--- title: "RMB Exchange Rate Against USD Hits Three-and-a-Half-Year High: What’s Next?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295415439.md" description: "On August 10, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the USD hit a three-and-a-half-year high. Experts pointed out that robust exports, sustained high trade surpluses, and clarified expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes supported the currency's strength. In the short term, the RMB is expected to fluctuate bidirectionally around 6.75, with a range of 6.7 to 7.0 for the second half of the year. The full-year trend is projected to be \"rising first, then stabilizing,\" while remaining in an appreciation channel in the medium term" datetime: "2026-08-10T13:34:11.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295415439.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295415439.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295415439.md) --- # RMB Exchange Rate Against USD Hits Three-and-a-Half-Year High: What’s Next? On August 10, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the USD closed at 6.7442, up 59 basis points from the previous trading session, hitting a new high since February 2, 2023. Regarding the midpoint rate, on August 10, **the RMB To USD Midpoint Rate was adjusted upward by 20 basis points to 6.7884, reaching its highest level since February 10, 2023.** Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, told Interface News that **the main factor supporting the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate this year has been the robust performance of exports. Currently, under the continuous optimization of trade structure, the high growth rate of exports is expected to continue, and the trade surplus is also expected to remain at a high level.** "China's economy has demonstrated strong resilience amidst a complex and volatile external environment and the domestic transition between old and new growth drivers. Meanwhile, the stable operation of the foreign exchange market has laid a solid foundation for keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level. It is expected that in August, the RMB exchange rate will maintain a stable pattern of bidirectional fluctuations around 6.75," Wen Bin stated. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, told Interface News that **given that the drag effect of Middle East conflicts on the global economy will gradually become apparent, there are still variables in China's external economic and trade environment in the later period, and the sustainability of the AI investment boom remains to be observed. Coupled with the expectation that the US Dollar Index will continue its relatively stable state seen since the beginning of the year, the RMB will generally maintain a pattern of inverse movement against the USD with relatively small fluctuations in the second half of the year. The possibility of reproducing the continuous and rapid appreciation seen in the first half of the year is low; it will more likely be in a state of bidirectional fluctuation, with an expected range of 6.7 to 7.0. Overall, the full-year trend of the RMB exchange rate is likely to be "rising first, then stabilizing."** Huaxi Securities pointed out in a research report that the trade surplus is expected to remain large in scale. The continued release of willingness by enterprises and residents to settle foreign exchange, the clarification of expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, stable expectations for domestic monetary policy, the continuation of a relatively stable state in the interest rate differential between China and the US, the further advancement of RMB internationalization, and the continued growth in international demand for the RMB mean that the RMB will remain in an appreciation channel in the medium term. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate against the USD will move closer to 6.7. Liu Tao, a senior researcher at the International Finance Institute of the China Chief Economists Forum, told Interface News that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and even for a longer period in the future, the RMB will face a trend of strategic appreciation. Liu Tao believes that in the next five years, based on market supply and demand, the RMB may appreciate moderately against the USD amidst fluctuations. In 2026, the midpoint rate of the USD against the RMB may fluctuate in the range of 6.6–7.0; the fluctuation range of the offshore RMB exchange rate may be slightly larger, overall showing a trend of "bidirectional fluctuation and moderate strengthening." The People's Bank of China held its work conference for the second half of 2026 on August 1, summarizing the work done since the beginning of 2026, analyzing the current situation, and deploying tasks for the next stage. At the work conference, the central bank specifically mentioned the need to continue doing a good job in the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies. Adhere to the decisive role of the market in exchange rate formation, maintain exchange rate flexibility, strengthen expectation guidance, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level. At the recent exchange management work exchange meeting for the second half of 2026, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that since the beginning of 2026, China's foreign exchange market has demonstrated strong vitality and resilience under complex circumstances. The RMB exchange rate has floated bidirectionally, rising steadily, and cross-border capital flows have maintained a net inflow. Regarding the key tasks for foreign exchange management in the second half of 2026, the meeting proposed building a strong breakwater and seawall against external shocks. Strengthen the monitoring of cross-border capital flows, continuously improve macroprudential management and expectation management, and adopt comprehensive measures to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market involves risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. 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