--- title: "The Treasury, the Fed and the threat to your money" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/296643426.md" description: "Rising U.S. Treasury yields and potential Fed rate hikes are causing market volatility, with the S&P 500 and Dow down 1.8% for the week. Despite long-term bond yield increases, major indices remain up significantly year-to-date. Key concerns include mortgage rates potentially reaching 7%, the dollar's status as a safe haven, and warnings of a stock market correction. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs identified 20 companies poised for AI-driven productivity gains, and Apple faces leadership transition as Tim Cook steps down." datetime: "2026-08-21T18:15:31.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/296643426.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296643426.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/296643426.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # The Treasury, the Fed and the threat to your money By Philip van Doorn Also in Weekend Reads: The Gen Z online sports-betting trend, what's next for Apple as Tim Cook exits, and a bullish take on Nvidia heading into earnings Investors are sensitive to any policy pronouncements from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (left) or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds rise. The movement of U.S. Treasury bond yields can have a dramatic effect on investors as bond prices fall, on savers who have new opportunities to earn attractive yields, and on people looking to buy homes at a time when mortgage rates are rising. On Friday, 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds BX:TMUBMUSD30Y were yielding 5.27%, which was slightly higher than a week earlier, despite the Treasury Department's intervention on Wednesday when it announced the doubling of its buybacks of long-dated bonds. That move caused the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds to decline 10 basis points that day, before climbing back by 6 basis points on Thursday. For comparison, at the end of 2025, 30-year Treasury bonds were yielding 4.85%. "No one can tell you with a straight face where interest rates are going," Jim Lebenthal, who was a market strategist specializing in municipal bonds, wrote in 2009 in his now-classic "Lebenthal on Munis." But that doesn't keep investors or government officials from trying. The typical pattern has been that government interventions to push bond yields lower, or to defend a country's currency, fail to outweigh selling by investors. The rapid increase in long-term Treasury yields as investors have sold the bonds has caused worry over the dollar's status as a safe haven. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy is also in play, as action in the bond market often precedes moves by the central bank to raise or lower interest rates. All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh next Friday when he delivers a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's most recent meeting showed growing support for raising the target range for the federal-funds rate. Here is MarketWatch's full coverage of this unfolding set of policy moves and how they might affect the dollar, federal spending and the economy: -- The biggest loser from the Treasury's latest buyback plan: The U.S. dollar. Here's why. -- The rise in interest rates hit a 'raw nerve' at the White House. Bessent's plan has analysts on edge. -- The U.S. government plans to crack down on its $40 trillion debt - but brace for a 'wrenching time' ahead -- Anxious bond market sends troubling message to investors: There's no easy fix for U.S. debt The stock market's muted reaction and what might lie ahead The S&P 500 SPX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA were each down 1.8% for the week through Thursday's close, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP pulled back 2.5%. Those were significant declines, but the S&P 500 was still up 12.5% for 2026, while the Dow was up 9.8% and the Nasdaq was up 12.6% year to date. Mark Hulbert described the complex relationship between the stock market and interest rates and explained why the stock market hasn't fallen significantly even as long-term rates have shot up. But there is no shortage of warnings that the stock market is headed for a broad decline: -- Brett Arends: The bond market is going to burst the stock-market bubble -- Michael Brush: Five reasons we're headed for a 10% stock-market correction - or worse Could mortgage rates rise to 7%? Aarthi Swaminathan looked into how the rise in Treasury bond yields has affected mortgage rates and how home sellers and home builders have been reacting. She also provided tips for new homeowners on how to avoid five expensive surprises. More on being frugal: American consumers are delivering a retail reality check as they laser in on bargains How investors can focus on companies' adoption of AI Analysts at Goldman Sachs named 20 companies - including many nontech names - that are expected to show the most productivity improvement as they integrate artificial-intelligence technology. The Need To Know column presents ideas from professional investors and traders every morning when the stock market is open. You can sign up to have it waiting in your inbox. This week, Jamie Chisholm looked at research by analysts at Goldman Sachs who ranked 20 companies expected to see the greatest gains in productivity as they deploy AI. Related: Hedge funds are doubling down on megacap tech stocks after summer volatility triggers massive portfolio cleanup What's in store for Apple under its new leadership? Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook will step down on Sept. 1 after 15 years at the helm. Christine Ji looked into how the iPhone maker, which focused on operating excellence under Cook, might pivot toward more product innovation and AI adoption after John Ternus takes over as CEO. Nvidia (NVDA) will announce its quarterly results on Wednesday. Here's a very bullish take on Nvidia's stock from BofA analyst Vivek Arya. More coverage from the MarketWatch technology team: -- The chip-stock rally hits a speed bump - but these analysts see reason to be hopeful -- AMD is betting on dirt-cheap AI chips, but financing them is a major question mark -- ServiceNow's stock leads a software rally. Here's what's energizing investors. -- More SpaceX stock is about to hit the market. Here's what to know. Online sports betting instead of investing Online sports betting has become so popular that Volatility Shares wants to combine it with investing. The investment firm, which concentrates on offering leveraged ETFs, is proposing 32 new exchange-traded funds to track the performance of each NHL team, with the hockey league's blessing. Beth Pinsker writes the Fix My Portfolio column. This week she looked into the phenomenon of young adults considering sports betting to be a way to build wealth. Related coverage: -- Gambling is everywhere. How do financial advisers keep clients from going overboard? -- Wall Street wants to turn sports betting into ETFs. Critics call it dangerous nonsense. A practical setup for safe, predictable retirement income Market Hulbert provided a step-by-step guide to setting up a retirement income stream for 30 years with a guaranteed inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 5%. How much money do you need to become a snowbird? Beth Pinsker worked out the numbers for a retiree who wants to spend winters in Florida and the rest of the year at home in Illinois. Do you need retirement-planning advice? Fill out the MarketWatch Retirement Questionnaire and one of our columnists might answer your question. Another plan: I'm leaving my grandkids money - but they must pass financial-literacy classes to get it. Is that fair? A travel tip to save real money Don't Short Yourself - MarketWatch's new weekly newsletter - offers smart tips to help you earn and grow your money. This week in the Don't Short Yourself newsletter, Genna Contino shared her experience working with a travel agent who helped her cut the price of a European vacation by $2,000. A medical breakthrough The State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF is designed to provide "unconcentrated" exposure to large and small biotechnology companies. The exchange-traded fund has nearly tripled the performance of the S&P 500 so far this year. The blue line on the chart above shows the year-to-date total return for the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF XBI, which takes a modified equal-weighted approach to holding stocks of large-cap, midcap and small-cap companies. The chart also includes the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB, which is weighted by market capitalization so that the top five stocks make up a third of the portfolio. Then there is the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF XLV, which tracks the S&P 500 healthcare sector, and finally the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, which tracks the full S&P 500. The exchange-traded fund taking the broad approach to biotech is in the lead with a 34% return this year through Thursday. But for August, the cap-weighted IBB is in the lead, because Moderna's (MRNA) stock has gained 143%. Investors have been enthusiastic about positive results during Stage 3 trials of Moderna's experimental mRNA therapeutic vaccine to prevent the recurrence of melanoma and other cancers when paired with Merck's (MRK) Keytruda medication. MarketWatch's healthcare editor Jaimy Lee covered these developments: -- Moderna's personalized mRNA shot could reshape the fight against skin cancer - but it may also be overhyped -- Moderna's cancer-vaccine breakthrough drives broad biopharma stock rally -- Moderna's experimental vaccine prevents cancer recurrence, in 'historic' win for personalized medicine. Its stock soared. More healthcare coverage: Soon you can buy Medicare Advantage plans at Costco. What you need to know. The Moneyist, the family feud and the new estate plan Quentin Fottrell is the Moneyist. This week Quentin Fottrell - the Moneyist - helped a woman whose 99-year-old grandmother wants to cut her only child - the letter writer's mother - out of her will. This is a complicated scenario. Here is Fottrell's advice on how the grandmother can redesign her estate plan with no interference from family members. More from the Moneyist: -- We're in our 50s and have $1.5 million in traditional 401(k) s. Is it too early to start Roth conversions? -- Our 4-year-old son has $100,000 in his 529 account. Is a bull market a bad time to buy him stocks instead? -- 'It's truly a tragedy': My daughter hasn't spoken to me for four years, but it has nothing to do with politics Want more from MarketWatch? Sign up for this and other newsletters to get the latest news and advice on personal -Philip van Doorn (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires 08-21-26 1415ET ### Related Stocks - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [AAPU.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPU.US.md) - [.DJI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [AAPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPX.US.md) - [AAPD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPD.US.md) - [AAPB.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPB.US.md) - [DIA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [DDM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DDM.US.md) - [UDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UDOW.US.md) - [DOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DOG.US.md) - [SDOW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SDOW.US.md) - [DXD.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DXD.US.md) - [AAPW.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPW.US.md) - [APLY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/APLY.US.md) - [AAPY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPY.US.md) - [MAGX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MAGX.US.md) - [.SPX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [.IXIC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [GS.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [W4VR.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/W4VR.SG.md) - [NVD.DE](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVD.DE.md) ## Related News & Research - [Pioneer Wealth Management Group Purchases 6,640 Shares of Apple Inc. $AAPL](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296591265.md) - [FNY Investment Advisers LLC Decreases Stock Holdings in Apple Inc. $AAPL](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296675944.md) - [Amazon Thinks AI Is About to Change the Way We Shop. Goodbye, Search Bar.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296251288.md) - [Apple paid 40% of its global taxes to Ireland in last fiscal year](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296632032.md) - [St. Clair Advisors LLC Trims Position in Apple Inc. $AAPL](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296327662.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**