--- title: "Home Depot Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Will CEO Ted Decker Talk About Tariffs?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296138453.md" description: "Home Depot reports Q2 earnings Tuesday, with analysts expecting $4.73 EPS and ~$47.2B revenue. Investors focus on tariff impacts, Mexico operations, and housing demand recovery. Prediction markets indicate high likelihood of executives discussing 'Mexico,' 'Tariffs,' and 'Innovation.' Key metrics include comparable sales growth and big-ticket project deferrals. CEO Ted Decker is on medical leave. RBC raised its price target to $343, citing priced-in housing recovery expectations." datetime: "2026-08-17T18:28:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296138453.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296138453.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296138453.md) --- # Home Depot Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Will CEO Ted Decker Talk About Tariffs? **Home Depot Inc.** (NYSE:HD) reports second-quarter earnings before the bell Tuesday, with investors looking for signs that the home improvement downturn is finally bottoming. Analysts expect earnings of about $4.73 per share, up roughly 1% from a year ago, on revenue near $47.2 billion, according to Benzinga Pro. Polymarket gives a 77% chance that the company beats earnings, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words executives will and won’t say. The expectations in the stock may be higher than the earnings bar: RBC warned Monday that shares already appear to price in a fairly rapid housing recovery, lifting its target to $343, just above Friday’s $338.86 close. ## What Kalshi Predicts Home Depot Will Say “Mexico” and “Tariff” top the board at 89%. Home Depot has run stores in Mexico for more than two decades, and said last quarter that tariffs, fuel and commodity costs were putting more pressure on the business. “Innovation” trades at 84%. In January, Home Depot expanded its Google Cloud partnership and upgraded its “Magic Apron” assistant using Gemini models from **Alphabet** (NASDAQ:GOOGL). In April, it said an AI voice agent would replace traditional phone menus for calls to its U.S. stores. “Weather” and “Storm” trade at 84% and 75%. Home Depot blamed a lack of storms for much of last year’s third-quarter shortfall. In May, it said its expectation for stronger second-half comps was “solely driven by a return to normal storm activity.” “Lumber,” a fixture of home improvement calls since the pandemic price spikes, trades at 62%. At the bottom of the favored list, “Inflation” trades at 58% and “Headwind” at 50%. Traders are split on whether the cautious vocabulary of the last two years survives another call. ## What Kalshi Predicts Home Depot Will Skip “Tailwind” trades at 39%, leaving traders more likely to hear “headwind” than its optimistic counterpart. “Volatility” sits at 34%. “Competition” sits at 32%, suggesting the market share fight with **Lowe’s Companies (NYSE:LOW)** goes largely unmentioned. “E-Commerce” trades at just 15% despite years of digital investment, and “Shutdown” is priced at 3%. ## Reading the Board Options price a post-earnings move of about 4.3%, versus the stock’s 3.0% average over the last four reports. The real test may be big-ticket demand. Management said last quarter that customers were still deferring large discretionary projects, while full-year guidance calls for comparable sales growth of flat to 2%. That makes comparable sales the number to watch. A stronger-than-expected comp print, paired with signs that customers are returning to bigger projects, may matter more than an earnings beat. Flat comps and more deferral language would leave investors waiting even longer for a housing recovery. Investors will also listen for any update on CEO **Ted Decker**, who is on temporary medical leave and expected to return within the next few months. _Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement._ _Image: Shutterstock_ **Read Also: Nvidia-OpenAI Deal Isn't 'Circular Financing,' Says Jensen Huang, Sees $600B Compute Opportunity** ### Related Stocks - [HD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HD.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [LOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/LOW.US.md) - [RY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RY.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Home Depot CEO Takes Medical Leave. 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