--- title: "Where Will SpaceX Stock Be in One Year? Morgan Stanley Weighs In" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296032718.md" description: "Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas rates SpaceX (SPCX) as a 'Buy' with a $300 price target, citing AI potential and Starship developments. Despite recent lock-up expirations causing minor volatility, Jonas views the supply overhang as an opportunity. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is also bullish, with an average target of $228.59, implying significant upside for the stock over the next 12 months." datetime: "2026-08-16T22:16:19.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296032718.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296032718.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296032718.md) --- # Where Will SpaceX Stock Be in One Year? Morgan Stanley Weighs In **SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)** stock has cooled after its blistering August run, slipping about 4% over the past two trading sessions. Yet, that pullback has done little to erase the gains, with shares still up about 29% this month. Much of the rally reflects fading concerns surrounding the first post-IPO lockup expiration. ### Claim 55% Off TipRanks High conviction SPCX bulls now have this Tradr ETF More than 911 million shares became eligible for sale on August 6, raising concerns that early holders could use the opportunity to cash out. The feared wave of selling never arrived on the scale some expected, helping SPCX recover above its $135 IPO price. Another potential test arrives when the next lockup restriction expires on August 20, when roughly 319 million additional shares become eligible for sale. That prospect could create volatility following SPCX's strong monthly performance, particularly if early holders decide to monetize part of their positions. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, however, sees the approaching event quite differently from those worried about additional supply. "We think the lock-up expiry overhang is an opportunity rather than a risk," Jonas wrote, describing SpaceX as a "generational compounder." The analyst's view rests on the idea that temporary weakness could offer an appealing entry point into a company whose long-term potential reaches far beyond rockets, satellites, and connectivity. AI occupies an important place within that outlook, especially as SpaceX develops proprietary models alongside extensive computing infrastructure. "Most investors still view SpaceXAI as a modestly successful neocloud," Jonas wrote, arguing that little credit currently reflects the potential value created when those resources support internally developed products. Jonas' valuation work illustrates why that distinction matters for SPCX. The analyst assigns $127 per share to space and connectivity operations, leaving relatively little of today's market value attributable to consumer plus enterprise AI. Further gains from Grok could alter that equation, particularly if upcoming releases demonstrate sustained competitiveness among leading models. Jonas does not believe Elon Musk's most aggressive computing targets must become reality for a meaningful revaluation to occur. What matters more is whether proprietary technology can remain competitive while retaining users as newer versions arrive. The analyst believes SpaceX must "maintain stickiness on the AI model frontier," with Grok 4.7 and version 5 offering further opportunities to support that thesis before year-end. Starship provides another possible catalyst during the coming weeks, giving investors something beyond AI to watch. Jonas expects Flight 14 sometime in early September, although remaining vehicle tests must be completed before FAA authorization permits the planned ship catch. Successful execution would offer further evidence that development remains on course while newer ventures continue maturing. So, where could SpaceX stock stand one year from now, according to Morgan Stanley? Jonas assigns SPCX a Buy rating alongside a 12-month price target of $300, representing about 114% upside from current levels. (To watch Jonas' track record, click here) The rest of Wall Street is leaning in the same direction, though few are as bullish as Jonas. SPCX holds a Moderate Buy consensus based on 32 analyst ratings, with 24 Buys, 6 Holds, and 2 Sells. The average price target of $228.59 implies about 63% upside for the next 12 months. 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