--- title: "Economists Pull the Plug on a 2026 Fed Rate Hike, Reuters Poll Shows" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296126430.md" description: "A Reuters poll of 104 economists indicates that a majority expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady through year-end. Specifically, 90% anticipate no change at the September FOMC meeting, and 77% believe rates will remain between 3.50% and 3.75%. This outlook persists despite ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and inflation risks from restricted oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. While the CME FedWatch tool suggests a 25-bp hike remains possible, economist consensus favors stability." datetime: "2026-08-17T15:05:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296126430.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296126430.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296126430.md) --- # Economists Pull the Plug on a 2026 Fed Rate Hike, Reuters Poll Shows A _Reuters_ poll surveying 104 economists between August 12 and 17 showed that a majority expect the Fed to hold rates next month and through year-end. ### Summer Sale - Claim 70% Off TipRanks - Unlock powerful investing tools with TipRanks Premium to make smarter, more confident investment decisions - Subscribe to TipRanks Smart Investor Newsletter, and discover new investing opportunities with data-backed stock picks 94 economists, or 90%, expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Furthermore, 80 economists, or 77%, believe that the Fed will hold rates between 3.50% and 3.75% for the rest of the year. ## **Inflation Risks Keep Rate Hike on the Table** The poll results come despite the U.S.-Iran war showing no signs of progress toward a peace agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the passageway has remained limited since the war began on February 28, restricting the flow of oil and propping up inflation. Furthermore, the most likely outcome with 44.4% odds is for one 25-bp rate hike by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At the last FOMC meeting, three officials dissented in favor of a hike, signaling that the possibility of higher rates is still on the table. ### Related Stocks - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [SPDN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPDN.US.md) - [SPUU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPUU.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SPYU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYU.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [SPYQ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYQ.US.md) - [SPYB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYB.US.md) - [SPYM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYM.US.md) - [JDST.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JDST.US.md) - [JNUG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JNUG.US.md) - [BITI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITI.US.md) - [YBIT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/YBIT.US.md) - [SBIT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SBIT.US.md) - [BTFX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTFX.US.md) - [BTCZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCZ.US.md) - [BTCL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCL.US.md) - [BITX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITX.US.md) - [BITU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITU.US.md) - [FAS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FAS.US.md) - [FAZ.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FAZ.US.md) - [SEF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SEF.US.md) - [SKF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKF.US.md) - [UYG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UYG.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [LIVE MARKETS-BofA clients flock to tech stocks](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296383193.md) - [US SEC Panel Passes 'Crypto Asset Regulation' Proposal as Bitcoin Rallies Toward $65,000](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296350781.md) - [BofA Survey Shows Record Expectations for ‘No Landing’ as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Preps for Jackson Hole Debut](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296270948.md) - [Kalshi files for S&P 500 perpetual futures in challenge to traditional exchanges](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296226910.md) - [Stocks See Support as Weak US Economic Reports Curb Fed Rate-Hike Expectations](https://longbridge.com/en/news/295946665.md)