--- title: "Weekend Debate: \"Short Memory, Long Optical\"?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295314862.md" description: "Prominent memory bull Jukan has turned cautious in the short term, citing three reasons: First, after the functional failure of the South Korean leveraged ETF market, related investors face redemption pressures, which could bring additional selling pressure to memory stocks. Second, NVIDIA is adjusting its next-generation AI system architecture; Rubin Ultra may reduce HBM configuration per rack and instead use optical interconnects to link multiple racks. Third, market expectations that memory prices will peak in the next two quarters are strengthening. In contrast, renowned investor \"White-Haired Stock God\" Serenity argues that memory fundamentals remain unchanged, and the market is merely rotating \"between bottlenecks.\"" datetime: "2026-08-09T05:21:27.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295314862.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295314862.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295314862.md) --- # Weekend Debate: "Short Memory, Long Optical"? On Friday, U.S. memory and optical communication sectors showed significant divergence. **Citigroup significantly lowered Micron's target price**, putting pressure on memory stocks across the board; meanwhile, **AAOI's better-than-expected earnings report ignited the optical communication sector**, with Coherent surging 13% in a single day. Against this backdrop, the **"short memory, long optical" trading strategy sparked intense debate over the weekend**. The framework was first proposed by Jukan, a Citrini analyst widely recognized as a memory bull. He stated on platform X that **some hedge funds have already begun building positions based on this thesis**. Immediately, renowned investor "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity countered, arguing that memory fundamentals remain unchanged and that the market is simply rotating "between bottlenecks." ## Citigroup Lowers Micron Target Price as Expectations of Peaking Memory Prices Rise On Friday, Micron (MU) fell about 1%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped over 2%, and the decline extended to Asia—SK Hynix fell more than 4%, while Samsung and Kioxia also declined. The pressure stemmed from Citigroup. Analyst Atif Malik maintained his "Buy" rating on Micron but **slashed the target price from $1,400 to $1,150**. After communicating with memory suppliers and industry participants, Citigroup pointed out that **DRAM and NAND price growth rates will gradually slow over the next four quarters, with prices expected to peak in May next year**. Specifically, Citigroup set its quarter-on-quarter DRAM price growth expectations for the next four quarters at **23%/9%/2%/0%**, respectively, with a projected 3% quarter-on-quarter decline in the second half of 2027; **NAND price expectations were adjusted to 29%/7%/0%/-1%**, with the quarter-on-quarter decline widening to 5% in the second half. Citigroup attributed the slowdown in price growth to **capacity expansion by Chinese memory manufacturers ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC)**. ## AAOI Beats Expectations, Igniting the Optical Communication Sector In sharp contrast to memory, the optical communication sector saw broad strength. U.S. optical module manufacturer AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) reported **Q2 revenue up 86% year-over-year to $191.9 million, with data center business exceeding the $100 million mark for the first time**. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.06, beating the upper end of guidance. The company provided Q3 revenue guidance of $255 million to $290 million, maintaining its full-year target of approximately $1.1 billion. On the day, **Coherent surged 13%, Lumentum rose 6%, and Corning gained 5%**, while AAOI itself rose 9%. In terms of product mix, 400G revenue was $48.4 million, up more than fourfold year-over-year. More indicative was the performance of **800G—Q2 revenue reached $12.8 million, up more than tenfold year-over-year and doubling quarter-on-quarter**. Management expects nearly a fivefold quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. The growth focus is accelerating its shift from 100G and 400G to higher speeds. Signals from the production side were equally strong. Management revealed that **current customer demand exceeds supply capacity by 20% to 40%**, meaning growth is constrained not by demand but by capacity. Current monthly capacity for 800G and 1.6T modules is close to 200,000 units, with plans to **exceed 650,000 units by the end of 2026 and over 930,000 units by the end of 2027**. CEO Lin Zongnan predicted that **1.6T revenue could exceed $70 million in Q4**, adding that "it would not be surprising if it doubles in Q1 next year." However, he admitted that supply of key 1.6T components such as DSPs and TIAs remains tight, and the main constraint on Q4 deliveries comes from materials rather than capacity itself. Analysts believe AAOI's better-than-expected performance serves as a positive indicator for Lumentum and Coherent, which are due to report earnings soon. Both companies are backed