牛市渡灵人

The optical module sector has become the strongest main theme in the current market. Leading company New Epoch disclosed an impressive preliminary report for the first half of 2026, forecasting a year-on-year surge of 328%-385% in net profit attributable to shareholders. Net profit for Q2 also continued to rise sequentially. This robust performance catalyzed a collective rally in the sector. This better-than-expected earnings report confirms the high prosperity of the computing power industry chain, and short-term sector sentiment is expected to continue heating up. However, in my view, after the short-term sentiment surge, a period of consolidation and divergence is highly likely. While earnings can validate the industry trend, they cannot support an endless unilateral upward movement in the sector. I do not recommend chasing the rally at this moment. A more appropriate approach is to maintain observation and patiently wait for a round of consolidation and pullback...

In the early session, the global semiconductor sector was generally under pressure, with U.S. semiconductor stocks weakening across the board. Earlier, a sharp drop in South Korean heavyweight chip stocks had also fueled the spread of market panic. In the afternoon session, institutional funds entered the market to absorb selling pressure, leading to a wave of recovery and rebound in the sector. Among them, SK Hynix's underlying stock rebounded over 10% from underwater, the 2x leveraged SK Hynix product rebounded over 20% from its lowest point, and SK Hynix ADRs saw corresponding recovery. In my view, this is merely a short-term recovery after the release of panic selling pressure. This wave of rebound is unlikely to sustain and develop into a trend reversal; it's more of a temporary recovery within a volatile market, because although it's a bullish candlestick with high volume, the buying support below is strong...

The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has escalated again, with the risk of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz raised to the highest level. Both sides are attacking each other's overseas bases, and the US has revoked Iran's crude oil sales license. Despite the heightened risk-off sentiment, gold has shown a weakening trend. The core factor currently suppressing gold is the market's expectation of the Fed's high interest rates. The support from geopolitical risk aversion is insufficient to offset the negative impact of interest rates, and gold prices are under overall pressure in the short term. It is recommended that everyone continue to track international geopolitical developments and Fed-related inflation news. A single geopolitical event is unlikely to reverse gold's current trend; only multi-dimensional observation can clarify its future direction. I will continue to follow the changes in the US-Iran situation...

Overnight U.S. stocks collectively rose, with chip leaders driving the Nasdaq higher. Micron's increased investment reignited enthusiasm for the AI sector, coupled with the conclusion of SK Hynix ADR inquiries and Meta's market recovery, leading to a significant rise in overall market risk appetite. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran conflict did not worsen further, with gold prices stabilizing within a range and oil prices falling in sync. Domestic inflation data was weak, and market focus has already shifted to the upcoming release of U.S. June CPI and PPI data next Tuesday. Currently, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation changes, especially price fluctuations brought about by the AI industry chain. I've seen many people hastily adjust their positions by following overnight foreign market movements...

The minutes of the Fed's June meeting, the first under Waller's tenure, were released early this morning, revealing a clear divergence of views among internal officials: some believe interest rates are approaching neutral and consider cutting rates if data meets targets; others insist inflation is not yet at target and rates should not be cut within the year. However, these minutes did not fully stir the market. The US money market is even betting on a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with the possibility of an earlier hike in October. Two completely opposite expectations coexist simultaneously: policymakers are divided, and some trading capital in the secondary market is choosing to bet on rate hikes, creating a strong hedge between long and short positions...

Lily's stock price has recently experienced abnormal fluctuations. The company proactively clarified that its photoresist pigment-related business only accounts for 0.084% of its revenue, which is almost negligible in supporting its overall performance. This also serves as a reminder for investors to view short-term thematic speculation calmly. Too many retail investors are swept up by popular concepts, rushing into the market solely based on the hype of a theme while completely ignoring the actual contribution ratio of the related business, ultimately getting trapped at high positions. When we pay attention to the stock market, we must constantly remind ourselves that no matter how frenzied the sector speculation sentiment is, we should first calm down and analyze the company's real revenue structure, not letting our emotions be led by conceptual gimmicks. Thematic speculation comes and goes quickly...

Currently, the subsidy competition in the instant retail sector continues to heat up. JD.com has launched a 100 billion yuan subsidy plan for one year, and Taobao Flash Sales has also announced a 50 billion yuan subsidy scale for 12 months. Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan are all vying for major consumer traffic entry points. Ele.me and Fliggy have been integrated into Alibaba's e-commerce system, and Meituan is also increasing its investment in the instant retail sector. A closer look at the industry landscape reveals that massive subsidies are essentially a short-term tactic for platforms to seize traffic, and the long-term profit prospects are not stable. Blindly following hot trends and rushing into the market solely based on the scale of subsidies, while ignoring the costs of industry competition, may ultimately result in being trapped at high prices. The sector's popularity is surging...

