--- title: "Overseas Debut: Is DiDi’s Moment Finally Here?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/295903031.md" datetime: "2026-08-14T08:28:37.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/295903031.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295903031.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/295903031.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Overseas Debut: Is DiDi’s Moment Finally Here? Ride-hailing leader $DiDi.US posted its Q2 FY26 results on Aug 13 after market. Overall, the print was solid, with both GTV and adj. profit beating Bloomberg consensus. Trend-wise, China biz growth was steady but slightly slower, with margins broadly stable. **The standout was Intl, where growth continued to accelerate while absolute losses peaked; in limited mgmt interactions, the company also shared a cadence for Intl profitability.** **In short, after trading around floor levels, a re-rating finally looks due.** **1) China is fully mature:** This quarter, **China GTV was RMB 90.4bn (+9.5% YoY), broadly steady vs. Q1 with modestly slower growth, and slightly above Bloomberg’s 8.4%.** By price vs. volume, **China order volume rose 8.1% YoY,** likewise decelerating QoQ. This implies the remaining ~1.4% growth was driven by higher Avg. ticket. Overall, **China remains stable, entering a ‘late-maturity’ phase where growth slows gradually at a low base as comps rise.** **2) China net take-rate broadly stable:** This quarter, **China mobility revenue** (GTV ex. taxes and rider subsidies) **was ~RMB 54.8bn (+8.8% YoY), with QoQ growth up 0.1ppt, narrowing the gap vs. GTV growth.** **Platform sales in China** (GTV ex. driver payout and taxes) **grew 21.6% YoY,** following the same trend as GTV with a slight decel (-0.6ppt), yet still notably outpacing GTV in absolute growth. On **platform sales/GTV, the take-rate** reached 24.3%, **up 2.4ppt YoY with the pace broadly stable.** That suggests **the Avg. driver payout has broadly stabilized recently,** without a notable drop vs. Q1. Consumer subsidies likely tightened QoQ. All in, **the net take-rate retained by the platform should be broadly stable, which also underpins the largely steady adj. EBITA margin QoQ discussed below.** **3) Intl keeps surging, scale first over profits:** This quarter, **Intl GTV** growth kept accelerating to 61%, **clearly above Bloomberg’s ~55%.** **Ex-FX tailwinds, growth was 53%, still ~4ppt faster than Q1.** While the acceleration narrowed **(vs. 11ppt in Q1),** given the rapidly rising base, Intl growth remains strong. Similarly, **Intl orders rose 29% YoY, accelerating 2ppt QoQ.** Avg. ticket was RMB 31.1, up RMB 1.2 QoQ. Combined, these indicate Didi’s **food delivery in markets like Brazil performed well this quarter.** Yet, as before, with partner sharing and consumer subsidies, **Intl platform sales** grew only 18% YoY, **up ~1ppt vs. Q1,** still well below GTV growth. In other words, delivery remains in a ‘spend for scale’ phase. On platform sales/GTV, the **blended Intl take-rate was ~7.5%,** and it has **declined for three consecutive quarters.** **4) Profits improved materially, beating estimates:** With China take-rate steady this quarter, on adj. EBITA/GMV, **margin was 4.6%, roughly flat QoQ.** YoY, margin expanded ~0.2ppt, with profit at RMB 4.17bn (+15% YoY), also above Bloomberg’s RMB 3.9bn. **Intl loss was RMB 2.89bn, nearly unchanged vs. Q1.** While the business is scaling rapidly, losses no longer widen; **loss ratio fell from 7.7% to 6.6%.** This likely **signals the peak loss is behind us, a modest beat.** Other segments’ loss also narrowed, from RMB 910mn to RMB 740mn. With all segments printing better-than-expected profits, **group adj. EBITA reached RMB 540mn this quarter.** The absolute profit is still small, but versus consensus and last quarter’s loss, the improvement is substantial. **5) GP under some pressure; opex growth peaking:** From costs and opex, Didi’s **overall GPM was 20.2%,** **up ~50bps YoY, but the uplift vs. the prior two quarters** (90bps and 70bps) was narrowing, reflecting the impact of Intl investment. Seasonality (Q2 tends to be a GPM high), also drove a solid QoQ uplift this quarter. **On opex,** total **four operating expense lines grew 37% YoY,** still high but down from 49% last quarter, **indicating slower growth.