CICC Cuts BILIBILI-W TP to HKD159.2 as Ad Growth Slows

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CICC lowered Bilibili's target price by 18% to HKD159.2 and its US stock TP to USD20.5, citing slowing advertising growth. The broker maintained an Outperform rating but cut the 2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecast by 2.2%. Bilibili is expected to report Q3 results in November with revenue up 7.3% YoY. Gaming revenue is projected flat QoQ in Q3, while ad growth is expected to decelerate from 20% in Q3 to 15% in Q4.

CICC issued a report forecasting that BILIBILI-W (09626.HK) +4.500 (+4.065%) Short selling $86.68M; Ratio 23.476% will release its 3Q results in mid-to-late November. Revenue is expected to reach RMB8.245 billion, up 7.3% YoY. Non-GAAP operating profit is forecast at RMB811 million, up 17.9% YoY, while Non-GAAP net profit is expected at RMB829 million, up 5.3% YoY.

Due to slowing growth in the advertising business, the broker lowered its 2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecast by 2.2% to RMB3 billion, while maintaining its 2027 Non-GAAP net profit forecast at RMB3.4 billion. The broker maintained its Outperform rating, but cut its TP by 18% to HKD159.2 due to slower advertising growth. The US stock TP for Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) was also lowered to USD20.5.

On the gaming front, "Shine! Lumi" launched on Sep 17 and its first-month performance was in line with expectations. The broker expected 3Q gaming revenue to remain flat QoQ, with a return to positive YoY growth in 4Q. For advertising, 3Q ad revenue growth is expected at 20% YoY, slowing to 15% YoY in 4Q, while full-year 2026 ad revenue growth is forecast at 22% YoY.(ha/ad)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-10-15 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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