The new A-share trading rules, prepared for two months, officially took effect on July 6th. This revision includes three core adjustments: optimizing the fund closing trading mechanism, expanding the applicable varieties for after-hours fixed-price trading, and raising the daily price fluctuation limit for Main Board ST stocks to 10%. After the news spread, many friends around me with positions fell into hesitation, discussing whether to reduce positions early to avoid risks. I hold regular Main Board stocks long-term, and the new rules have almost no impact on my holdings, so I didn't blindly adjust my position. A closer look at the details reveals that optimizing the close and expanding after-hours trading essentially provide long-term funds with more stable trading channels; while the relaxation of ST stock price limits...

The freshly released US non-farm payroll data directly disrupted the gold market, with prices swinging violently back and forth. However, global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, with both bullish and bearish logics repeatedly tearing at the minds of position holders. I have been holding a long-term gold position throughout this period and will not frequently enter and exit based on single-day fluctuations. Previously, I was always closely watching non-farm and interest rate-related news, repeatedly opening and closing positions. When gold prices rose, I was eager to add to my position; when they fell, I hurried to cut losses. After several rounds of such operations, just the costs and slippage ate away a significant portion of my principal. Now, facing significant price volatility, I have calmed down instead, unwilling to be led by short-term, single-day data. Ups and downs are the norm in the market...

In the past two days, minor metals such as tin, rare earth, and tungsten have strengthened again on the market. Sectors like semiconductors, robotics, and energy storage continue to drive demand, coupled with supply-side constraints, the logic of resource security has been repeatedly hotly debated in the market. I have positions in related sectors and have made small profits in the past two days, but I have always restrained the impulse to add more. I have a deep understanding of the previous energy storage lithium resource wave. Back then, the market was all speculating on high growth expectations for energy storage. I just blindly followed the trend and added positions, completely ignoring the cycle and pace of supply expansion in upstream lithium mines. Subsequently, lithium prices corrected, and I had to endure holding the positions for a long time before breaking even. Now, facing the collective strength of the non-ferrous metals sector again...

When I came across this message, my finger hovered over the trading app for two seconds, almost jumping in. I'm talking about Wendy's: it surged 42% intraday on Wednesday, closing up 26%, marking its biggest single-day gain since 2021. The company didn't issue any positive announcements, only a post on Reddit calling to "save Wendy's," which was later deleted. The stock price has fallen over 70% since mid-2023, a typical meme stock revival story. I've been tempted by this kind of action too—who wouldn't want to ride an emotional wave? But meme stocks, their rise is as fast as their fall...

In March 2026, Li Daxiao said something: The "buy the dip" strategy that US retail investors had been following for over a year reversed for the first time. Quite ironic. During the same period, Hong Kong IPOs ranked first globally, and the number of new A-share accounts hit a historical high. No one comes when it's low, everyone rushes in when it's high—this is probably the fate of retail investors. Among them, three types of people are very typical. The first type, addicted to bottom-fishing. They see every dip as a bargain, not realizing they're catching a falling knife. The second type, fear of missing out (FOMO). Seeing others make money is worse than losing money themselves, so they rush in to buy at highs. The third type is the most tragic, loss of faith—when "buy the dip" no longer works...

Google DeepMind has lost two big names in a row these days—first, Noam Shazeel, one of the authors of the Transformer paper and co-head of Gemini, announced he was going to OpenAI; then John Jumper, the head of AlphaFold and a Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, also announced he was jumping ship to Anthropic. Combined, they are basically the two biggest names in the AI field in recent years, leaving just like that without a moment's hesitation for the market. The result: on Monday, June 22, Alphabet's stock price directly fell by more than 5%...

The market has been exceptionally fragmented over the past two days. The large financial sector continues to recover, and many who have held for a long time have finally seen their positions rebound. The previously hot AI-related sectors have entered a consolidation phase. Those who missed this financial rally can't help but feel anxious watching others profit. My own financial holdings have performed well these past few days, recovering a significant amount, but I haven't gotten carried away. The mindsets of two types of people around me are clear at a glance: those who made money are reluctant to cash out, always wanting to hold on a bit longer to earn more; those who missed the rally are eager to jump in, afraid of being left out of the next wave. Market gains are never distributed equally to everyone, some reap...

The fluctuations in the gold market over the past two days must have unsettled many holders. Holding my own position through the back-and-forth agony, I feel I've come to understand the inner demons of everyone watching their screens. Just yesterday, Goldman Sachs directly and significantly lowered its year-end gold target price to $4,900. As the institution's shift to a cautious view emerged, coupled with the market betting on the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rising to 76% and U.S. Treasury yields climbing in sync, gold prices came under pressure instantly. Many who chased the highs and got in were immediately trapped, filled with regret when checking the charts late at night. Yet on the other side, the World Gold Council's survey data is right there: nearly 90% of central banks still plan to continue increasing their gold holdings...

ComputeX 2026 has completely rewritten the narrative of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) — Jensen Huang announced the silicon photonics roadmap and in March 2026, invested $2 billion each in Coherent and Lumentum to lock in laser supply; Marvell made a judgment: the next AI bottleneck is not computing power, it's "connectivity." The trend is covered, today we only discuss the most practical: which US stocks benefit, what's the logic, and whose position is actually less secure. Here's a ruler: the closer to "optical chips/lasers" and "advanced packaging," the deeper the moat; the closer to "pure module assembly"...