---
title: "Sandisk Sets \"Ultra-High\" Long-Term Targets: Mid-to-High Double-Digit Revenue Growth and 80% Gross Margin for FY2028-30, Stock Surges Nearly 20%"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295844616.md"
description: "Sandisk expects that from fiscal year 2028 to 2030, its non-GAAP gross profit margin will remain at approximately 80%, operating margin at around 75%, and adjusted free cash flow margin at about 50%; it commits to returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders after completing business investments; the long-term target for input bit growth is mid-to-high double digits, but salable bit volume will be flexibly adjusted as needed to optimize profitability; it disclosed that eight major customers have signed long-term agreements, covering approximately two-thirds of bit shipments for fiscal year 2028; the total addressable market (TAM) for enterprise flash memory is expected to reach 1.2ZB by 2030"
datetime: "2026-08-14T00:23:08.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295844616.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295844616.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295844616.md)
---

# Sandisk Sets "Ultra-High" Long-Term Targets: Mid-to-High Double-Digit Revenue Growth and 80% Gross Margin for FY2028-30, Stock Surges Nearly 20%

As AI inference demand continues to drive up storage needs, Sandisk has unveiled highly aggressive long-term financial targets.

On Thursday, the 23rd (US Eastern Time), Sandisk released its long-term financial model at its 2026 Investor Day, proposing a series of financial goals to be achieved from fiscal year 2028 to fiscal year 2030. These include maintaining **mid-to-high double-digit growth** in **revenue** during this period. Sandisk also clarified market concerns regarding bit growth, stating that **salable bit volume will be adjusted based on the need to optimize profitability**, and committed to returning 100% of remaining cash to shareholders after completing business investments.

The market quickly voted with its stock price following the announcement. Sandisk (SNDK) saw its intraday gains expand to **17.6%** on Thursday; the storage sector strengthened in tandem. By the close, Sandisk rose nearly 14%, SK Hynix and Western Digital gained over 7%, Seagate Technology rose nearly 5%, and Micron Technology increased by more than 4%.

## FY2028-30 Targets: 80% Gross Margin, 75% Operating Margin

The most watched aspect of this Investor Day was undoubtedly the long-term financial model presented by Sandisk.

The company expects that during the **2028 to 2030 fiscal years**, revenue will maintain **mid-to-high double-digit growth**, with growth rates matching bit shipment increases; meanwhile, under non-GAAP measures, the **Gross Profit Margin** is expected to remain at approximately **80%**, and the operating margin at around **75%**.

It is important to note the concept of fiscal years here. Sandisk's fiscal year does not align with the calendar year. The company's fiscal year ends on the Friday closest to June 30, typically lasting 52 weeks. Fiscal year 2026, the previous fiscal year, ended on July 3, 2026. **Early July 2026 has already entered fiscal year 2027**, so the announced period of fiscal years 2028 to 2030 does not refer to the calendar years 2028 to 2030, but rather to **a future period spanning three consecutive fiscal years starting around July 2027**.

Under this financial model, Sandisk expects operating expenses to account for approximately **5%** of revenue, with other income and expenses having no significant impact. Even after accounting for taxes, capital expenditures, and working capital required to support business growth, the company still expects the adjusted free cash flow margin to reach approximately **50%**.

For the previously highly cyclical NAND storage industry, these targets are particularly aggressive. Sandisk is effectively sending a clear message to the market: AI-driven storage demand growth is expected to keep the company's revenue growth and profitability in the coming years far above the average levels of traditional storage cycles.

## Not Blindly Pursuing "Bit Volume": Sandisk Will Flexibly Adjust Salable Production Based on Profitability

Another important signal released by Sandisk is that the company does not intend to simply use expanded bit shipments as a growth target, but will **actively adjust salable bit volume based on profitability**.

Previously, the market had focused on Sandisk's bit volume growth guidance for FY2027: the company expected input bit volume growth to reach mid-to-high double digits, while output salable bit volume growth might be lower than this level. At the Investor Day, management further clarified that this does not mean the company lacks the ability to expand output.

According to KC Rajkumar, an analyst at Lynx Equity Strategies, interpreting management's statements, Sandisk CEO David Goeckeler explicitly stated that **the long-term target for input bit volume growth is mid-to-high double digits, but salable bit volume will be flexibly adjusted as needed to optimize profitability**; in certain periods, actual output bit volume growth may even exceed mid-to-high double digits.

This means that Sandisk places greater emphasis on "how much money each bit earns" rather than simply pursuing "how many bits are sold."

