---
title: "US Inflation Data Fails to Resolve Wall Street Doubts; Bond Market Sees Roughly 50% Chance of September Rate Hike"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295676083.md"
description: "US inflation data came in mild, but the US Treasury market sees about a 50% probability of a rate hike in September. Yields on two-year and 10-year US Treasuries both fell by 3 basis points. Traders lowered the probability of an October rate hike to 60%, with December action fully priced in. Experts believe that although expectations for a September rate hike persist, there is no urgency; the Federal Reserve may focus more on subsequent CPI and employment data, or avoid raising rates amid easing inflation"
datetime: "2026-08-12T13:58:33.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295676083.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295676083.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295676083.md)
---

# US Inflation Data Fails to Resolve Wall Street Doubts; Bond Market Sees Roughly 50% Chance of September Rate Hike

After US inflation data came in mild, traders maintained positions hedging against a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting, with current market pricing indicating roughly a 50% probability of a hike. The Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday met expectations, helping US Treasuries sustain their rally. The yield on the two-year US Treasury note, most sensitive to changes in Fed policy, fell 3 basis points to 4.18%, while the benchmark 10-Year Yield also dropped 3 basis points to 4.65%. Interest rate swaps show that, following the release of economic data, traders reduced the probability of an October rate hike from about 75% the previous day to approximately 60%. The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve’s next move in December.

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