--- title: "On the Eve of Midterms! US Diesel Prices Surge, Approaching All-Time High" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296281237.md" description: "Over the past month, diesel prices have cumulatively risen by 8%, while the spread between diesel and crude oil recently hit an ATH (All-Time High). The trigger was the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz due to US-Iran military conflicts, compounded by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, which tightened global supply. This surge is severely impacting US agriculture and logistics, triggering new inflationary pressures and posing a severe political test for the Trump administration, potentially forcing the White House to adopt radical policies in response" datetime: "2026-08-19T00:15:08.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296281237.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296281237.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296281237.md) --- # On the Eve of Midterms! US Diesel Prices Surge, Approaching All-Time High On the eve of the midterm elections, US diesel prices are rising sharply, dealing a heavy blow to the industrial economy and ordinary consumers, and triggering a new round of inflationary pressures, placing the Trump administration under increasingly severe political scrutiny. On Tuesday, the retail price of diesel in the US rose to $5.47 per gallon, approaching the historical peak of $5.82. Over the past month, diesel prices have cumulatively increased by 8%, while **the spread between diesel and crude oil—known as the "crack spread"—recently hit an ATH (All-Time High)**, indicating that the supply shock is continuing to deepen. According to a report by the UK's Financial Times on August 18, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers stated that Trump and his energy team have taken "decisive action" to alleviate disruptions in the energy market and are committed to promoting US energy dominance and reducing costs. The direct trigger for this surge in diesel prices was US military actions against Iran, which led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries that tightened global supply. **US refining capacity is now near its limit.** Analysts warn that **rising prices are being transmitted to the broader economy through trucking and agricultural costs, driving sell-offs in US Treasury bonds and pushing yields to multi-year highs, further increasing borrowing costs for ordinary citizens.** ## Prices Approach Historical Highs, Crack Spread Hits Record On Tuesday, the retail price of diesel in the US reached $5.47 per gallon, just a step away from the historical high of $5.82. Meanwhile, the premium of diesel over US crude oil was approximately $100 per barrel, more than three times the average spread in 2025. The crack spread has more than doubled since February 28 this year, when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, and has risen by over 20% this month alone—accelerating especially after negotiations between Tehran and Washington stalled. Tom Kloza, Chief Energy Advisor at Gulf Oil, characterized the current situation as "**a quiet crisis**." "These are heavy blows to the economic belly, and I believe they will have quite significant impacts," he said. ## Dual Geopolitical Conflicts Severely Impact Global Diesel Supply This supply shock stems from two overlapping geopolitical fault lines. > - First, the US-Iran war led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with both Iran and the US imposing restrictions on tanker traffic through the strait. Meanwhile, energy infrastructure in the Middle East was bombed, significantly damaging regional refining capacity. > > - Second, Ukraine continues to carry out drone attacks on Russian refineries, compressing output in one of the world's largest diesel suppliers and forcing Moscow to cut exports. > Robert Campbell, an analyst at Energy Aspects, pointed out that a large amount of refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia is offline, making the US the "supplier of last resort." Currently, US refineries are operating at full capacity, delivering record amounts of fuel to the global market, but analysts warn that **this situation is unsustainable as inventories continue to decline.** The current US refining system is operating near full load, meaning there is almost no buffer space left in the system. Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners, stated: > "When the refining system is running at full capacity, every producer is critical. Any shutdown, whether due to war or accidents, can significantly tighten supply." Tom Kloza also warned that the threat of natural disasters such as hurricanes cannot be ignored. "Just the threat of a storm could make the situation quite ugly," he said. "**There is a possibility of so-called 'absurd numbers'—five, six, or even seven dollars per gallon**." ## Farmers and Truck Drivers Bear the Brunt as Inflationary Pressure Spreads Across the Chain Rising diesel prices have a particularly direct impact on industries reliant on diesel. Trucking and agriculture are the two most affected sectors, and their rising costs will be transmitted to the broader economy through the supply chain. The report stated that John Boyd, founder and chairman of the National Black Farmers Association, said that soaring diesel prices are pushing many farmers to the brink of bankruptcy. "Farmers are extremely vulnerable to rising diesel costs, and this comes after a significant increase in fertilizer prices—which also stems from the Iran war," he said. "The fuel tank of my field tractor holds about 100 gallons, and the cost to fill it up is already quite high." Furthermore, the current timing is particularly sensitive: **many households are preparing to purchase heating oil before winter, retailers are stocking up for the holiday season, and farmers are in a critical preparation period before the harvest season. The 叠加 of multiple demands further exacerbates supply pressure.** ## Political Pressure Mounts, White House Faces Policy Choices The surge in diesel prices is intensifying the political pressure facing the Trump administration on the eve of the midterm elections. A recent poll by the Financial Times showed that a majority of voters believe their economic situation has worsened during Trump's presidency. The report stated that the White House has taken several responsive measures, including coordinating the release of strategic reserves at record levels and lifting some sanctions on crude oil exports from Iran and Russia. However, with the election approaching and voter dissatisfaction rising, analysts believe the government may adopt more radical measures, such as restricting fuel exports—although a White House official insisted that such options are currently not under consideration. Kevin Book bluntly stated: **"Those bad ideas that were rejected in April might be reconsidered if prices remain high in October."** ### Related Stocks - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [03175.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03175.HK.md) - [03097.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03097.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [The Iran War Sent Gas Prices Skyrocketing, but the US Now Faces a Diesel Problem](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296343018.md) - [Oil edges up on uncertainty over exports through Hormuz](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296282399.md) - [W.Africa Crude - Market holds steady](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296255852.md) - [Oil extends climb on prolonged Hormuz export uncertainty](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296302371.md) - [W.Africa Crude - Market quiet, awaiting loading programs](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296384200.md)