---
title: "Guo Lei of GF Securities: Exports Are the Current Macro Condition for Asset Pricing"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295248062.md"
description: "Guo Lei of GF Securities believes that China's exports in July rose by 23.9% year-on-year, with cumulative growth of 18.5% in the first seven months, reaching the second-highest level in nearly 15 years. The main drivers were global economic prosperity and AI dividends, with the semiconductor industry chain playing a prominent role. The combined export growth of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment reached 92.7% year-on-year, contributing 8.4 percentage points. However, marginal slowdowns are emerging, and the second half of the year may shift from \"accelerated expansion\" to \"decelerated expansion.\" High-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles and ships maintain high growth, and exports remain a key macro condition for pricing the current AI industry chain"
datetime: "2026-08-07T14:15:11.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295248062.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295248062.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295248062.md)
---

# Guo Lei of GF Securities: Exports Are the Current Macro Condition for Asset Pricing

July exports rose by 23.9% year-on-year, **slightly lower than in June, but still representing the second-highest level this year. Driven by July's exports, the cumulative year-on-year export growth for the first seven months further increased to 18.5%. From an annual perspective, this growth rate is the second highest in the past 15 years (since 2012), second only to 2021 when global trade underwent concentrated repair.**

The year-on-year export growth for January-February 2026 was 21.8%, while for March through June it was 2.5%, 14.0%, 19.3%, and 27.0%, respectively. The year-on-year growth for July was 23.9%.

**The backdrop includes the relatively high prosperity of the global economy during the same period. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was the highest of the year, and the Services PMI was also slightly higher than in June. The final Eurozone Composite PMI for July was 52, higher than June's 50, marking the strongest business activity growth in eight months. Despite the renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of extreme weather caused by El Niño in July, the global economy and trade remained unaffected. The restructuring dividends brought about by the AI technology revolution served as an important driver and hedge.**

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 55.6, higher than the previous value of 53.3; the ISM Services PMI in July was 54.1, higher than the previous value of 54.0.

In our previous report, "Restructuring and Verification: Mid-2026 Overseas Macro Outlook," we pointed out that there were other fundamentals in 2026, such as high energy prices caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the impact of Trump invoking Section 122 of the so-called "Trade Act of 1974" to impose tariffs globally. However, these supply shocks did not substantially affect the economic growth and trade activity of major economies. The restructuring dividends brought about by the AI technology revolution served as an important hedge.

**The semiconductor industry chain is one of the main drivers of exports. In July, the combined year-on-year export growth of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment was 92.7%. Excluding these two categories, the year-on-year export growth was 15.5%, meaning these two categories contributed 8.4 percentage points to export growth. If we consider that the driving effect of the AI industry chain on exports also includes non-ferrous metals, fine chemicals, power generation equipment, and some building materials, the actual contribution is even higher than the above figures. Intra-industry chain trade also drove high import growth, with integrated circuit imports rising by 71.1% year-on-year in July, accounting for 22% of monthly imports.**

In July, integrated circuit exports rose by 116.6% year-on-year, and automatic data processing equipment exports rose by 67.4% year-on-year. The combined year-on-year export growth for integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment was 92.7%.

In July, imports rose by 27.5% year-on-year, with integrated circuit imports up 71.1% year-on-year. Excluding integrated circuits, import growth was 18.8% year-on-year.

**However, it is worth noting the marginal turning point in year-on-year growth. In July, both the absolute value and growth rate of South Korea's semiconductor exports were slightly lower than in June; Vietnam's exports of electronic parts, computers, and accessories were slightly lower than in June; and China's integrated circuit export growth was also slightly lower than the high level seen in June. We highlighted this trend in our previous report. As the period of unilateral order increases has passed, price contributions have declined, and the base has risen, under a neutral scenario, integrated circuit exports in the second half of the year may shift from "accelerated expansion" to "decelerated expansion."**

In July, South Korea's semiconductor exports rose by 178.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 199.5%.

In July, Vietnam's exports of electronic parts, computers, and accessories rose by 55.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 61.2% year-on-year growth in June.

In July, China's integrated circuit exports rose by 116.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 121.9%.

In our previous report, "Semiconductor Exports from China and South Korea Continue to Accelerate in June," we argued that: (1) Current exports correspond to orders placed several months ago. Looking at the PMI new export orders, there was a round of high-slope acceleration in March-April, but May-June saw relative volatility; (2) The first half of the year included contributions from price increases across the industry chain. In terms of export volume, China's integrated circuit export year-on-year growth in April, May, and June was 3.6%, 2.0%, and -0.4%, respectively. TrendForce expects the increase in memory prices to converge in the third quarter. (3) The base in the third and fourth quarters is slightly higher than in the first half. Therefore, under a neutral scenario, integrated circuit exports in the second half of the year may shift from "accelerated expansion" to "decelerated expansion."

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ea935040-4221-4642-83b4-4a5225d39484.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

**In addition to semiconductors, products with high export growth rates include high-end manufacturing goods such as automobiles and ships. In July, automobile exports rose by 60.4% year-on-year, and ship exports rose by 92.4% year-on-year. Excluding the four major categories of automobiles, ships, integrated circuits, and automatic data processing equipment, the year-on-year export growth for July was 12.5%. The global expansion of China's high-end manufacturing products is a trend. The China Passenger Car Association pointed out that Chinese cars accounted for 31% of the global market share in the first half of 2026. In the first half of the year, the total market share of five mainstream Chinese car companies in Europe was approximately 11%; in June 2026, the sales volume share of Chinese brand plug-in hybrid vehicles in this European segment reached 34%, setting a new historical record. Data released by the Ministry of Natural Resources on August 3 showed that in the first half of this year, China's new orders, completed orders, and order backlog for sea-going ships all increased comprehensively, maintaining a leading international market share, with new orders increasing by 105.2% year-on-year.**

According to statistics from China Automotive News, the ranking of the top ten countries for Chinese car exports in the first half of 2026 changed significantly. Russia returned to the top spot, Brazil jumped to second place, and Italy and Algeria newly entered the top ten. The top five markets with the largest year-on-year increase in volume were Russia, Brazil, the UK, Algeria, and Australia.

**The export growth rate of general mechanical equipment has also accelerated significantly in recent months, reaching 31.4% year-on-year in July. General mechanical equipment includes basic components such as pumps, valves, compressors, fans, gas separation equipment, refrigeration equipment, reducers, and bearings. In addition to potential demand from US AI infrastructure construction, the demand for general equipment may stem from the expansion of global manufacturing investment, particularly industrialization in Global South countries, such as manufacturing or infrastructure construction in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe.**

From January to May 2026, the year-on-year export growth of general mechanical equipment was 3.9%, rising to 15.2% in June and 31.4% in July.

**Over the past two years, a resonant closed loop has formed between US AI capital expenditure and Asian semiconductor manufacturing and exports. In a sense, the high growth in exports is a macro condition and verification clue for the pricing of the AI industry chain. Judging from the latest data in July, the characteristics of semiconductor exports from Asia and China show a preliminary, yet-to-be-confirmed slight slowdown in the second derivative; however, the characteristic of high growth in the first derivative (year-on-year) has not changed. This is, in a sense, a reflection of the current fundamentals of the industry chain.**

Source: GF Macro Guo Lei

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