European Midday Briefing: Shares Up as Iran War Uncertainty Remains

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European shares rose on Wednesday as investors kept an eye on any new developments between the U.S. and Iran.

Oil prices rose after settling more than 5% lower in the previous session.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran by Wednesday. President Trump said good discussions were underway but warned of renewed strikes if the Strait of Hormuz wasn't reopened soon.

"Our thesis remains that we will get some version of a deal, as both the U.S. and Iran do not want to go back to a full-blown war," Jefferies said. The global economist warns, however, that this could be a "fudge rather than a lasting peace agreement," and Iran is unlikely to give up the control of the strait easily.

Despite upside risks to inflation, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are likely to keep interest rates on hold this year, Indosuez Wealth Management said.

"Our base case is that the ECB will stand pat; however, for this to hold, the Middle East situation will need to improve from here," it said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were higher Wednesday as investors now await a series of U.S. jobs data due later this week, including ​the ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls.

Forex:

The euro gained but ING said drought conditions in Europe could be limiting its gains against the dollar.

The dollar traded steady as uncertainty over the Iran war remains elevated.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields opened lower amid optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury yields extended Tuesday's decline as oil prices retreated further after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be near.

Energy:

In early European trading, Brent crude rose 1%, while WTI was up 0.3%.

Metals:

Gold prices climbed above $4,200 as signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East tempered fears over inflation and interest-rate hikes.

Iron ore

Iron ore prices were higher in early trading, supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions after expectations of strike action at BHP's Port Hedland operations, said Everbright Futures.

Copper

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose above the $14,000 mark, supported by tightening market conditions.

EMEA HEADLINES

Heineken Upbeat for Full Year After Volumes Pick Up Pace Despite Americas Weakness

Heineken backed its earnings outlook for the year after sales volumes picked up pace over the second quarter, boosted by premium labels and lower-alcohol products and despite continued weakness in some key beer markets.

The Dutch brewer said Wednesday that total volumes were 1.9% higher organically on year between April and June, picking up pace from the 1.2% growth booked over the first quarter. That boosted net revenue for the half-year to 14.83 billion euros ($17.10 billion) and operating profit to 2.17 billion euros, according to Heineken's preferred BEIA accounting method. Net profit rose 10% on year to 1.26 billion euros.

Chip Maker Infineon Forecasts Strong Revenue Growth on Booming AI Demand

Infineon Technologies said it expects strong revenue growth in the current fiscal year as the race to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure keeps adding fuel to red-hot semiconductor demand.

The German chip maker on Wednesday detailed its revenue guidance for the year to the end of September, projecting roughly 16.3 billion euros ($18.80 billion) compared with 14.66 billion euros it reported for fiscal 2025. The company had previously guided for significant revenue growth, but without specifying a figure.

Glencore Targets Secondary Listing in Australia

London-listed Glencore is planning a secondary listing on the Australian stock market a year after ditching a switch to New York.

Glencore said Wednesday that a listing on the ASX would broaden its shareholder base, improve trading liquidity and enhance its corporate financial flexibility. It said it intends to apply for the secondary listing and is targeting admission of its shares in October.

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Distribution Profit Nearly Doubles on Fuel Demand, Inventory Gains

Adnoc Distribution reported a sharp jump in quarterly profit as higher fuel sales, inventory gains and stronger margins lifted earnings.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution, known as Adnoc Distribution, posted a net profit of 1.31 billion U.A.E. dirhams ($358 million) for the three months ended June 30, up 94% from 677 million dirhams in the same period a year ago. Revenue rose 53% on year to 13.2 billion dirhams.

Siemens Energy Orders Reach Record Highs on U.S. Data-Center Demand

A wave of demand for U.S. data centers propelled Siemens Energy's orders to a record high, while profits more than tripled in its fiscal third quarter.

The German maker of energy equipment said it benefited from surging global demand for electricity in the third fiscal quarter, with order intake bolstered by the U.S.

GLOBAL NEWS

Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's leadership has made a high-stakes calculation in its showdown with President Trump: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is a nonnegotiable red line.

By asserting authority over a critical waterway for global crude-oil flows, Tehran is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the American economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel. With gasoline prices and inflation elevated, Tehran believes Trump will ultimately accept its terms ahead of fast-approaching midterm elections that could determine the future of his presidency.

Inflation Problem Isn't Only About Energy, Fed's Schmid Says

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve's inflation problem isn't only about energy, and bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% objective will require tighter policy.

Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Agricultural Economic Summit in Omaha, Neb., Schmid said measures of inflation that exclude energy are still running solidly above 2%, revealing an underlying trend in the data.

India's Central Bank Holds Rates as Iran Crisis Keeps Risks High

India's central bank held rates steady again on Wednesday as it continues to assess the economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.

The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep the repo rate at 5.25%, extending its pause to a fourth consecutive meeting as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions keep central banks on guard against inflation and currency risks.

White House AI Guidelines Exempt U.S. Open Models From Government Review

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration's new guidelines for powerful artificial-intelligence tools exempt open models made by U.S. companies, a gap that marks the White House's latest bid to ensure AI tools are safe without slowing down innovation.

Under a framework that administration officials discussed with executives from leading AI companies Tuesday, only makers of closed, proprietary U.S. models that demonstrate state-of-the-art capabilities in cybersecurity and hacking based on performance benchmarks would have to voluntarily submit those models to the government for testing before they are released, people familiar with the matter said.

Think Tech Is Spending Too Much? There's Trillions More to Come.

Big Spenders. Big Tech earnings season may be in the rearview mirror, but the large numbers linger on. And it goes well beyond the now infamous capital expenditure figures. Yes, five companies-Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms and Oracle-will spend about $800 billion in combined capital expenditures this year.

Hegseth's Pick for Top Army Job Is Losing Republican Support

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's pick for Army chief of staff is in jeopardy because of objections from Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and other Republican senators, according to U.S. officials and congressional sources.

Hegseth has been pushing to nominate Gen. Christopher LaNeve, who has served as acting Army chief of staff since Hegseth in April fired the former Army top officer, retired Gen. Randy George, according to U.S. officials. But without unanimous Republican support, a LaNeve nomination won't advance out of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

FAA Investigates Marine One Safety Incident in Washington

Federal aviation officials are reviewing an air-traffic safety incident Tuesday involving a military helicopter carrying President Trump.

The president's Marine One helicopter took off from the White House Tuesday afternoon, but air-traffic controllers hadn't halted commercial flights at nearby Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport as required under safety protocols, people familiar with the matter said.

AI Just Went Rogue Again. This Time It Turned to Deception.

Powerful AI models have once again gone rogue. This time, they were particularly sneaky.

A U.K. government-backed AI research institute said Tuesday that during routine tests, models built by OpenAI and Anthropic unexpectedly took "autonomous, unsanctioned action on the live internet, targeting real people and organisations." Most of the bad behavior happened over a three-day period in late July during one test.

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August 05, 2026 05:17 ET (09:17 GMT)

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