--- title: "'Run for the Hills,' Says KeyBanc About Apple Stock" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294630870.md" description: "KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded Apple (AAPL) to Underweight with a $250 price target, citing overvaluation and slowing growth. Despite beating Q3 earnings expectations, concerns over rising costs, supply constraints, and potential demand reduction from higher prices led to the bearish outlook. Nispel warns of peak iPhone growth and lengthening upgrade cycles. This contrasts with Wall Street's Moderate Buy consensus and average price target of $334.07." datetime: "2026-08-03T02:06:18.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294630870.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294630870.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294630870.md) --- # 'Run for the Hills,' Says KeyBanc About Apple Stock **Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)** investors expected another strong earnings report to keep the rally going. Instead, Thursday's earnings report gave them a reason to sell. Although Apple once again delivered results that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, its outlook for the current quarter and concerns about rising costs overshadowed the quarterly beat. ### Claim 55% Off TipRanks - Unlock powerful investing tools with TipRanks Premium to make smarter, more confident investment decisions - Subscribe to TipRanks Smart Investor Newsletter, and discover new investing opportunities with data-backed stock picks For its fiscal third quarter, Apple earned $2.02 per diluted share on revenue of $109.42 billion, topping Wall Street's expectations of roughly $1.89 per share and $108.85 billion, respectively. However, the EPS figure included a $0.11 per-share benefit from tariff refunds, meaning underlying earnings were less impressive than the headline result suggested. Looking ahead, management warned that supply constraints, foreign-exchange headwinds, and rising memory costs are expected to pressure both revenue and profitability during the current quarter. KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel believes Apple may have just reported "peak iPhone growth," suggesting future comparisons are likely to become much tougher. Although he expects fiscal first-quarter growth to improve modestly due to price increases and shipment timing, the analyst argues that the longer-term direction remains far less encouraging. From his perspective, "this is just beginning." Nispel contends that Apple's decision to raise prices in order to offset higher component costs will eventually reduce unit demand. Higher prices, he warns, are likely to convince consumers to keep their devices longer, slowing unit growth, limiting expansion of Apple's user base, and eventually weighing on the Services business. The analyst also estimates that Apple's guidance for non-iPhone hardware implies unit shipments could fall by 15% to 25%, despite higher selling prices. He adds that "the same is likely to come for iPhone" as Apple raises prices to defend margins against higher component costs. Another concern involves wireless carriers, which Nispel says are becoming "more disciplined in their GTM" by offering fewer promotional subsidies. The analyst believes that trend, combined with Apple's own price increases, will encourage longer replacement cycles and reduce upgrade activity over time. His biggest concern, however, remains valuation. Apple currently trades at about 37 times his fiscal 2027 earnings estimate, well above its three-year average multiple. Nispel argues that the valuation "doesn't reflect a shifting growth profile" and continues to "view the stock as overvalued," believing investors still underestimate the risks of slowing hardware demand, weaker Services growth, and a lengthening upgrade cycle. Taken together, Nispel's message is clear: run for the hills. The KeyBanc analyst assigns AAPL shares an Underweight (i.e., Sell) rating and a $250 price target, implying 19% downside from current levels. (To watch Nispel's track record, click here) Does the rest of Wall Street share Nispel's bearish outlook? For the most part, no. Apple continues to earn a Moderate Buy consensus rating from 29 Wall Street analysts, with 16 recommending Buy, 11 assigning Hold ratings, and just 2, including KeyBanc, rating the stock a Sell. The average 12-month price target stands at $334.07, implying an 8% upside from current levels. 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