--- title: "CITIC Construction Investment: U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, aiding the continued rebound of non-ferrous metals" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295336784.md" description: "CITIC Construction Investment's research report pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, weakening interest rate hike expectations and helping gold prices reach a new seven-week high. Against the backdrop of supply disruptions, decent consumption, and capital inflows underweighting the non-ferrous sector, prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum are strong. The bank believes that excellent fundamentals drive non-ferrous commodities to maintain strong momentum, and the PE of non-ferrous equities has not yet fully recovered, leaving room for further increases" datetime: "2026-08-09T23:40:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295336784.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295336784.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295336784.md) --- # CITIC Construction Investment: U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, aiding the continued rebound of non-ferrous metals According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Construction Investment released a research report stating that last week, non-ferrous metals showed a trend of rising in tandem with stocks and futures. On one hand, non-ferrous metal prices remained strong against the backdrop of supply-side disruptions, decent consumption, and easing expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes, with gold prices reaching a seven-week high, copper prices approaching historical highs, and aluminum prices reclaiming the 24,000 mark. On the other hand, the extreme market style is rebalancing, and the underweight non-ferrous sector continues to attract capital inflows due to its excellent performance and low PE ratios. The firm believes that non-ferrous commodity prices are likely to maintain strong momentum driven by excellent fundamentals; the current PE recovery of non-ferrous equities is still insufficient, leaving room for further increases. ## CITIC Construction Investment's main viewpoints are as follows: **Gold: Weak U.S. employment data reduces interest rate hike expectations, gold prices reach a seven-week high.** Last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for July unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, while economists had predicted an increase of 80,000. The unexpected decline in non-farm employment weakened the likelihood of interest rate hikes this year, with the Federal Reserve's monitoring tool indicating that traders believe the probability of a rate hike in September is about 44%, down from 57% before the report was released. The cooling of interest rate hike expectations has supported a rebound in gold prices. In the medium to long term, the structural expansion of deficits in major economies, central banks' strategic gold purchases, and escalating geopolitical conflicts continue to maintain a premium for gold over sovereign credit systems. The World Gold Council's "2026 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" shows that 89% of central bank reserve managers expect global central bank gold reserves to continue increasing in the next 12 months. **Copper: C-L price spread expands, non-U.S. inventories continue to be siphoned, copper prices approach historical highs.** Since 630, the Comex-LME price spread has been expanding, highlighting the market's bet on President Biden's announcement of additional tariffs on copper on September 30. As the C-L spread widens, arbitrage activities transporting goods to the U.S. have intensified, leading to a continued decline in non-U.S. regional inventories, with spot copper becoming increasingly tight, and LME copper (0-3) rising to $115 per ton. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned the export of copper concentrate, with the country exporting 18,900 metric tons of copper concentrate in the first quarter of 2026. Although the quantity is not large, it reflects the intensifying resource protectionism and raises market concerns about supply stability. The global increase in copper mines this year has once again fallen short of expectations, with some leading mining companies lowering their copper production guidance for the year. The spot TC for copper concentrate has dropped to -$173 per ton, with low non-U.S. inventories and weak resilience to shocks, combined with weakened interest rate hike expectations, leading copper prices to approach historical highs. **Aluminum: Inventory decline shifts from quantitative to qualitative change, aluminum prices attempt to stabilize at the 24,000 yuan mark.** This week, LME aluminum rose by 2.3%, and domestic inventories officially fell below 1 million tons. Coupled with a favorable overall atmosphere for non-ferrous metals, this supports aluminum prices. This year, the Middle East has reduced production capacity by 2.86 million tons, and Mozambique has shut down 520,000 tons of capacity, resulting in a global electrolytic aluminum supply gap of 1.2 million tons this year. Domestic and foreign inventories continue to deplete, with domestic inventories about to fall below 900,000 tons, and LME inventories dropping below 250,000 tons. The Middle East has begun to resume production, and there is attention on the commissioning of millions of tons of new capacity overseas, but those will be future production increases and do not address the current shortage. The short-term gap will drive a rebound in aluminum prices, and outstanding performance from aluminum companies will push aluminum-related stocks to recover **Risk Warning** 1. A significant global economic recession and a sharp decline in consumption. The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from the previous 2.3% to 2.6% in its latest "Global Economic Outlook," but economic growth has shown a slowing trend in recent years. If the global economy falls into a deep recession, it will have a huge impact on the consumption of non-ferrous metals. 2. Out-of-control inflation in the United States, with the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy more than expected, and a strong dollar suppressing equity asset prices. The U.S. is unable to effectively control inflation and continues to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve has implemented significant consecutive interest rate hikes, but services, especially rents and wages, have shown stickiness that restricts the decline in inflation. If the Federal Reserve maintains high-intensity interest rate hikes, it will be unfavorable for non-ferrous metals priced in dollars. 3. Domestic new energy sector consumption growth is below expectations, and the real estate sector continues to be sluggish. Although policies on the real estate sales side have been relaxed to varying degrees, residents' willingness to purchase remains insufficient, and the progress in resolving the debt risks of real estate companies is not smooth. If sales continue to show no improvement, the completion of real estate projects in the later stage will face the risk of stalling, which will be detrimental to the consumption of certain non-ferrous metals in the domestic market ### Related Stocks - [SGOL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [GLL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLL.US.md) - [GLDW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDW.US.md) - [GLDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [UGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [600489.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) - [159871.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159871.CN.md) - [518850.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [561330.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/561330.CN.md) - [512400.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512400.CN.md) - [159608.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159608.CN.md) - [DBB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBB.US.md) - [159876.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159876.CN.md) - [159881.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159881.CN.md) - [601066.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601066.CN.md) - [06066.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06066.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [PRECIOUS-Gold hits seven-week peak as market participants weigh Hormuz reopening prospects](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295067079.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold holds ground with Middle East turmoil, US jobs data in focus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294771926.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold hits seven-week high as weak U.S. jobs data dents rate hike bets](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295242542.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold steadies after scaling seven-week peak, US inflation data looms](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295367766.md) - [LIVE MARKETS-Could the debasement trade make a comeback?](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295392583.md)