The Dow rose 11 days in a row for the longest period of six and a half years, with the index up more than 4%, the biggest gain in five months.

The US economic data is mixed. In June, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -0.32, significantly lower than the expected -0.16 and the previous value of -0.15. The preliminary July Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 49, the highest in three months, but the preliminary Services PMI dropped to 52.4, the lowest in five months, indicating a slowdown in US business activity and dim demand prospects. However, US data is relatively better than Europe. The services sector has been expanding for six consecutive months, and new export orders in the manufacturing sector have rebounded. Moreover, the preliminary input price index for the services sector has dropped to the lowest level since October 2020. These indicators show that the Federal Reserve's vision of an "economic soft landing" is taking effect. According to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) in the US, the majority of economists believe that the possibility of a recession in the next 12 months is not more than 50%, and more than a quarter of them believe that the possibility of a recession in the next year is not more than 25%. In the Eurozone, the preliminary reading of the composite PMI for July showed a contraction in business activity far beyond expectations, falling to an eight-month low of 48.9. Business activity in France, Germany, and the UK all slowed down, increasing the risk of an economic recession in Europe and causing the euro to plunge before the US stock market opened. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will announce their monetary policies from Wednesday to Friday. The market fully expects the Federal Reserve and the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each, and both are nearing the end of the rate hike cycle. The Bank of Japan may maintain its ultra-low interest rates and yield curve control. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" wrote that the Federal Reserve is not ready to declare victory over inflation and does not believe that inflation has cooled enough. The S&P 500 will enter one of the busiest earnings seasons of the second quarter this week, with approximately 40% of the Dow components and 30% of the S&P 500 components releasing earnings reports, including heavyweight tech stocks such as Google, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as large pharmaceutical companies, oil companies, and industrial companies. Traders are also paying attention to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for June, which is the preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the core PCE will drop from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis, and from 4.6% to 4.2% on a year-on-year basis, continuing the trend of cooling inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen for 11 consecutive days, marking the longest period in six and a half years and reaching the highest level in over 17 months. The China concept stocks index has risen by more than 4%, achieving the largest increase in five months. On Monday, July 24th, the three major US stock indexes opened slightly higher, with the Nasdaq briefly turning negative in the early trading session but rebounding within the first hour of trading. At the end of the day, the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, and the Russell small-cap stocks significantly narrowed their gains, and the small-cap stocks also briefly turned negative before the midday break. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 210 points and led the major indexes, marking the longest winning streak since February 2017 and reaching the highest level in over 17 months since February 9th of last year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are close to the highs set last Wednesday since early April last year, and the Russell small-cap stocks are close to the highs set last Wednesday in over five months. The S&P 500 index closed up 18.30 points, a gain of 0.40%, at 4554.64 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.55 points, or 0.52%, to 35,411.24 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 26.06 points, or 0.19%, to 14,058.87 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.14%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index gained 0.28%. During the day, the Dow Jones surged more than 210 points and closed near its daily high, while the Nasdaq and small-cap stocks briefly turned negative. All 11 sectors of the S&P showed gains, with the energy sector leading the way with a 1.7% increase. Financials and real estate rose by about 1%, while consumer discretionary stocks gained over 0.5%. Telecommunications services and information technology/tech both rose over 0.4%. Defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities fell by up to 0.3%. Most of the popular tech stocks rose, but "metaverse" companies Meta and Amazon both fell by nearly 1% to a two-week low. Netflix rebounded slightly from its one-month low, Apple rose 0.4% and approached the all-time high set last Wednesday, Tesla rose 3.5% to move away from its monthly low, Microsoft rose 0.4% to move away from its one-week low, and Google Class A shares rose over 1% for the second consecutive day after hitting a one-week low. Most chip stocks experienced a pullback, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 0.2%, but still not far from its 18-month high. AMD fell 0.3% and hovered around its one-month low, Intel turned negative by over 1%, but Nvidia rose 0.7% to move away from its one-week low, and TSMC's US-listed shares rose 1% to move away from their two-month low. Other AI concept stocks generally declined, but C3.ai rebounded slightly