--- title: "This week's trading notes: Fed meeting minutes, preliminary PMI data from various countries, Japan's GDP and inflation data" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296025954.md" description: "This week's market focus is on the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, preliminary PMI data from various countries, and Japan's GDP and inflation figures. The Fed minutes will reveal clues about a potential rate hike in September, with market expectations for rate cuts rising due to weak employment. Additionally, the European Central Bank's minutes, retail sales data from Europe and the U.S., and the situation in the Middle East are also key points of interest, as investors assess consumer confidence and the direction of monetary policy" datetime: "2026-08-16T13:50:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296025954.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296025954.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296025954.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # This week's trading notes: Fed meeting minutes, preliminary PMI data from various countries, Japan's GDP and inflation data In the coming week, market attention will focus on the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures from various countries, and earnings reports from retail giants. The market will carefully analyze Fed signals and the performance of retail bellwethers like Walmart to assess consumer confidence and the direction of monetary policy. Meanwhile, investors will continue to monitor oil prices and developments in the Middle East, hoping for an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, the latest statement from Washington indicated that it would continue to increase economic pressure on Iran. ![cover image of news article](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577872/l/965098fdc85b9c3999e993bb5832e08e.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) This week's trading notes: Fed meeting minutes, preliminary PMI figures from various countries, GDP and inflation data from Japan (Image: Shutterstock) The European Central Bank will also release its meeting minutes, along with inflation and retail sales data from the Eurozone, the UK, and Canada, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will also be released. Additionally, the market will focus on Japan's preliminary GDP for the second quarter and national inflation data, as well as China's industrial production, retail sales, and housing price data. **This week's trading notes (0817-0821)** **1\. Fed Meeting Minutes** The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July will be released on Wednesday (19th), which may contain clues about a potential rate hike in September. The U.S. non-farm payroll data performed weaker than expected, and inflation slightly decreased, leading the market to lower its expectations for a Fed rate hike. According to LSEG data, the U.S. money market currently sees only a 27% chance of a 25 basis point hike next month, with rate hike expectations not fully reflecting market sentiment until early next year. Nevertheless, last month the FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% with a vote of 9 to 3, with three members dissenting. Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a recent research report: "The FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be closely watched to understand the level of internal division within the Fed. Recent weak U.S. employment and producer price data, along with relatively moderate consumer price index (CPI) inflation, reinforce the view that patience can be maintained and rates can be held steady for now. However, the inflation situation is not entirely optimistic. The CPI is moving in the right direction but remains above target levels, and long-term bond yields are also high **2\. PMI Initial Values of Various Countries** The manufacturing and services PMI initial values of major economies, including the United States, Eurozone, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, will provide the latest information on regional economic activity and price pressures. Investec analyst Lottie Gosling wrote in a recent research report: "Due to the ongoing stalemate between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil and gas prices higher again, the Eurozone PMI is expected to decline." Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August will be released on Tuesday (18th), having reached a five-month high last month. The following day, the Eurozone's June balance of payments data and July CPI data will also be released. Inflation, labor market, retail sales, and PMI initial values in the UK will be published on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday (21st), respectively. **3\. China's Economic Data and Interest Rate Decision** China will release a series of July economic data on Monday (17th), including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and housing prices, which will reflect the state of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the third quarter. Economists expect most indicators to show weakness, which will enhance market expectations for more policy support. Additionally, the People's Bank of China will announce the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decision on Thursday (20th), with the one-year and five-year LPR expected to remain unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that the industrial production data will reflect a slowdown in export growth, weak manufacturing activity, and a more significant contraction in steel production and demand. Although the boost from the "old-for-new" policy is waning, retail sales data is expected to rise due to a low base effect. HSBC economists believe that the Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) data will show that real estate remains a major drag, and manufacturing investment may continue to exhibit a K-shaped recovery. **4\. Japan's GDP and Inflation Data** The market generally expects that Japan's second-quarter GDP initial value, to be released on Monday, will grow by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, remaining flat, with private consumption expected to maintain its position as the main engine of economic growth. Furthermore, the CPI and core CPI released on Friday are expected to rise moderately to an annual increase of 2% and 1.8%, respectively, with the overall inflation rate expected to accelerate, returning to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% target for the first time in several months, primarily driven by ongoing pressure from rising import prices. The BOJ is expected to purchase bonds of various maturities on Wednesday, including 1-3 year, 5-10 year, and bonds over 25 years. Barclays strategists stated that the overnight index swap market "has fully priced in expectations for further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, with a final rate of 1.75% and expectations for further rate hikes before October having been completely absorbed." ### Related Stocks - [WMT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WMT.US.md) - [INVP.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INVP.UK.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [HSBA.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBA.UK.md) - [00005.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00005.HK.md) - [HSBC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [BARC.UK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BARC.UK.md) - [BCS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BCS.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [DTIW.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DTIW.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Eurozone PMI rises to nine-month high as factory activity accelerates](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296586744.md) - [U.S. interest payments hit historic high as share of GDP](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296363419.md) - [German business activity grows in August, PMI shows](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296585416.md) - [Calendly throws its hat into meeting note-taker circus](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296368861.md) - [Japan Composite PMI Rises to 6-Month Peak](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296550196.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**