--- title: "\"Explosive Rally Not Over Yet!\" Deutsche Bank Maintains $4,600 Gold Price Target" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/294755629.md" description: "Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Michael Hseuh stands firm against prevailing views, maintaining his forecast of $4,600 per ounce for gold in Q4 2026. In response to the BIS's \"bubble\" warning, Deutsche Bank refutes the concern using a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand: global central bank gold purchases hit a record $45 billion in Q2 2026, the bottom of the gold price correction may have been established near $3,900, and the explosive rally that began in August 2024 is not yet over" datetime: "2026-08-04T01:48:35.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/294755629.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294755629.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/294755629.md) --- # "Explosive Rally Not Over Yet!" Deutsche Bank Maintains $4,600 Gold Price Target The consolidation of gold prices over the past two months has not shaken Deutsche Bank's bullish stance. Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Michael Hseuh stated that **the "explosive surge phase" of gold prices, which began in August 2024, is not yet over, and he maintains his forecast of $4,600 per ounce for gold in Q4 2026.** This judgment is built on a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand data, discounting the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios. For the market, this statement means that although gold prices have mainly oscillated narrowly in the $4,000 to $4,100 range over the past two months or so, Deutsche Bank believes the current consolidation is not a trend reversal but a normal mid-rally correction within the explosive rally. However, at the same time, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) had previously characterized the gold market since August 2024 as being in a "bubble state" in December 2025, warning that similar historical situations are often accompanied by significant correction risks, creating some tension with Deutsche Bank's optimistic judgment. ## Triple Framework Support: Deutsche Bank Maintains $4,600 Target Hseuh constructed his analytical framework from three dimensions, ultimately concluding to maintain the forecast. First, relative commodity price ratios. Adjusting the relative price ratio of gold to commodities for long-term growth rates with 1986 as the baseline, this indicator suggests downside potential for gold prices to $2,600 per ounce. This is the most bearish signal for gold prices among the three frameworks. Second, the magnitude of price correction under statistical tests. Regression analysis of gold prices based on the BSADF (Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller) test statistic shows that both the upward extension and downward correction of gold prices in this cycle are milder than historical patterns. Hseuh pointed out that the bottom of this round of gold price correction may have already formed around $3,900 per ounce, rather than extending to the $3,700 per ounce suggested by the regression model. Third, the fair value model. After excluding excess official demand and adjusting for real interest rate convexity, Deutsche Bank's model still shows that the fair value of gold is expected to reach approximately $4,700 per ounce by the end of the year. **Combining the three frameworks, Hseuh believes that the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios should be discounted, and greater weight should be given to the fair value model—the latter aligns more closely with the empirical sensitivity of gold prices to financial market variables and Deutsche Bank's cross-asset research views.** ## Record Official Demand Provides Structural Support for Gold Prices Hseuh specifically pointed out that demand for gold from the official sector has risen to new highs. Data shows that official gold demand reached $45 billion in Q2 2026, setting a historical record. This data is regarded as one of the important input variables for the gold price fair value model. Although Deutsche Bank adjusted for excess official demand in its baseline model, the continuously rising scale of official gold purchases still constitutes structural support for gold prices and partly explains why the magnitude of the gold price correction in this round is more limited compared to historical experience. ## BIS Bubble Warning Coexists with Long-Term Outperformance Against Inflation Deutsche Bank's optimistic judgment does not ignore risks. Hseuh directly addressed the BIS's bubble characterization in the report. In December 2025, the BIS published research citing BSADF statistical tests, pointing out that the gold price trajectory had entered an "explosive zone" since August 2024, citing the 1980 gold market as a historical case—when gold prices surged during the "Great Inflation" period and then experienced a sharp correction. The BIS explicitly stated that breaking through critical price levels is "often accompanied by significant corrections." **In response, Hseuh focused on gold's long-term record of outperforming inflation. Data shows that although gold underperformed the US CPI for extended periods from 1957 to 1970 and from 1986 to 2000, over the entire cycle from 1957 to 2023, gold achieved a real return of 2.5%, while the average annual CPI increase was 3.7%. Hseuh believes that if recent data from 2024 to 2026 is included in the statistics, this outperformance margin will further expand.** **** On this basis, the core question raised by Hseuh is: After gold prices significantly outperformed CPI from 2024 to 2026, why should we not expect further underperformance? His answer points to the fair value model and official demand data—both indicate that the current rise in gold prices is not driven solely by speculative sentiment but has fundamental support, meaning the explosive rally phase is therefore not yet over. ### Related Stocks - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [IAU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [GLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLL.US.md) - [GLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [GOLD.AU](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.AU.md) - [DBK.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBK.DE.md) - [DB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DB.US.md) - [03KB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03KB.DE.md) - [DPB.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DPB.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [PRECIOUS-Gold eases as markets weigh Middle East uncertainty, inflation risks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294710218.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold holds ground with Middle East turmoil, US jobs data in focus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294771926.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold steady with Middle East turmoil, US jobs data in focus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294752351.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold ticks higher as markets brace for Fed decision](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294182322.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold slips but on track to end four-month losing streak](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294447838.md)