** The key was marketing YoY growth easing from 96% to 67%, with the absolute QoQ increase just a touch above RMB 300mn. Dolphin Research believes this aligns with Intl losses peaking, i.e., **Intl spend in absolute terms is also near peak.** Other opex lines’ YoY growth stayed around ~20%, slightly slower vs. Q1. **6) Shareholder returns underwhelming:** Per company disclosure, from late May to late Jul, **Didi repurchased ~$86mn of shares, plus ~$195mn in Q2 buybacks,** which annualizes to ~4% of current mkt cap. **Given recent share-price weakness, returns to shareholders are not high.** That said, **Intl investment requires capital, and net cash inflow has been negative in recent quarters.** **7) Key confidence items from the print** **Dolphin Research View** In summary, Didi’s quarter looks good on margin deltas vs. expectations. The main highlight is that while Intl and other segments still lose money, the cash-generating China core kept profit growth resilient. As Intl scale expands, operating and profit leverage should release more visibly, reducing the drag on group earnings. **We expect market logic to shift from ‘Intl burns China profits’ and depressed valuation to a SOTP framework:** **a) China’s cash-generation holds profit steady in a mature phase;** **b) Even if Intl underdelivers, it shouldn’t overly drag profits; if it meets guidance, it warrants incremental valuation.** After a ~40% drawdown and trading around floor levels, **post-earnings the stock likely enters a sustained repair phase.** On valuation, with Intl losses likely peaking, the market should shift from consolidated profit-based valuation back to SOTP. Specifically, a) China remains broadly stable, so we maintain our prior 2026 adj. EBITA forecast of ~RMB 15.5bn. Assuming RMB 15.5bn adj. EBITA for 2026 China, net of ~RMB 2.5bn SBC (non-op income well exceeds tax, so no extra tax deduction). On multiples, unlike e-commerce, where competition anchors the center at 8–10x, Didi’s moat and visibility are stronger; **a 12x multiple on the China core implies ~RMB 150–160bn.** b) Intl losses in 2026 stay flat in absolute terms, with loss ratio narrowing as revenue scales; Intl mobility and financial target $100mn profit in 2027 and $300mn in 2028. Unprofitable today can be valued at zero; but if Intl turns profitable as guided, using >20x PE on $300mn for 2028 and discounting back 15% to 2026, that implies ~RMB 30bn. In other words, as Intl starts to harvest, Didi’s valuation could revert toward RMB 150–200bn (approx. $12.2–29.0bn), leaving meaningful upside with reasonable visibility. \ **Dolphin Research’s prior takes on \[滴滴出行\]:** **Earnings reviews** Jun 2, 2026: [**China fully mature, Intl spending aggressively — is Didi’s future ‘Intl Didi’?**](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/41396395) Mar 13, 2026: [**Food-delivery war hits Brazil, and Didi feels the pain**](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/39252836) Nov 28, 2025: [**Not hit by delivery wars — why did Didi still stumble?**](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/36752908) Aug 28, 2025: [**No delivery attachment, and Didi still looked fine?**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/33437048) Jun 5, 2025: **Delivery war didn’t spread — Didi made serious money quietly** Mar 19, 2025: [**Didi: China fully mature yet needs guarding; Intl story to be told slowly?**](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/28206398) Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [DIDIY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIDIY.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Chinese Ride-Hailer Didi’s International Orders Average 15 Million a Day in Second Quarter](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295904100.md) - [Yonyou teams up with Didi Enterprise to roll out corporate travel service for large events](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295883283.md) - [KE: Net income doubled year-over-year as margins improved and share repurchases accelerated](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296601955.md) - [KE Holdings Boosts Profit Despite Property Market Slowdown in H1 2026](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296607593.md) - [Negative Link Announces Global Expansion and Next Phase of Growth](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296644416.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**