By Christopher Romano

Oct 21 (Reuters) - Shares in UnitedHealth Group (UNH.N) could be ready for another phase of gains, technical analysis suggests.

Click here for a detailed technical analysis chart.

Technical analysis uses charts of past price moves to map out where a market might go next. Weekly charts are particularly useful in plotting out longer-term trends.

UnitedHealth’s stock rose 80% between March and July, hitting a peak of $461.62, strongest in more than a year. It then gave back about half of that gain over the next 2-¹⁄₂ months, bottoming out at a five-month low of $362.60 on October 1, according to LSEG data.

Technical analysts call such pullbacks retracements, and they are common during rallies. What analysts try to do during these retracements is figure out which chart levels might act as support during the retreat – effectively a floor for prices – and where a stock might encounter resistance, which is like a ceiling or a cap on gains.

Analysts find these levels in several places. They include moving averages, which smooth out price swings by averaging prices over a set period. They also include previous highs and lows, as well as Fibonacci retracements. Fibonacci retracements are mathematical calculations that mark the percentages stocks often retreat to after a big move.

Significantly for UnitedHealth, the shares ended their recent retreat near the halfway point of the spring-and-summer rally – that is, the widely watched 50% retracement level. That 50% retracement level lined up with support derived from a set of highs and lows near that area in September and October 2025, reinforcing its importance and boosting the prospects of a rebound in UnitedHealth shares.

When analysts start to chart a possible rally, they often use tools that measure volatility and momentum to confirm their view. Volatility is how much a stock’s price swings, and momentum reflects how strongly a stock is moving in one direction.

One such tool is Bollinger Bands. These are two lines drawn above and below a moving average of the stock’s price. They widen when price swings grow larger.

Another is Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD. It compares two moving averages of different lengths to show whether buying pressure is building or fading. A third is the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. It gauges the speed of recent price changes to show whether a stock is gaining or losing strength. All three suggest UnitedHealth is gaining upward momentum.

On that basis, UnitedHealth shares could rise toward the $437 to $440 area, which roughly matches some weekly highs from July. The next hurdle is the 200-week moving average near $448. That is the average of the past 200 weeks of prices, which long-term investors watch closely. Beyond that, the stock could climb to the $455 to $460 area, close to the July peak.

A fall below $400 would raise serious questions about the stock’s ability to rally.

Responding to an email requesting comment, UnitedHealth referred Reuters to a transcript of its earnings conference call on October 13, the day the company raised its 2026 profit forecast, which CEO Stephen J. Hemsley said reinforced the company’s confidence in growing in 2027 and beyond in its “13% to 16% long-term target growth range.”

What the chart shows:

UnitedHealth rallied by 80% March-July, then lost half of those gains
Gains could target the $437 to $440 area, $448 and $455 to $460
A fall below $400 would cast doubt on the rally

(Mapping the Market is a daily column written by Reuters journalists. The commentary is based on a technical analysis of financial charts, which helps assess the likelihood of future price moves but does not guarantee the outcome. The column does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations. )

(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Burton Frierson and David Gaffen)

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