after the afternoon session, while Palantir Technologies fell nearly 2% and remained near its one-week low. SoundHound.ai fell nearly 8% to a one-and-a-half-month low, and BigBear.ai fell 2% to approach its four-month low. In other news: Germany plans to introduce a €20 billion subsidy for chip production, with Intel and TSMC already "locking in" about 75% of the funds. Reports indicate that Apple is internally using Apple GPT and has requested suppliers to produce approximately 85 million iPhone 15 units this year, which is roughly the same as the previous year, and may increase the price of the flagship Pro series. Baird predicts that Netflix will once again reach its early 2022 high of $500. UBS downgraded Tesla's rating to "sell," stating that the stock price may have already fully reflected the demand growth. Tesla may hold talks with the Indian Minister of Commerce this month regarding the construction of a new factory in India to produce a low-cost $24,000 car. Mizuho significantly raised Nvidia's target price from $400 to $530, a 20% increase from last Friday, and expressed optimism about the company's leadership position in artificial intelligence at least until 2027. Hot Chinese concept stocks lead the way. ETF KWEB rose 4.5%, CQQQ rose nearly 3%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 5.5% and closed up 4.3%, marking the largest increase since February and breaking through the 7100-point mark, approaching the highest level in over three months set on July 13. Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com rose 3.5%, Baidu rose over 5%, and Pinduoduo rose nearly 4%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba rose 4.5%, Tencent ADR rose over 2%, Bilibili and NIO rose nearly 11%, Xpeng Motors rose nearly 10%, and Li Auto rose over 3%. Lufax rose nearly 12%, Kanzhun.com rose over 11%, but Bit Digital and GDS Holdings fell by up to 4.11%, and Tianjin Tianhai Biological fell nearly 7%. Bank stocks hit the highest level since March 10. The industry benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 1.7%, reaching the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose 2.4%, reaching the lowest level since November 2020 on May 11; the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 2.5%, reaching the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4. The "Big Four" U.S. banks all rose more than 1%, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley rising 2%. Key regional banks performed well, with PacWest Bancorp rising nearly 9%, Western Alliance Bancorp and Zions Bancorporation rising about 3%, and Keycorp rising 4%. Bank stocks hit the highest level since March 10, outperforming tech stocks on Monday. Other stocks with significant changes include: "Retail investor favorite" AMC Entertainment rose over 33% to the highest level in over two months and the largest increase in 16 months. Pre-market trading saw it rise over 70%. A U.S. judge supported retail investors and rejected the company's proposed settlement agreement to convert preferred shares into common shares, which would have resulted in a large issuance of new shares. After the preferred shares fell 9%, they rebounded slightly. The company was also boosted by record-high attendance over the weekend of July 22-23, the highest since 2019, with its U.S. cinemas seeing the highest number of moviegoers on a Saturday and the "busiest day" since July 2019, thanks to the premieres of the movies "Barbie" and "Oldenburg". Toy manufacturer Mattel rose nearly 2% to a two-week high, as one of its Barbie dolls performed strongly at the North American box office during its opening weekend. Warner Bros. Discovery, the film producer, opened more than 1% higher, but then fell 2.5% from its high. "Oberman" drove the demand for IMAX screens among moviegoers, causing entertainment technology company IMAX to surge more than 8%, breaking away from a five-month low. The parent company of Universal Pictures, the distributor of the film, Comcast, rose nearly 1%. European stocks, except for France and Spain, rebounded in the late trading session. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.06%, marking a five-day consecutive increase to a new high in over five weeks. Sectors such as oil and gas, telecommunications, construction materials, and basic resources all rose by about 1%. However, the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index fell 0.2%. US Treasury Yields Rebound in V-shape, Short-term Yields Rise Sharply, Eurozone Yields All Drop More Than 4 Basis Points US Treasury yields rebounded during the US stock market session, with short-term yields rising more significantly. The market believes that the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate hike this week is a done deal, but it is likely to mark the end of this round of rate hikes. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose the most by 7 basis points and approached 4.92%, reaching a two-week high. