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Technicals | Lam Research (LRCX.US): MACD Death Cross Adds to Pullback Risk

Technical Forecast
Sep 15, 2026 at 01:05 PM
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Lam Research (LRCX.US) printed a daily MACD death cross on Sept. 14, with DIF and DEA both below the zero line after the stock fell more than 8% on turnover of about USD 3.8 billion. The drop tracked a sector-wide release of risk: the US memory chip and hardware supply chain index lost more than 6%, peers Teradyne, Micron and Applied Materials fell 5% or more, and debate over the pace of artificial intelligence capital spending, China export controls and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% weighed on valuations. A Sept. 14 filing showed director Bethany Mayer sold about USD 3 million of stock, though Lam had raised its 2026 wafer fabrication equipment spending outlook on Sept. 11 and Mizuho kept a Strong Buy rating on Sept. 15. The shares closed below the lower Bollinger Band, and RSI(6) near 26, CCI, BIAS and KDJ are all in oversold territory. The near-term bias is bearish, and the swing factors are whether price reclaims its short-term moving averages, what the Fed signals on rates, and whether equipment peers stabilize.

Lam Research (LRCX.US) printed a daily MACD death cross on Sept. 14, and the signal points to a near-term pullback. The stock fell more than 8% that Monday on turnover of about USD 3.8 billion, well above its recent average. Both DIF and DEA sit below the zero line, so the bullish momentum built during the prior rebound has largely run out. The shares gapped lower at the open and never filled the gap, leaving the 5-, 10- and 20-day moving averages above the price and starting to line up in bearish order. Most of the selling came in the opening stretch, the classic shape of a gap-down pullback on heavy volume.

The selloff reads as a sector-wide release of risk rather than a company-specific problem. The US memory chip and hardware supply chain index fell more than 6% on Sept. 14, and peers Teradyne (TER.US), Micron (MU.US) and Applied Materials (AMAT.US) each lost 5% or more. Lam moved roughly in step with the group. Three pressures set the tone. The debate over how fast artificial intelligence capital spending should run has widened, and some in the industry are urging slower development. China export controls remain a source of geopolitical uncertainty. A 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and higher oil prices squeeze valuations for high-multiple semiconductor equipment names.

Company disclosures added noise on top of the sector move. A Sept. 14 filing showed director Bethany Mayer sold about USD 3 million of stock, and a sale of that size tends to be read more harshly during a broad semiconductor decline. The fundamentals have not turned the same way. On Sept. 11 the company raised its 2026 wafer fabrication equipment spending outlook to the low end of the USD 150 billion range and described customer demand as essentially sold out. Revenue, operating margin and earnings per share all set records in the June quarter reported at the end of July, and on Aug. 27 Lam lifted its quarterly dividend by 27%. Ahead of the Sept. 15 open, Mizuho called the semiconductor selloff a buying opportunity and kept its Strong Buy rating on Lam.

Oversold readings now dominate the chart. The stock has closed below the lower Bollinger Band, and the band width is expanding, which points to a rise in volatility. RSI(6) has slipped to around 26, CCI and BIAS are also in oversold territory, and the K line of KDJ has crossed below 50. A death cross that appears after a sharp fall has historically brought a technical bounce first, not an immediate trend reversal. Turning that bounce into a lasting repair requires volume and price to work together again.

The near-term bias is bearish, and the cross remains a warning until trading volume backs it up. What to watch: whether the stock reclaims its short-term moving averages quickly, what Treasury yields and this week's Federal Reserve meeting signal on rates, and whether equipment peers such as KLA Corporation (KLAC.US) stabilize alongside it. The read improves if turnover shrinks quickly over the next few sessions and the shares steady back above those averages, which would point to a one-off sector shock. It deteriorates if the stock breaks below the lower edge of its recent range, if artificial intelligence capital spending expectations are revised down again, or if the Fed sounds hawkish. The correction would then likely take longer and cut deeper, and uncertainty this high argues for watching volatility in both directions.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or capital markets product. It has been prepared without regard to your individual investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance is not indicative of future results. Longbridge and its affiliates accept no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.

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