--- title: "U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major index futures all decline, Walmart falls after earnings, institutions warn that the U.S. Treasury's increased long-term bond repurchases may not prevent the yield curve from steepening" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296486024.md" description: "On August 20th, before the US stock market opened, the three major stock index futures all fell. Major European stock indices also declined, while oil prices rose. JP Morgan warned that the lack of credibility in the US Treasury Secretary's bond buyback could push up yields; Aegon believes this move is unlikely to prevent the yield curve from steepening" datetime: "2026-08-20T11:54:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296486024.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296486024.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296486024.md) --- # U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major index futures all decline, Walmart falls after earnings, institutions warn that the U.S. Treasury's increased long-term bond repurchases may not prevent the yield curve from steepening ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of August 20 (Thursday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.33%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.23%. ![41.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260820/1787226602428522.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.53%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.24%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.25%. ![42.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260820/1787226605275979.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 3.25%, priced at $87.13 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 2.89%, priced at $94.27 per barrel. ![43.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260820/1787226608756178.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **JP Morgan warns: The U.S. Treasury's doubling of bond buybacks lacks credibility, and long-term yields may face upward pressure again.** JP Morgan strategists warn that the market may perceive the U.S. Treasury's unexpected measures to curb long-term financing costs as lacking credibility, which could raise term premiums and yields over time. Strategists, including Jay Barry, wrote in a report, "Without genuine fiscal consolidation, we worry that the market will view this action as lacking credibility," adding, "If the Treasury becomes more opportunistic in its debt management approach and further deviates from its 'conventional and predictable' principles, this could lead to higher term premiums and yields over time." **Aegon "stands firm" against the U.S. Treasury: Increasing long bond buybacks is "of little significance," and the steepening logic remains unchanged.** Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's attempts to curb long bond rates, Aegon Asset Management remains firmly betting that the spread between short-term and long-term borrowing costs in the U.S. will continue to widen. According to Aegon portfolio manager James Lynch, expanding the scale of long U.S. bond buybacks is "of little significance" and will not change his view that the yield curve in the U.S. and Europe will continue to steepen. Lynch stated, "Fiscal issues—large deficits, the impact of massive corporate debt flooding the market, inflation rates still above target levels, coupled with the Federal Reserve's unclear communication—inject additional premiums into the market. I do not believe these factors will disappear anytime soon." **The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long bond buybacks may exacerbate inflation risks, analysts say: The Federal Reserve faces a more complex policy environment.** Economists and bond traders believe that if the Treasury continues to lower long-term rates by adjusting the debt structure, it may stimulate economic activity and increase inflation stickiness, while making the U.S. government's debt financing costs more susceptible to changes in short-term rates In addition, this may put greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain policy independence. Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US, stated that policy is gradually moving towards a direction that may require central bank support for fiscal goals. He believes that intervention by the Treasury could distort the market and put the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Waller, in a more challenging policy environment. Wil Stith, Senior Bond Portfolio Manager at Wilmington Trust, indicated that if inflation remains unchanged or continues to rise, the easing effect of the Treasury's suppression of long-term yields could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively. **The AI debt tsunami is coming, and September is just the testing period for U.S. Treasuries.** As the U.S. Treasury alleviates pressure on the Treasury market by expanding its long-term bond repurchase program, another massive wave of debt financing is unfolding. The core driving force behind this round of financing expansion comes from AI infrastructure construction. The U.S. investment-grade corporate bond market typically sees a peak in issuance after Labor Day. With the financing needs of large-scale cloud computing companies increasing, corporate bond issuance in September could reach $200 billion, potentially delivering a new shock to the already pressured Treasury market. According to market institutions, since 2026, the issuance of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds has increased by 38% year-on-year, with the total issuance expected to reach a record $2.1 trillion for the year. A significant portion of the new supply comes from AI-related capital expenditures. This wave of supply, combined with the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, rising inflation expectations, and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy, is reshaping the supply-demand dynamics in the fixed income market. **Is the U.S. economy at risk of "collapsing at any moment"? Three indicators are flashing red, with the AI bubble being the last straw.** Finnish economist Tuomas Malinen, who specializes in financial crises and geopolitics, believes that while there is currently no clear timeline for a recession in the U.S. economy, the downside risks have clearly increased after analyzing several key indicators in the U.S. financial markets and economy. He pointed out that bankruptcy filings in the U.S. have risen to the highest level since the pandemic, and the private sector yield curve is signaling that "a U.S. recession is about to begin." Meanwhile, new orders in U.S. manufacturing are the only indicator still sending positive signals, but this is not enough to offset other risks, as current economic growth in the U.S. seems highly concentrated in a few sectors. He is particularly concerned that the AI investment boom could create a new market bubble. If AI trading suddenly collapses, the economy could weaken rapidly, similar to the aftermath of the internet bubble burst. ## Individual Stock News **Walmart (WMT.US) Q2 results mixed, full-year guidance below expectations.** The earnings report shows that Walmart's Q2 revenue grew by 6% year-on-year to $187.94 billion, better than the market expectation of $186.6 billion; same-store sales increased by 2.6%, below the market expectation of 3.8%; adjusted earnings per share were $0.81, better than the market expectation of $0.74. Additionally, the company's performance guidance was below expectations. The company expects Q3 sales to grow by 3%-3.75%; it anticipates adjusted earnings per share of $0.62-$0.64, below the market expectation of $0.68. The company also expects full-year sales to grow by 4%-5% (previously expected to be 3.5%-4.5%), below the market expectation of 5.3% The expected adjusted earnings per share for the full year is $2.80-$2.87 (previously expected to be $2.75-$2.85), which is below the market expectation of $2.90. As of the time of publication, Walmart's stock fell over 6% in pre-market trading on Thursday. **Alibaba (BABA.US) reported a 75.56% year-on-year decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter, while revenue from AI-related products achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth for twelve consecutive quarters.