--- title: "'Avoid Tesla Stock,' Warns Analyst. Here's Why He Predicts 92% Downside" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296240163.md" description: "GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a Sell rating on Tesla (TSLA) with a $24.86 price target, implying a 92% downside. He cited poor Q2 financials, including negative free cash flow and low operating margins. Johnson argues that Tesla's high valuation relies heavily on unproven Robotaxi and FSD plans, pointing to frequent disengagements and NHTSA collision data as evidence of readiness issues. This contrasts with the market consensus Hold rating." datetime: "2026-08-18T13:48:30.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296240163.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296240163.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296240163.md) --- # 'Avoid Tesla Stock,' Warns Analyst. Here's Why He Predicts 92% Downside Tesla (TSLA) stock is facing another warning from GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson. He reiterated a Sell rating and $24.86 price target, arguing that Tesla's valuation depends too heavily on its Robotaxi and FSD plans. The price target implies about 92% downside from current levels. ### Summer Sale - Claim 70% Off TipRanks TSLQ: built for a short position on TSLA The call comes after Tesla's second-quarter results. Johnson said, "The second quarter was ugly," and pointed to a 1.4% operating margin, negative $1.1 billion in free cash flow, and a 20.4% energy gross margin. Tesla is also down 24.55% this year, compared with a 13.14% gain for the S&P 500 (SPX). However, Johnson's bigger concern is what investors are paying for Tesla's future. ## **Johnson Sees Trouble With Tesla's Robotaxi Plans** Johnson argues that Tesla's Robotaxi story is not yet supported by the company's FSD performance. He cited tracked data showing FSD v14 on HW4 disengaging about every 40 miles. His data covers 865 vehicles, with 18 active in the past week. He also pointed to 22 collisions reported in NHTSA filings over the past 12 months. Johnson says those figures raise questions about whether Tesla's autonomous driving technology is ready for the valuation investors have placed on it. That concern also applies to the Cybercab. Johnson expects Tesla's planned Austin event to generate attention, but he does not view it as proof that the product is ready for widespread use. ## **Johnson Questions Tesla's Future Valuation** Johnson also questioned the valuations Tesla has assigned to its future businesses. He cited management estimates of about $20 trillion for Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot business, and roughly $5 trillion for autonomy and other businesses. At the same time, he pointed to reports suggesting Tesla could become part of SpaceX within a year, at a valuation of $1.3 trillion to $1.6 trillion. Johnson argues those figures are difficult to reconcile. He expects FSD to remain a major source of pressure on Tesla stock in the second half of 2026. His price target of $24.86 puts the shares far below current levels. ## **Is Tesla a Buy, Hold, or Sell?** On TipRanks, TSLA has a Hold consensus rating based on 10 Buys, 15 Holds, and three Sell ratings. 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