--- title: "Is 'The Glass Ceiling' for Memory Chip Price Hikes Approaching?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295243168.md" description: "Bernstein forecasts that in Q3 2026, the quarter-over-quarter increase in contract prices for both DRAM and NAND will narrow to approximately 20%. Weak demand from the PC and smartphone sectors, along with price caps in long-term agreements, are compressing the room for further price hikes. Although the supply shortage is expected to persist until 2027, the upside potential for memory prices is becoming limited, suggesting the price hike cycle may be nearing its end" datetime: "2026-08-07T13:35:25.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295243168.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295243168.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295243168.md) --- # Is 'The Glass Ceiling' for Memory Chip Price Hikes Approaching? The momentum of rising memory chip prices is clearly decelerating. According to the latest data from Bernstein, the quarter-over-quarter increase in contract prices for both DRAM and NAND in **Q3 2026 is expected to narrow to around 20%, a significant slowdown from Q2 and potentially below the market's latest expectations.** While the supply shortage is projected to continue into 2027, the scope for price increases is being doubly constrained by resistance on the demand side and price caps in long-term agreements (LTAs). According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, citing Bernstein's July memory price tracking report, July contract price data shows that **traditional DRAM prices rose by approximately 17% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, slightly higher than the firm's own model predictions but potentially lower than some of the market's latest expectations. For NAND, if SSDs are included, the overall increase is close to 20%, broadly aligning with the model, but likewise likely falling short of the most optimistic expectations.** Mark Li, an analyst at Bernstein, pointed out in the report that memory is increasingly becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications, and price caps set in some LTAs are also curbing further price increases. He believes that while the recent stock price correction offers an opportunity for a short-term technical rebound, the upside potential for prices is becoming limited. ## DRAM: Strong Server Demand, But Growing Resistance from PC and Mobile Segments The DRAM market is showing clear divergence. **Server demand remains robust, with customers anticipating tighter supply in 2027 and demonstrating a strong willingness to stock up.** According to TrendForce data, server DRAM contract prices rose by 8% to 15% month-over-month in July, with the overall quarter-over-quarter increase in Q3 expected to be between 13% and 18%. However, for customers who have signed LTAs with price caps, July prices were already close to the agreed ceiling, creating a noticeable gap compared to quotes for non-LTA customers. **The PC and mobile segments present a starkly different picture.** PC DRAM contract prices rose by 13% to 16% month-over-month in July, with a Q3 quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 17% expected. However, OEM manufacturers have raised the selling prices of complete systems due to rising memory costs, leading to an expected quarter-over-quarter decline in PC shipments of over 10% in Q3, which has significantly reduced procurement willingness. **In the mobile DRAM sector, TrendForce expects the quarter-over-quarter contract price increase in Q3 to be around 10%, a notable narrowing from Q2. As mobile OEM customers cut smartphone production plans, their resistance to price hikes has significantly strengthened.** Looking ahead to Q4, TrendForce predicts the price increase for mobile DRAM will narrow further to single digits. Consumer DRAM performance has been relatively outstanding, with contract prices rising by 12% to 16% month-over-month in July, and a Q3 quarter-over-quarter increase of 24% to 30% expected. However, TrendForce has observed that spot prices have begun to lag behind contract prices, hinting that demand may be peaking. ## NAND: Wafer Price Hikes Lose Steam, SSDs Become the Main Support The divergence in the NAND market is even more pronounced. Wafer contract prices remained largely flat in July, as module manufacturers refused to accept further price hikes due to weak consumer demand, causing trading volumes to shrink drastically. TrendForce noted that **amid the current slump in consumer demand, module manufacturers believe NAND wafer prices are already on the high side and prefer to digest their own inventory.** Mobile NAND (eMMC/UFS) has performed relatively well, with TrendForce expecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of around 20% in Q3, primarily driven by a catch-up logic to align with eSSD profitability levels. Notably, Chinese suppliers offered lower prices during this round of hikes, thereby securing a larger share of shipments. SSDs are the core support for the NAND sector. Bernstein believes that contract prices for client and enterprise SSDs will rise by approximately 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, pulling the overall NAND increase close to 20%. However, the firm also pointed out that the pace of NAND price increases will continue to slow, with the peak likely occurring at some point in 2027, and intensified competition from China posing structural pressure. ## Short-Term Rebound Window Exists, But Upside Is Becoming Limited Bernstein maintains its "Outperform" rating for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, with target prices of KRW 440,000, KRW 3.3 million, USD 1,300, and USD 3,000, respectively; it maintains an "Underperform" rating for KIOXIA with a target price of JPY 40,000. The firm believes that **the memory supply shortage will persist until 2027, keeping prices at high levels, but the room for further increases has been significantly compressed.** On one hand, PC and mobile customers have stable or even rising inventory levels, and their acceptance of price hikes has dropped sharply after significantly cutting shipment plans; on the other hand, price caps embedded in some LTA agreements are limiting the extent of price increases for server DRAM. Furthermore, the continuous rise in memory costs has begun to burden both AI and non-AI applications, and signs of pressure on the demand side cannot be ignored. Bernstein points out that **the recent correction in memory stocks provides an entry opportunity for a short-term technical rebound**, **but investors should be wary of the risk that the price hike cycle is entering its final stages—high prices may already be within sight, rather than remaining out of reach.** ### Related Stocks - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [SKHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHY.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) ## Related News & Research - [12:51 ETKOWIN Showcases full-line Storage Portfolio at FMS 2026: High-performance Storage Products Drives AI Innovation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295260779.md) - [13:04 ETKOWIN präsentiert komplettes Speicherportfolio auf der FMS 2026: Hochleistungs-Speicherprodukte treiben KI-Innovationen voran](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295305734.md) - [Winbond to expand Kaohsiung fab](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295146469.md) - [SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler Expects PC and Smartphone Sales to Decline in 2026, But Sees NAND Recovery Ahead: Here's Why](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295057774.md) - [SanDisk Stock's 'Secular Opportunity:' BofA Sees 100% Rally](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295125817.md)