--- title: "马斯克或推动 SpaceX(SPCX.US) 与特斯拉 (TSLA.US) 合并？预测市场押注 2028 年前落地概率飙至 71%" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296191113.md" description: "近期市场传闻特斯拉与 SpaceX 可能合并，预测平台数据显示 2028 年前落地概率升至 71%。马斯克在财报会上未否认该可能性，称需经适当程序。摩根大通认为 SpaceX IPO 是主要催化剂，双方协同效应日益显著。" datetime: "2026-08-18T07:37:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296191113.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296191113.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296191113.md) --- # 马斯克或推动 SpaceX(SPCX.US) 与特斯拉 (TSLA.US) 合并？预测市场押注 2028 年前落地概率飙至 71% According to Zhitong Finance APP, recently, speculation about the merger of Elon Musk's two core companies—Tesla (TSLA.US) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) (SPCX.US)—has been intensifying, with a significant influx of betting funds in the market. Data from the prediction platform Polymarket on the Polygon chain shows that the market currently estimates a 55% probability that the two companies will officially merge by December 31, 2027. However, expectations for a merger to be completed by the end of 2026 have significantly cooled, with the probability dropping from a peak of 57% in May to 20% at the time of writing. Another prediction market, Kalshi, stated on the X platform that the probability of a merger occurring before 2028 is 65%. As of the time of writing, this figure has further risen to 71%. ## The "Century Merger" Anticipated by the Market Rumors surrounding the potential integration of Musk's two most influential companies have recently intensified on Wall Street. During Tesla's second-quarter earnings call last month, Musk did not directly deny the possibility of a merger when asked. The world's richest man merely stated that collaboration between the two companies is deepening, but the earnings call is not the appropriate venue to discuss this matter, adding that "proper procedures must be followed." In July, JP Morgan pointed out that discussions have become more pragmatic and believes that SpaceX's record IPO will be one of the biggest catalysts for advancing the Tesla-SpaceX merger process. Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US), also stated earlier this year that there are significant synergies among Musk's companies, which "will inevitably lead to collaboration at various levels." Musk is not new to promoting mergers and reorganizations among his companies. Earlier this year, SpaceX acquired the artificial intelligence startup xAI through an all-stock transaction; in 2025, he will integrate the social media platform X into the xAI system. On Monday during regular trading hours, SpaceX's stock price rose 4.45% to $146.23, but fell 1.4% in after-hours trading. 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