--- title: "EIA Raises Brent Crude and Refined Product Price Forecasts 2026 Average Brent Price Up 6.1%, Gasoline Up 5.9%, Diesel Up 8.5%" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295569247.md" description: "The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for the average spot price of Brent crude in 2026 from $82 per barrel to $87; the forecast for U.S. wholesale gasoline prices was raised from $2.75 per gallon to $2.91; and the forecast for U.S. wholesale diesel prices was raised from $3.10 per gallon to $3.37. The EIA stated that its latest forecast assumes severe transportation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist until August, with oil prices expected to fall again as Middle Eastern production capacity gradually recovers in early 2027, leading to increased supply" datetime: "2026-08-11T19:36:36.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295569247.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295569247.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295569247.md) --- # EIA Raises Brent Crude and Refined Product Price Forecasts 2026 Average Brent Price Up 6.1%, Gasoline Up 5.9%, Diesel Up 8.5% The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that due to continued severe restrictions on crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply disruptions are greater than previously expected, prompting the EIA to raise its future oil price forecasts. The EIA expects **the average spot price of Brent crude in 2026 to be $87 per barrel, higher than the previous forecast of $82 per barrel**; it expects the average Brent price in the third quarter of 2026 to be around $85 per barrel, with oil prices remaining roughly at the levels seen in the first week of August in the coming months. The EIA stated that its latest forecast assumes **severe transportation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist until August**. As a result, the volume of oil transported through the strait will further decrease in the coming months, and global crude oil inventory draws will be larger than previously expected, keeping oil prices at relatively high levels. **As Middle Eastern production capacity gradually recovers in early 2027, increased supply is expected to push oil prices back down. The average price for 2027 is now forecast at $69 per barrel, up from the previous estimate of $65 per barrel.** On Tuesday, Brent crude futures rose 1.2% to $88.8 per barrel. ## Refined Product Price Forecasts Also Raised Expectations of rising oil prices have also transmitted to the U.S. refined products market. The EIA **raised its 2026 forecast for U.S. wholesale diesel prices from $3.10 per gallon to $3.37 per gallon, an increase of 8.5%**; the 2027 forecast was raised from $2.47 to $2.62, an increase of 6.3%. For gasoline, the EIA **raised its 2026 forecast for U.S. wholesale gasoline prices from $2.75 per gallon to $2.91, an increase of 5.9%**; the 2027 forecast was raised from $2.13 to $2.32, an increase of 9.0%. ## U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May Remain Low Regarding inventories, the EIA expects U.S. commercial crude oil stocks to **remain below the five-year low seen between 2021 and 2025 through the end of 2026**. The EIA significantly lowered its forecast for U.S. crude oil inventories at the end of 2026 from **433 million barrels to 396 million barrels, a decrease of 8.6%**. The 2027 inventory forecast remains unchanged at 432 million barrels. The EIA noted that since mid-April, increased U.S. crude oil exports, decreased imports, and sustained high refinery utilization rates have driven consecutive weekly declines in U.S. crude oil inventories. Due to strong international demand for U.S. crude, net imports are expected to remain below historical averages through 2027. ## Oil Prices Expected to Fall After Middle Eastern Capacity Recovers in 2027 Although short-term supply risks remain high, the EIA expects oil prices to re-enter a downward trend in 2027. The EIA expects most Middle Eastern crude production to **recover to near pre-conflict average levels by early 2027**. However, some supply disruptions are expected to persist through the end of 2027, amounting to approximately **600,000 barrels per day**. As most capacity recovers, global crude supply will increase and inventories will rebuild, causing Brent crude prices to gradually decline, with the 2027 annual average falling to $69 per barrel. ## U.S. Natural Gas Price Forecast Significantly Lowered In contrast to crude oil, the EIA significantly lowered its U.S. natural gas price forecast. The EIA expects **the average Henry Hub natural gas spot price in the third quarter of 2026 to be $2.87 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), 50 cents lower than the July forecast.** The EIA stated that ongoing maintenance at Freeport LNG has reduced demand for natural gas feedstock at liquefied natural gas export terminals, while robust U.S. natural gas production has pushed prices lower. U.S. natural gas inventories are expected to approach historical highs by October, keeping Henry Hub prices below $3/MMBtu in the coming months. Regarding U.S. LNG exports, **the EIA expects the average export volume in the third quarter of 2026 to be 16.5 billion cubic feet per day, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast.** Meanwhile, the commissioning of Mexico's Energia Costa Azul LNG project and increased demand for natural gas for power generation in the U.S. will drive continued growth in U.S. pipeline exports through 2027. ## Data Center Demand Continues to Drive Up Electricity Consumption The EIA also lowered its forecast for electricity demand in Texas. **As data center construction drives growth in U.S. electricity demand, power generation in the U.S. will continue to increase in 2026.** However, the Governor of Texas announced a suspension of new data center development projects on August 3, leading the EIA to lower its forecast for local electricity demand. The EIA now expects Texas electricity load to grow by 6% in 2027, significantly lower than the previously forecast 14%. In terms of power generation mix, solar energy and new natural gas projects remain the primary sources of growth in U.S. power generation in 2026. In the first half of this year, U.S. solar, hydroelectric, and wind power generation increased by 21%, 9%, and 6%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2025. The EIA expects the continued expansion of renewable energy capacity to sustain this growth trend into 2027; meanwhile, relatively low natural gas prices will drive continued growth in natural gas power generation, while coal-fired power generation will continue to decline due to the lower cost of natural gas. ## U.S. Coal Export Forecast Raised Regarding coal, the significant increase in U.S. coal exports in April and May prompted the EIA to **raise its 2026 U.S. coal export forecast to 102 million short tons**. Metallurgical coal exports continued to grow in the first half of 2026, supported mainly by new mines and restarted operations; thermal coal exports declined in the first quarter but rebounded in the second quarter. The EIA stated that global market changes, such as the switch from natural gas to coal in Europe and Asia, have improved the market environment for U.S. coal exporters. ### Related Stocks - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCO.US.md) - [USOI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USOI.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLE.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VDE.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IXC.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XOP.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEO.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/OIH.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XES.US.md) - [PXJ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PXJ.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [ERX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ERX.US.md) - [ERY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ERY.US.md) - [DUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DUG.US.md) - [MLPA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MLPA.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Oil rises amid supply-disruption concerns](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295158530.md) - [US crude stocks see largest weekly rise in 3.5 years, EIA says](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295682057.md) - [Oil rises as doubts over US-Iran deal heighten supply concerns](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295595527.md) - [Oil extends declines as investors await outcome of US-Iran talks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294907248.md) - [Oil steadies after two-day slump as investors eye Hormuz traffic](https://longbridge.com/en/news/294892991.md)