** Alibaba announced its quarterly results for the period ending June 30, 2026, with revenue of 268.953 billion yuan ($39.639 billion), a year-on-year increase of 9%. Operating profit was 15.161 billion yuan ($2.234 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 57%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 10.537 billion yuan ($1.553 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 75.56%. Among them, revenue from AI cloud and computing services was 48.437 billion yuan ($7.139 billion), with total revenue and revenue from external customers both accelerating to a year-on-year growth of 45%. This growth momentum was primarily driven by the increased adoption of AI-related products. Revenue from AI-related products continued to maintain strong momentum, reaching 12.376 billion yuan ($1.824 billion), achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for the twelfth consecutive quarter. **SK Hynix (SKHY.US) has preliminarily finalized its "huge bonus" distribution plan: 60% in stock and 40% in cash, with an average of 779 million won per person expected.** According to an insider, South Korean chip giant SK Hynix has reached an agreement in a preliminary salary agreement to distribute 60% of this year's employee bonuses in the form of company stock, with the remaining 40% paid in cash. The insider further pointed out that under the latest plan, employees will receive stock equivalent to 40% of the total bonus in 2027, while the remaining 20% of stock will be deferred until 2028 and 2029, with no lock-up period for this portion of the stock. The remaining 40% of the bonus will be paid in cash in a lump sum in 2027. Additionally, SK Hynix announced on Wednesday that it will repurchase and cancel treasury shares worth 40 trillion won (approximately $28.6 billion) and will use over 50% of the free cash flow generated from 2025 to 2027 to enhance shareholder returns. **SpaceX (SPCX.US) is facing another round of lock-up expiration: 319 million shares will be tradable, and investors are concerned whether Musk's employees will sell.** The second round of lock-up expiration for SpaceX shares post-IPO is approaching, with up to 319 million shares held by insiders becoming tradable on August 20 local time, accounting for about 7% of the shares held by early investors and employees. This expiration means that more employees and investors who obtained SpaceX shares before the IPO can sell their stocks, and the market will be watching whether the new supply will put pressure on the stock price. However, shares held by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and some key investors remain under a longer lock-up period and will not be affected by this expiration. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes that the expiration pressure may not be a risk but rather an investment opportunity **IBM (IBM.US) Quantum Computing Reaches Key Milestone: Successfully Connects and Cools Two Low-Temperature Modules, Aiming to Launch the World's First Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer by 2029.** IBM announced that it has successfully connected and cooled two low-temperature modules to the same operating environment and completed preliminary testing. The company stated that this modular architecture is designed to expand into a super-low-temperature shared system capable of connecting hundreds of quantum chips, marking a key step towards the launch of IBM Quantum Starling in 2029. IBM expects Quantum Starling to become the world's first fault-tolerant quantum computer, integrating advancements in error correction, processor design, decoding, and system engineering. Compared to the most widely used IBM quantum systems today, each module's vacuum shell provides up to 12 times the wiring space. IBM noted that this supports more chip-to-chip connections both within and between modules, providing the hardware foundation for larger-scale quantum computing. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast Beijing Time 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 15 Beijing Time 20:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August Beijing Time 20:30 Speech by 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Beijing Time 23:10 Interview with 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on CNBC ## Earnings Forecast Friday Morning: Ross Stores (ROST.US) Friday Pre-Market: Beike (BEKE.US) ### Related Stocks - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM.US.md) - [WMT.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WMT.US.md) - [AEG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEG.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BNO.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCO.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USO.US.md) - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UCO.US.md) - [JPMO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPMO.US.md) - [JPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPX.US.md) - [GUSH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GUSH.US.md) - [DRIP.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DRIP.US.md) - [SPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md) - [IVV.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IVV.US.md) - [VOO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VOO.US.md) - [SPLG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPLG.US.md) - [SPXL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [UPRO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [SSO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SSO.US.md) - [SH.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SH.US.md) - [SPXS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [SPXU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [SDS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDS.US.md) - [SPYI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPYI.US.md) - [JEPI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JEPI.US.md) - [XYLD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XYLD.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [BABA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BABA.US.md) - [09988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09988.HK.md) - [SKHY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SKHY.US.md) - [IBM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBM.US.md) - [ROST.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ROST.US.md) - [BEKE.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BEKE.US.md) - [02423.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02423.HK.md) - [JPM-M.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-M.US.md) - [JPM-C.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-C.US.md) - [JPM-D.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-D.US.md) - [JPM-L.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-L.US.md) - [8634.JP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/8634.JP.md) - [JPM-K.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-K.US.md) - [JPM-J.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/JPM-J.US.md) - [AEGOF.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEGOF.US.md) - [89988.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/89988.HK.md) - [HBBD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HBBD.SG.md) ## Related News & Research - [Aegon boosts second-half buyback after capital generation beats forecasts](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296444217.md) - [WMT Stock Slides as Walmart Same-Store Sales Disappoint](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296524455.md) - [Walmart just flashed a warning sign about the US consumer — and its stock is tumbling](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296506875.md) - [Walmart strong again in second quarter, but its outlook is reserved](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296480956.md) - [Walmart stock is having its worst day in years. 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