--- title: "Is the \"Ceiling\" for Memory Chip Price Hikes Approaching?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295243824.md" description: "Bernstein data shows a significant slowdown in the momentum of memory chip price increases, with quarter-on-quarter contract price growth for DRAM and NAND in Q3 2026 narrowing to approximately 20%, below market expectations. Although supply shortages are expected to persist until 2027, upside potential is limited by demand-side resistance and price caps in long-term agreements. While server DRAM demand remains strong, shipments for PCs and mobile devices are declining due to rising costs, leading to reduced procurement willingness and a diverging market landscape" datetime: "2026-08-07T13:38:38.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295243824.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295243824.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295243824.md) --- # Is the "Ceiling" for Memory Chip Price Hikes Approaching? The momentum behind rising memory chip prices is slowing significantly. The latest data from Bernstein indicates that the quarter-on-quarter increase in contract prices for DRAM and NAND in the third quarter of 2026 has narrowed to approximately 20%, a substantial deceleration from the second quarter and potentially below the latest market expectations. Although the supply shortage is expected to continue into 2027, the room for further price hikes is being constrained by dual pressures: resistance on the demand side and price caps embedded in long-term agreements. According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, citing Bernstein's July memory price tracking report, July contract price data reveals that **the quarter-on-quarter increase for conventional DRAM in the third quarter is approximately 17%, slightly higher than the firm's own model predictions but potentially lower than some of the latest market expectations. For NAND, if SSDs are included, the overall increase approaches 20%, broadly aligning with the model, yet it may still fall short of the most optimistic forecasts.** Mark Li, an analyst at Bernstein, pointed out in the report that memory is increasingly becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications, with price caps set in certain Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) also curbing further price increases. He believes that while the recent stock price correction offers an opportunity for a short-term technical rebound, the upside potential for prices is becoming limited. ## DRAM: Strong Server Demand, But Growing Resistance in PC and Mobile Segments The DRAM market is showing clear divergence. **Server demand remains robust, with customers anticipating tighter supply in 2027 and demonstrating a strong willingness to stock up.** According to TrendForce data, server DRAM contract prices rose by 8% to 15% month-on-month in July, with the overall quarter-on-quarter increase for the third quarter projected at 13% to 18%. However, for customers who have signed LTAs with price caps, July prices have already approached the agreed ceilings, creating a noticeable gap compared to quotes for non-LTA customers. **The PC and mobile sectors present a starkly different picture.** PC DRAM contract prices rose by 13% to 16% month-on-month in July, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of about 17% for the third quarter. However, OEM manufacturers have raised complete unit prices due to rising memory costs, leading to an expected quarter-on-quarter decline in PC shipments of over 10% in the third quarter, which has significantly dampened procurement willingness. **In the mobile DRAM segment, TrendForce expects the quarter-on-quarter contract price increase for the third quarter to be around 10%, a notable narrowing from the second quarter. As mobile OEM customers cut smartphone production plans, their resistance to price hikes has strengthened significantly.** Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, TrendForce predicts that the price increase for mobile DRAM will narrow further to single digits. Consumer DRAM performance has been relatively outstanding, with contract prices rising by 12% to 16% month-on-month in July, and the quarter-on-quarter increase for the third quarter expected to reach 24% to 30%. However, TrendForce has observed that spot prices have begun to lag behind contract prices, suggesting that demand may be peaking. ## NAND: Wafer Price Hikes Lose Steam, SSDs Become Primary Support The divergence in the NAND market is even more pronounced. Wafer contract prices remained largely flat in July, as module manufacturers refused to accept further price increases due to weak consumer-end demand, causing trading volumes to shrink drastically. TrendForce noted that **amidst the current sluggish consumer demand, module manufacturers believe NAND wafer prices are already on the high side and prefer to digest their existing inventory.** Mobile NAND (eMMC/UFS) has performed relatively well. TrendForce expects a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 20% for the third quarter, primarily driven by a catch-up logic to align profitability levels with eSSDs. Notably, Chinese suppliers offered lower prices during this round of hikes, thereby securing a larger share of shipments. SSDs are the core support for the NAND sector. Bernstein believes that contract prices for client and enterprise SSDs will rise by about 20% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, pulling the overall NAND increase close to 20%. However, the firm also pointed out that the momentum of NAND price increases will continue to slow, with the peak likely occurring at some point in 2027, and intensified competition from China posing structural pressure. ## Short-Term Rebound Window Exists, But Upside Potential Is Limited Bernstein maintains its "Outperform" rating for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, with target prices of KRW 440,000, KRW 3.3 million, USD 1,300, and USD 3,000, respectively. It maintains an "Underperform" rating for KIOXIA, with a target price of JPY 40,000. The firm believes that **the memory supply shortage will persist until 2027, keeping prices at high levels, but the scope for further increases has been significantly compressed.** On one hand, PC and mobile customers have stable or even rising inventory levels, and their acceptance of price hikes has dropped sharply after significantly cutting shipment plans. On the other hand, price caps embedded in some LTA agreements are limiting the extent of price increases for server DRAM. Furthermore, the continuous rise in memory costs has begun to burden both AI and non-AI applications, making the signs of pressure on the demand side impossible to ignore. Bernstein points out that **the recent correction in memory stocks provides an entry opportunity for a short-term technical rebound**, but **investors need to be wary of the risk that the price hike cycle is entering its final stages—high prices may already be within sight, rather than a distant prospect.** ``` The above exciting content comes from Zhuifeng Trading Desk. For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join 【 **Zhuifeng Trading Desk ▪ Annual Membership**】 Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investors bear full responsibility for decisions made based on this content. ``` ### Related Stocks - [AB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AB.US.md) - [SSNGY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSNGY.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [SMSN.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMSN.UK.md) ## Related News & Research - [REG - Higher Education Sec - LSE doc re Investor Report](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295375225.md) - [12:51 ETKOWIN Showcases full-line Storage Portfolio at FMS 2026: High-performance Storage Products Drives AI Innovation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295260779.md) - [13:04 ETKOWIN präsentiert komplettes Speicherportfolio auf der FMS 2026: Hochleistungs-Speicherprodukte treiben KI-Innovationen voran](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295305734.md) - [Winbond to expand Kaohsiung fab](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295146469.md) - [The next AI boom in stock market after memory chip trade may be photonics](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295068464.md)