--- title: "Are overseas losses peaking? Can DiDi's global ambition deliver?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295903031.md" datetime: "2026-08-14T08:28:37.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295903031.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295903031.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295903031.md) --- # Are overseas losses peaking? Can DiDi's global ambition deliver? Ride-hailing leader $ DiDi.US posted its Q2'26 results on the evening of Aug 13. Overall, the print was solid, with both GTV and adj. profit beating Bloomberg estimates. Domestically, growth was steady with a slight slowdown and margins broadly stable, while overseas continued to accelerate and losses showed signs of peaking.In other words, the overseas segment may be entering a fast lane toward breakeven. Details below: **1) Domestic biz increasingly mature:** This quarter, **domestic GTV reached RMB 90.4 bn, up 9.5% YoY, broadly flat QoQ with a mild deceleration, and slightly above Bloomberg's 8.4%**. By price-volume split, **domestic trips rose 8.1% YoY**, also slowing slightly QoQ, implying the remaining ~1.4% growth came from higher average ticket. Overall, **the domestic business is broadly stable and in the late-maturity phase where growth gradually eases off a higher base**. **2) Domestic net take rate broadly stable:** This quarter, **domestic ride-hailing revenue** (GTV net of taxes and passenger subsidies) **was ~RMB 54.8 bn, up ~8.8% YoY, with QoQ growth up 0.1ppt and a narrower gap vs. GTV growth**.Meanwhile, **domestic platform sales** (GTV net of driver payouts, taxes, etc.) **rose 21.6% YoY**, tracking the GTV trend with a slight slowdown (-0.6ppt), yet still growing much faster than GTV. On a **platform sales/GTV basis, the implied take rate** was 24.3%, **up 2.4ppt YoY with a broadly steady uplift**.This suggests **driver payout ratios have stabilized recently** with no notable decline vs. last quarter. Consumer subsidies likely tightened QoQ. Overall, **the platform's net take rate retention appears broadly stable, which also explains the largely flat QoQ adj.EBITA margin discussed later**. **3) Overseas surging, still buying growth:** This quarter, **overseas GTV** growth continued to accelerate to 61%, **well above Bloomberg's ~55%**. **Ex-FX, growth was 53%, still ~4ppt faster than last quarter**.While the pace of acceleration moderated **(vs. +11ppt last quarter)**, given the rapidly rising base, overseas growth remains very strong. Similarly, **overseas orders rose 29% YoY, accelerating 2ppt QoQ**. Average ticket reached RMB 31.1, up RMB 1.2 QoQ, suggesting **food delivery in markets like Brazil performed well**. As before, due to partner shares and consumer subsidies, **overseas platform sales grew only 18% YoY, up just 1ppt QoQ**, far lagging GTV growth. In short, food delivery is still in a spend-to-scale phase. On a platform sales/GTV basis, the **overseas blended take rate was ~7.5%**, and **has declined for three consecutive quarters**. **4) Profits improved materially, above expectations:** With domestic monetization steady, on an adj.EBITA-to-GMV basis, **margin was 4.6%, roughly flat QoQ**. YoY, margin expanded ~0.2ppt, with profit of RMB 4.17 bn (+15% YoY), ahead of Bloomberg's RMB 3.9 bn. **Overseas loss was RMB 2.89 bn, almost unchanged QoQ**. The segment is still scaling fast, but losses are no longer widening, i.e., **loss margin fell from 7.7% to 6.6%**.This **suggests overseas losses may have peaked, a small beat as well**. Other businesses also narrowed losses, from RMB 910 mn to RMB 740 mn. With better-than-expected profitability across segments, **company-wide adj.EBITA reached RMB 540 mn**.The absolute profit remains small, but versus market expectations and last quarter's loss, the improvement is significant. **5) GP under some pressure, opex growth peaking:** On costs and expenses, overall GPM was 20.2%, **up ~0.5ppt YoY but with a narrower uplift vs. the prior two quarters** (0.9ppt and 0.7ppt), reflecting the impact of overseas investment.Seasonally, Q2 is typically a GPM high, so GPM also rose meaningfully QoQ. **On expenses,** total **four opex lines rose 37% YoY**. That is still high but down from 49% last quarter, **indicating slower growth**. Most notably, **marketing expense growth slowed from 96% YoY