by NVIDIA's shareholdings and are viewed by the market as "picks and shovels" plays for AI computing infrastructure. ## Bulls Turning? "Short Memory, Long Optical" Sparks Weekend Debate What ignited the weekend discussion was a post by Jukan, the famous memory bull, on social media. He posted on platform X that the market might need to adopt a "short memory, long optical" strategy in the short term, giving three reasons: First, after the functional failure of the South Korean leveraged ETF market, related investors face redemption pressures, which could bring additional selling pressure to memory stocks. Second, **NVIDIA is adjusting its next-generation AI system architecture; Rubin Ultra may reduce HBM configuration per rack and instead use optical interconnects to link multiple racks**. Third, market expectations that memory prices will peak in the next two quarters are strengthening. Jukan emphasized that he remains constructive on memory in the long term but is cautious in the short term. He pointed out that **the focus of AI infrastructure investment is shifting from HBM capacity to overall data center architectural efficiency**, with high-speed optical interconnects being a key direction. "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity promptly joined the discussion with a clear stance: **still bullish on memory**. Serenity's core argument is that **what has changed primarily is the stock price, not the fundamentals**. He noted that lasers from Coherent and Lumentum had already sold out two years' worth of capacity when their stocks fell in July, and the demand imbalance at AAOI was already clear in the previous quarter's conference call. During the steep drop in July, the fundamentals of these companies did not deteriorate at all; "only the liquidated stock prices changed." However, at that time, many investors called AAOI a "scam" when it fell to $75, only to turn bullish now that it has risen to $140. "But the bottlenecks in optical transceivers and indium phosphide substrates haven't changed at all, and may even have worsened." Regarding memory, Serenity noted seeing significant panic selling by retail investors, "but these same people were cheering a month ago for Micron signing 16 supply agreements and Samsung's record operating profits." Serenity believes that storage optimization in Rubin Ultra is something NVIDIA does with every generation, and that the operating profit levels corresponding to memory's current market capitalization are "absurd," especially given that memory is becoming a structural demand. The supply-demand imbalance next year will only become more severe. "AAOI is the same company at $140 as it was at $75. Samsung is the same company at a $1.5 trillion market cap as it was at $980 billion. **What has changed is only valuation and narrative—usually noise—and the market is rotating between sectors,**" Serenity wrote. ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVDY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDS.US.md) - [NVD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.US.md) - [NVDQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [NVDX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDU.US.md) - [NVDL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDB.US.md) - [NVDG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDG.US.md) - [NVDO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDO.US.md) - [NVDW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDW.US.md) - [NVYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVYY.US.md) - [NYYY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NYYY.US.md) - [DIPS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIPS.US.md) - [MAGX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MAGX.US.md) - [03121.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03121.HK.md) - [09388.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09388.HK.md) - [C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C.US.md) - [MU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MU.US.md) - [AAOI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAOI.US.md) - [COHR.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/COHR.US.md) - [SNDK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [LITE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LITE.US.md) - [GLW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLW.US.md) - [C-R.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/C-R.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Firmus nearly doubles valuation to over $10.5 billion in 4 months with Nvidia-backed fundraise](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295169706.md) - [Taiwan's Wistron says AI server demand remains strong, quarterly profit up 128%](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294824573.md) - ['Playing With Fire': Investor Sounds the Alarm on Nvidia Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295283156.md) - [OpenAI boosts AI chip dreams with AI patents from Altman-backed startup](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295148688.md) - [Aeva Technologies Q2 revenue rises, beats analyst expectations](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295008972.md)