--- title: "Tesla Investor Says 'Low Interest in TSLA at Its Current Price' Despite SpaceX Merger Odds" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296245347.md" description: "Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, anticipates a high probability of a SpaceX-Tesla merger this year but maintains low interest in TSLA stock due to valuation concerns. He estimates Tesla trades at roughly 195-200x earnings, arguing that despite potential synergies and a ~20% premium offer, existing shareholders face significant dilution and risk of value loss before deal closure. Consequently, Black remains cautious on Tesla's current price." datetime: "2026-08-18T14:39:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296245347.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296245347.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296245347.md) --- # Tesla Investor Says 'Low Interest in TSLA at Its Current Price' Despite SpaceX Merger Odds Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, believes there is a high chance of a SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) merger this year, but he remains cautious on TSLA stock at its current valuation. Black expects SpaceX could make an all-stock offer for Tesla at a roughly 20% premium, citing synergies between the two companies and Elon Musk's leadership of both. ### Summer Sale - Claim 70% Off TipRanks SPCX has a long & short ETF? Explore SPCM & SPCG While Tesla is a leader in electric vehicles, robotics, and solar panels, SpaceX has a broader portfolio of businesses spanning space exploration, satellite communications, and AI. Following its IPO, SpaceX's valuation has increased sharply, making it significantly more valuable than Tesla. SpaceX currently has a market capitalization of about $1.90 trillion, compared with Tesla's $1.35 trillion. Given the valuation gap, Black believes SpaceX could seek to acquire Tesla. ## **Why Black Expects a Mergers** Black believes a Tesla-SpaceX combination could make Musk's role easier while creating strategic synergies between the two companies. However, he expects many existing Tesla shareholders to sell as soon as a deal is announced rather than wait six to 12 months for the merger to close. According to Black, Tesla shareholders could face roughly 50% dilution in an all-stock deal. He believes the SpaceX shares they receive could lose value before the merger closes, reducing the value of the deal for Tesla investors. Black also noted that Tesla has underperformed the Nasdaq-100 despite what he considers high odds of a potential buyout. ## **Why Black Is Cautious on Tesla** Despite expecting a potential takeover, Black said he has "low interest" in Tesla at its current price, primarily due to valuation concerns. He estimates Tesla is trading at roughly 195x 2026 earnings while expecting long-term EPS growth of around 35%. In another post, he cited a valuation of about 200x earnings and long-term growth of 25%. Black argues that even with strong expected growth, Tesla's current valuation makes it difficult for investors buying TSLA stock today to generate attractive returns. Black believes investors should distinguish between their enthusiasm for Tesla's products and the valuation of its shares. For Tesla investors, a potential SpaceX merger could provide a significant catalyst, but his view highlights an important risk: a deal announcement does not necessarily mean existing shareholders will benefit immediately. The premium, potential dilution, and changes in SpaceX's stock price could all affect the ultimate value Tesla shareholders receive. ## **Is Tesla a Buy, Hold, or Sell?** On TipRanks, TSLA has a Hold consensus rating based on 10 Buys, 15 Holds, and three Sell ratings. The average Tesla price target of $377.43 implies 11.2% upside potential from current levels. 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