to 67%**, with absolute spend up just a little over RMB 300 mn QoQ. This aligns with overseas losses peaking, implying **overseas investment may also be near a peak in absolute terms**. Other expense lines grew around 20% YoY, slightly slower than last quarter. **6) Shareholder returns underwhelming**: Per the company, over the two months from late May to late Jul, **it repurchased nearly $86 mn of stock, plus about $195 mn during the quarter**, equivalent to roughly 4% of current market cap on an annualized basis.Amid a weak share price, shareholder returns are not high. To be fair, **overseas investments require cash outlays, and net operating cash flow has been negative in recent quarters**. **7) Key takeaways from the print** **Dolphin Research view:** In summary, this was a good print in terms of marginal change and vs. expectations. The key positive is that despite losses in overseas and other businesses, the cash-generating domestic core continues to deliver steady profit growth.As overseas scale expands and operating and profit leverage kicks in, the drag on group profits should diminish. **The market narrative may shift from 'overseas burn drives near-zero group profit' to: domestic cash generation remains intact, while overseas, if it does not work, will not overly drag profits, and if it does, provides upside optionality**. Given the ~40% pullback in the stock, **the print likely prompts some recovery**. On valuation, as overseas losses potentially peak, the market may shift from a consolidated profit approach back to SOTP. Domestic trends are stable, so we maintain our prior 2026 adj.EBITA forecast of ~RMB 15.5 bn. Overseas losses are hard to pin down. H1 losses were near RMB 5.8 bn, and assuming a clear H2 narrowing puts full-year at RMB 9.0 bn, with other new businesses likely losing at least RMB 2.0 bn. **On a consolidated basis, even after the large pullback, valuation support remains limited**. For 2026 domestic adj.EBITA of ~RMB 15.5 bn, less ~RMB 2.5 bn of SBC (with non-op income far exceeding taxes, we do not further deduct tax), the current market cap of ~RMB 120 bn implies **~9x**. Unlike e-commerce, where competitive incentives anchor multiples at 8–10x, Didi's core moat and visibility are strong, so **if overseas losses narrow meaningfully, domestic could re-rate toward 12x–15x**. **Past Dolphin Research coverage on \[Didi Global\]:** **Earnings reviews** Nov 28, 2025: [**Food-delivery war spared Didi, so why did it buckle?**](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/36752908) Aug 28, 2025: [**No food-delivery boost, yet Didi held up?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33437048) Jun 5, 2025: **The 'food-delivery war' did not hit, Didi quietly minted cash** Mar 19, 2025: [**Didi: domestically mature yet vigilant, overseas story told gradually?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/28206398) Nov 29, 2024: [**Didi: domestically in 'lie-flat' mode, overseas not fast enough**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/25828632) Aug 23, 2024: [**Squeezing margins, can Didi find a late bloom?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/23363295) **Deep dives** Jul 1, 2021: [RMB 70 bn Didi: worth it or not?](https://longbridgeapp.com/news/39199939) Jun 24, 2021: [Unpacking Didi's mobility 'utopia' | Dolphin Research](https://longbridgeapp.com/news/38718179) Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [DIDIY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIDIY.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Chinese Ride-Hailer Didi’s International Orders Average 15 Million a Day in Second Quarter](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295904100.md) - [Yonyou teams up with Didi Enterprise to roll out corporate travel service for large events](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295883283.md) - [Didi’s core business remains strong as global expansion pressures earnings](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279232428.md) - [Michelangelo Volpi Sells 1,441,849 Shares of Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR) Stock](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295922898.md) - [Tesla faces uphill battle against Beijing’s new standards for self-driving cars](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295491720.md)