G Sachs Expects AIA 2Q New Business Value Growth to Slow to 12%, Maintains Buy Rating

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on AIAwith a HKD97 target price. The broker expects AIA's 2Q new business value growth to slow to 12% YoY due to high base effects, while 1H growth is projected at 15%. Key focus areas include Hong Kong sales momentum and Mainland China expansion. Financial forecasts show 1H after-tax operating profit rising 10% YoY to USD3.957 billion, with net free surplus generation up 12%. Goldman Sachs raised its FY2026 net profit forecast by 12%, citing strong stock market performance.

G Sachs issued a research report expecting AIA (01299.HK) -1.200 (-1.514%) Short selling $116.38M; Ratio 17.287% 's value of new business for 1H26 to rise 15% YoY at actual exchange rates to USD3.254 billion. Among which, the growth rate in 2Q is expected to slow to 12% (at actual exchange rates), compared with 17% in 1Q, mainly due to the high base effect in the Hong Kong market rather than a slowdown in sales. The broker expected annualized new premiums and value of new business in Hong Kong to record QoQ growth in 2Q.

AIA will announce its 2Q and 1H results before market open on Aug 20. G Sachs expected investors to focus on the sales growth momentum in Hong Kong and growth in the Mainland China market, including agent headcount, bancassurance sales, product mix and value of new business margin. In terms of capital management, attention will be on share buybacks and potential inorganic growth opportunities.

Regarding regional performance, G Sachs expected Mainland China to be the fastest-growing market, with 2Q value of new business increasing 13% YoY at constant exchange rates. Thailand benefited from sales of investment-linked insurance products, with 2Q returning to positive growth of 5% YoY, reversing the 18% decline in 1Q. Growth momentum in Singapore, Malaysia and other markets is expected to remain stable.

The broker expected AIA's after-tax operating profit for 1H to rise 10% YoY to USD3.957 billion, driven by strong insurance service results. Net free surplus generation (NFSG) is expected to increase 12% YoY to USD2.72 billion. Embedded value (EV) is forecast to rise 5% HoH to USD80.4 billion, in line with market expectations, benefiting from positive forex and investment changes, while annualized operating ROEV is estimated at 16%. Interim dividend is forecast to increase 10% YoY to USD0.069 per share.

G Sachs raised its FY2026 net profit forecast by 12%, mainly reflecting the strong stock market performance in 1H, which also lifted its 2026-2028 book value forecasts by 2%. Based on 1.4x forecast embedded value, the TP was maintained at HKD97, with the Buy rating reiterated. (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-08-03 12:25.)