Micron Upgraded to Buy on the Claim Memory Stopped Being Cyclical

Micron Technology rose 2.08% intraday after New Street Research upgraded the stock to Buy with a $1,250 price target, arguing the current run "breaks from the industry cycles we have witnessed in recent decades." The firm's evidence is the gap between price and production: Micron is up more than tenfold from its April 2025 lows while cost of goods sold has risen roughly 25%.

The numbers behind the call are large. By 2030 New Street models more than $600 billion of cash on Micron's balance sheet and over $150 billion in annual free cash flow, which it treats as peak figures. Then, across a four-year downturn beyond 2030, the firm sees a trough of just $18 billion in free cash flow burn and more than $100 billion generated annually, which New Street describes as a milder downcycle than past eras.

Demand does the work. New Street models 15% annual growth beyond 2030 against a 10% average over the past twenty years, with AI accounting for two-thirds of the mix. Memory has traded at roughly 3x to 6x COGS through the cycle, but the firm argues high-bandwidth memory earns a premium because it's structurally less cyclical than commodity DRAM. That combination implies a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market capitalization by 2030.