I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Moderna (MRNA) shares continued to fall, dropping another 6% in pre-market trading after an 18% plunge the previous day. The decline followed the release of full results for its skin-cancer treatment INT, which showed a hazard ratio of 0.58, falling short of investor expectations. Analysts from RBC Capital and TD Cowen expressed caution, citing uncertain commercial success and metrics below projections. Wall Street consensus remains 'Hold' with significant downside risk.
Shares of U.S. vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) fell another 6% to about $191 during Friday's pre-market session, extending Thursday's 17.57% plunge. The earlier decline came after the full results of its recent skin-cancer treatment breakthrough leaked online. This happened before the company's presentation at a major European cancer conference. Selling pressure continued into Friday as some analysts argued the results fell short of expectations.
Moderna Stock Sells Off Despite Full Study Results
In August, Moderna's shares rallied sharply. This followed the company's announcement about its phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial. The late-stage study of its experimental drug intismeran autogene (INT) was successful.
The drug greatly improves the prevention of melanoma skin cancer from coming back in patients by personalizing treatments. The benefit occurred when the treatment was combined with Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, rather than Keytruda alone.
On Thursday, Moderna shared the full results at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress 2026. The biotech firm said INT combined with Keytruda reduced the risk of the cancer reappearing by 42%, based on a median follow-up of 24.6 months. This came with a hazard ratio of 0.58.
'Commercial Success Is Far Less Certain,' Says RBC Capital
Commenting on the official full results, five-star RBC Capital analyst Trung Huynh said the numbers fell short of expectations. He added that the drug's commercial success remains uncertain.
According to the analyst, investors expected a hazard ratio of 0.50 to 0.59 for recurrence-free survival (RFS). In other words, the reported ratio of 0.58 came in at the low end of expectations.
In fact, bullish investors hoped the result would match the 0.51 ratio recorded during phase 2 of the trial.
"While approval seems likely, commercial success is far less certain," Huynh noted. "The data raises fundamental questions about INT's value proposition relative to standards of care, particularly neoadjuvant immunotherapy, which produces similar efficacy at potentially much less cost," the analyst further argued.
TD Cowen Says a Key Metric Came In Below Expectations
Meanwhile, five-star TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren weighed in on Moderna before the official result. Based on the leaked data, he noted that the distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) hazard ratio of 0.62 is favorable but below elevated expectations.
DMFS measures how long a cancer patient lives without the cancer spreading to distant organs or tissues, such as the lungs, liver, or bones. Indeed, Moderna reported a DMFS hazard ratio of 0.62.
Ahead of the results, Van Buren maintained his Hold rating on Moderna shares. He kept his price target at $90, suggesting about 56% downside risk.
Is Moderna a Good Stock to Own?
On Wall Street, analysts remain cautious on Moderna's shares and maintain a Hold consensus rating. This reflects three Buys, 14 Holds, and three Sells from 20 analysts over the past three months.
Moreover, the average MRNA price target of $118.13 suggests about 42% downside risk ahead (see MRNA stock forecast here).