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose nearly 4 basis points to approach 3.88%, erasing the decline since July 13. The US Treasury auctioned $42 billion in two-year government bonds with a bid rate of 4.823%, surpassing the level of 4.673% on February 21 and reaching a new high since 2007 after a five-month interval. US Treasury Yields Rebound in V-shape, Short-term Yields Rise Sharply Poor economic data pushed down Eurozone bond yields. The money market still expects the peak interest rate of the European Central Bank to be close to 4% by the end of the year, and the possibility of a continued rate hike in September is estimated to reach 50%. The 10-year benchmark German bond yield in the Eurozone fell more than 4 basis points to 2.42% at the end of the trading session, previously falling 7 basis points and breaking below 2.40% at one point. The two-year yield also fell 5 basis points to 3.19% at one point. Bond yields in France, Italy, and Greece all fell by about 5 basis points, while Spanish bond yields fell more than 4 basis points. International Oil Prices Rise Over 2%, Reaching Three-Month High Alongside US Gasoline, US Oil Rises 3%, European Natural Gas Rises 7% The prospect of supply shortages outweighed concerns about imminent interest rate hikes by central banks in Europe and the United States, and the market remains optimistic about the demand generated by China's stimulus policies. International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days to a three-month high, all closing above the 200-day moving average after four weeks of consecutive gains. WTI September crude oil futures rose $1.67, or 2.17%, to $78.74 per barrel, reaching the highest level since April 19. Brent September futures rose $1.67, or 2.06%, to $82.74 per barrel, reaching the highest level since April 24. The price of WTI crude oil rose by $2.21 or 2.9%, breaking through $79 per barrel, the highest in over three months since April 16, and also the first time it has reached $78 since April 25. Brent crude oil rose by $2 or 2.5%, briefly approaching $83. International oil prices rose by more than 2%, reaching a three-month high along with U.S. gasoline. Goldman Sachs, the "commodity leader," expects oil prices to rise in the short term. With demand reaching a historical high, the supply deficit in the third quarter is expected to be close to 2 million barrels per day, thereby raising the expected price of Brent crude oil from $80 per barrel to $86 by the end of the year. Citigroup also believes that oil prices will continue to rise this summer, with an average price of $83 per barrel in the third quarter. The reason is the growth in demand for gasoline and aviation fuel during the summer, while Saudi Arabia and Russia are reducing supply to influence the market. Under the influence of supply and demand imbalances, U.S. gasoline contracts have also reached their highest level since April 14, rising by 25% since May. The TTF Dutch natural gas futures, the European benchmark, rose by 8% to surpass the €30 per megawatt-hour mark at the close, moving away from a six-week low. ICE UK natural gas rose by 7%, approaching the lowest level in nearly two years since September 2021. The U.S. Dollar Index Rises for Five Consecutive Days, Stabilizing Above 101, Offshore Renminbi Briefly Breaks 7.18 Yuan, Bitcoin Approaches $29,000 Affected by the expectation of an interest rate hike in July and economic data showing that the United States is more resilient than other European and American economies, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures against a basket of six major currencies, stabilized above the 101 level, rising for five consecutive days and recovering more than half of the decline since July 12. The U.S. Dollar Index Rises for Five Consecutive Days, Stabilizing Above 101 The euro against the U.S. dollar fell the most by 0.5% and fell below 1.11, erasing nearly half of the gains since July 12. The British pound against the U.S. dollar fell the most by 0.4% and briefly fell below 1.28, basically erasing the gains since July 10. The Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar briefly rose above 141, breaking away from a two-week low. Many analysts believe that the Bank of Japan is about to move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy and may consider significantly raising the inflation expectation for the fiscal year 2023 to around 2.5%. The offshore renminbi fell below 7.21 yuan and briefly rose above 7.18 yuan. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have experienced significant declines. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by 3.5% and approached $29,000, reaching a five-week low. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell by 2.7% and approached the $1,840 mark. Earlier, Sam Altman, co-founder of OpenAI, launched WorldCoin, which soared 90% on its first day of trading and then narrowed its gains to over 20%. WorldCoin surged 90% on its first day of trading, pushing Bitcoin below $29,000. Gold Hovers Around $1960 Approaching One-Week Low, Industrial Metals Rise, Chicago Wheat Surges Over 8% to One-Month High Ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision, COMEX August gold futures fell 0.22% to $1962.20 per ounce. COMEX August silver futures fell 1.11% to $24.451 per ounce. Spot gold fell 0.3% after the US stock market noon and slipped below the $1960 level, essentially erasing the gains since last Tuesday. Analysts say that if there is a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve this week, it could push gold prices back above the $2000 mark. Gold hovers around $1960, approaching a one-week low. Boosted by optimistic demand prospects from China, London industrial metals rose across the board. "Copper Doctor," an "economic barometer," rose 0.8% to break through $8500, and London aluminum recovered more than half of last Thursday's decline. London zinc rose nearly 2% to surpass $2400, and London nickel rose over 3% to exceed $21,000, both returning to one-week highs. London lead rose 1.7% to a one-month high. Geopolitical tensions persist, with Chicago wheat futures surging over 8%, reaching a new high since June 26, and Paris "milling wheat" rising nearly 6%. Corn futures rose over 6%, and soybeans approached a 13-month high, with the Bloomberg Grains Index rising 5% to the highest level since June 21. Analysts say that the Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen by about 10% since late May, but it is still down for the year. The continued inflation in commodities could shift the narrative from a "soft landing" to "stagflation," essentially returning to the logic of last summer/autumn.