market, thereby increasing bets on a rate hike in September. Conversely, if there is a second consecutive negative surprise, it will raise doubts about hiring strength, prompting investors to cut rate hike expectations. Hiring plans among small businesses improved in June, with initial jobless claims declining between survey weeks, indicating that layoffs remain limited. However, not all labor data for July points in a positive direction. In fact, the number of job vacancies continues to be below last year's levels, and since spring, the weekly private sector employment growth reported by ADP has slowed. Tepid labor demand is accompanied by a slowdown in labor supply growth, which helps maintain balance in the labor market. The sharp decline in the labor force participation rate among prime-age workers in June seems difficult to reconcile with broader economic conditions, **which may reflect some above-normal monthly volatility in the household survey.** The possibility of a rebound in labor force participation brings some upside risks to the unemployment rate. Wage growth should continue to align with a labor market that "has not generated significant inflationary pressure." **Wells Fargo predicts that average hourly earnings will rise by 0.3% in July, with a year-on-year growth rate remaining at 3.5%, slightly below the market consensus expectation of 3.6%. Overall, this report should reinforce the view that labor demand and supply are cooling in tandem, keeping the labor market stable.** However, any signs of weakness in the labor market are unlikely to be seen as a reason to worry about an overall economic recession. After all, even Walsh believes the economy has shown "impressive resilience," as evidenced by the strong earnings growth achieved by most Wall Street firms in the second quarter. Therefore, a moderate employment report could actually be favorable for risk appetite, as bets on a rate hike in September would further decline, although this would come at the expense of a strong dollar. ## Company Earnings Reports: Key Earnings from SpaceX Coming Up! Can AMD Turn the Tide? This week's focus on earnings reports includes Palantir on Monday, SpaceX (SPCX.O) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) on Tuesday, and SanDisk (SNDK.O) and Western Digital (WDC.O) on Wednesday. Even against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, impressive earnings reports are still insufficient to alleviate market concerns about an AI bubble. Questions about over-investment in the AI sector and funding sources continue to plague sentiment around related stocks. With valuations at high levels, investors' expectations for both actual and projected performance have been set extremely high. After the market closes on Monday, big data analytics company Palantir will announce its earnings. As one of the most obvious beneficiaries of the AI wave, whether Palantir's growth rate can match its currently high valuation will directly reflect the quality of AI applications. The market expects Q2 revenue of about $1.8 billion and adjusted EPS of approximately $0.33–0.35. Investors will closely watch for contract expansions with government and commercial clients, the rollout progress of the AIP platform, and whether the full-year guidance will be raised. Recent stock price fluctuations have been significant, and volatility expectations are high following the earnings report Immediately following this, the earnings report of semiconductor giant AMD will be the highlight of the week after the market closes on Tuesday. Following positive signals released by storage chip giant last week, AMD's performance will serve as a "barometer" for whether the demand for AI chips continues to be strong. Additionally, Elon Musk's SpaceX will also release its quarterly update, which will undoubtedly attract the attention of tech investors regarding this unconventional publicly traded company. AMD previously provided a Q2 revenue guidance of approximately $11.2 billion (up 46% year-on-year), with the market focusing on the shipment of data center GPUs (especially the MI series) and the progress of Helios rack-level systems. As a representative in the aerospace and satellite communication field, SpaceX's earnings report will provide the latest clues regarding commercial launches and Starlink-related businesses, with the market having high expectations for its valuation and AI computing power support. On Wednesday morning, the market's attention will shift to the healthcare sector. As the world's highest-valued pharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly's earnings report will unveil the latest situation in the weight loss drug market. Against the backdrop of a surge in global demand for obesity treatment, Eli Lilly's performance will not only affect its own stock price but also lead the sentiment of the entire pharmaceutical sector. The storage sector has recently experienced significant volatility. SanDisk has previously seen substantial fluctuations due to expectations of AI storage demand, with the market anticipating that its revenue and profits will benefit from enterprise-level SSD and HBM-related demand. Western Digital, on the other hand, is focusing on balancing its HDD and flash memory businesses, as well as the sustainability of data center storage demand. 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