Especially during the transition of NAND technology nodes, the company will selectively reduce wafer output to avoid excessively rapid increases in bit density brought by new technologies, which could lead to market oversupply.

Rajkumar pointed out that each NAND technology node transition brings an average bit growth of about **54%** for Sandisk. Therefore, if the company fully releases the new capacity brought by technological upgrades, it could easily recreate a situation of oversupply. By actively reducing wafer output during node transitions, Sandisk can control the amount of bits entering the market, thereby better maintaining prices, profit margins, and capital efficiency.

This approach also explains why Sandisk dares to set a long-term **Gross Profit Margin** target of approximately 80%: the increase in bit density brought by technological progress does not necessarily translate entirely into supply growth; the company can actively "hit the brakes," converting part of the technological dividends into profitability.

## Returning More "Earned Money" to Shareholders: 100% of Excess Cash for Buybacks or Dividends

In addition to revenue and profit margin targets, Sandisk also provided very clear commitments on capital returns.

Sandisk Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Luis Visoso stated that after completing the investments necessary to support business growth, the company expects to return **100% of excess cash to shareholders**.

This means that Sandisk's future capital allocation framework will revolve around three main lines: first, investing in businesses and technologies that support growth; second, maintaining strong free cash flow generation capabilities; and finally, returning remaining cash to shareholders as much as possible.

And an adjusted free cash flow margin of approximately **50%** means that if the long-term financial model is realized, Sandisk's ability to generate cash in the future will be very strong, which is one of the important reasons why the market is willing to give it a higher valuation.

## Eight Major Customers Sign Long-Term Agreements, Covering Approximately Two-Thirds of FY2028 Bit Shipments

One important reason for Sandisk's strong confidence in the aforementioned long-term financial model is that the company is changing the business model of the traditional NAND industry.

The company disclosed that it has already signed New Business Model (NBM) agreements with **8 customers**. These agreements include committed purchase volumes, binding contract frameworks, minimum financial guarantees, and structured pricing mechanisms, which can strengthen the match between customer demand and the company's capacity planning, and reduce the impact of cyclical fluctuations in the traditional storage industry.

More importantly, the scale covered by these agreements is already quite substantial: currently signed NBM agreements cover approximately **50% of FY2027 bit shipments**, and **about two-thirds of FY2028 bit shipments**.

Sandisk believes that this model can bring more predictable revenue, higher cash flow visibility, and more sustainable profit growth.

In other words, Sandisk is not only betting on the growth in storage demand driven by AI, but also attempting to partially transform the strong cyclical nature of the traditional NAND business into more stable and predictable revenue and cash flow through long-term agreements.

## AI Inference Spurs Larger Storage Market, Enterprise Flash TAM Expected to Reach 1.2ZB by 2030

Another major support for Sandisk's high growth expectations over the next three years is the new demand for storage infrastructure as AI expands from training to inference.

The company stated that AI inference workloads are driving rapid growth in token usage, and KV Cache is reshaping the memory hierarchy of data centers. As the scale of AI inference expands, AI data centers will become increasingly reliant on storage. Sandisk expects that by **2030, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for flash memory in enterprise data centers will reach 1.2 zettabytes (ZB)**.

At the technical level, Sandisk is advancing a two-dimensional scaling strategy based on CMOS Direct Bonding Array (CBA) to more flexibly develop customized products that meet different market demands, while improving capital efficiency.

The company's latest BiCS9 QLC technology is the first case of this strategy. This technology combines the BiCS8 array with CMOS wafers based on BiCS10; meanwhile, the new BiCS10 QLC node achieves a **60% increase in bit density** compared to BiCS8.

## HBF Bets on AI Inference, Storage Sector Surges Collectively

Sandisk is also promoting new High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) technology oriented towards AI inference. The company stated that HBF is becoming an important technical solution to meet storage demands in the AI inference era, and the relevant industrial ecosystem is currently taking shape.

In the view of the market, this means that Sandisk's AI storage logic is no longer limited to "AI data centers need more SSDs," but further extends to the demands of the AI inference architecture itself for **higher performance, lower power consumption, and higher storage density**.

This expectation quickly transmitted to the entire storage sector. Sandisk's own rise was more prominent: after announcing its long-term financial targets, its stock price rose nearly 18% intraday. Year-to-date, Sandisk's stock price has accumulated a gain of over 530%.

However, Sandisk simultaneously emphasized that the aforementioned long-term financial targets are forward-looking indicators, built on a series of estimates and assumptions. Actual results may still be affected by factors such as demand, average selling prices, competition, technological iterations, supply chains, and the cycle of the storage industry.

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