Kevin🚀

$CHINA SHENHUA(01088.HK) rose slightly, while $SHANDONG MOLONG(00568.HK) fell by eight or nine points. $Battalion Oil(BATL.US) dropped by over ten points. Oil prices are rising, but these oil and coal stocks are diverging. Major coal stocks are stable, while small-cap oil and gas stocks are plunging. The rising oil price couldn't support them. How to understand this? It looks more like individual company-specific issues outweighing the oil price. Small-cap oil and gas companies are inherently volatile, and such a deep decline is likely due to their own operational or liquidity issues, not something oil prices can explain. A high-dividend major coal stock like Shenhua is actually the certainty that funds are seeking in the volatility, which is a different logic from small-cap oil and gas stocks.

$Centrus Energy(LEU.US) surged over seven points, and $X-Energy(XE.US) also rose six points, with the nuclear fuel sector leading the gains. $Centrus Energy(LEU.US) secured a $900 million fixed-price HALEU contract and is set to be included in the S&P 600 in mid-July, making its catalysts even stronger; $X-Energy(XE.US) moved more in line with the sentiment of the nuclear energy sector. $Constellation Energy(CEG.US) edged up, supported by steady growth in data center long-term power purchase agreement prices; $Oklo(OKLO.US) and $NuScale Power(SMR.US) saw slight pullbacks from their previous gains.

The underlying logic for this batch is the same—AI data center power demand has revalued nuclear power and SMRs. However, the nuclear fuel side has tangible contracts in place, while the SMR side is still waiting for the next commercialization milestone, leading to a performance divergence within the same supply chain.

Oil prices are actually still trending downwards, with WTI returning to around 68, but $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) and $CNOOC(00883.HK) both rose slightly against the trend today. Cooling geopolitical risks are weighing on oil prices, yet these two oil and gas stocks rebounded first. This looks more like a recovery after valuations became too low, not completely following oil price pricing. If you're holding during this divergence, don't panic too much. As long as oil prices don't crash further, undervalued oil and gas stocks that can't fall further will see capital flow back in.

$QuantumScape(QS.US) basically didn't move, $UP Fintech(TIGR.US) dipped slightly. The logic behind solid-state battery commercialization milestones and broker commission/crypto trading volume are completely unrelated, both saw slight declines today 🙃

$QuantumScape(QS.US) dropped four percentage points, $Centrus Energy(LEU.US) dropped three or four percentage points, $Cameco(CCJ.US) also dropped two percentage points. The nuclear uranium and solid-state battery batch weakened together. These targets have a commonality: they are all driven by technological or capacity milestones, and are prone to a slow decline when there's no data to realize in the short term. Should we take advantage of the pullback to lay out this long-cycle theme now, or wait until the milestones are clear before entering? I'll wait—the real entry point for such targets is usually before the catalyst announcement, not during the long waiting period. Catching a falling knife during a sideways period isn't cost-effective.

WTI crude oil has fallen to its lowest level in over three months. Logically, oil stocks should be suffering along with it, but $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) and $CNOOC(00883.HK) have barely moved, almost unaffected by the drop in oil prices. While oil prices are falling, oil stocks are holding up. Is this divergence because the market has already priced in weak expectations for oil prices, or is it that defensive positions underpinned by dividends have absorbed the funds during risk aversion? It looks more like the latter—when risk appetite shrinks, large-cap oil and gas stocks with stable cash flows and solid dividends have instead become a haven for funds to weather the storm.

$NANO Nuclear Energy(NNE.US) led the way with a gain of over ten points, driven more by a collective surge in the nuclear energy and uranium theme, coupled with a buy-initiating rating from Roth the previous day; $Lightbridge(LTBR.US) rose five or six points, $Cameco(CCJ.US) barely moved, and $Forgent Power Solutions(FPS.US) saw a slight increase. AI's baseload demand has reignited interest in nuclear energy, but few among these small-cap stocks have substantial project progress. Stocks like $NANO Nuclear Energy(NNE.US), with high volatility, rely on themes and ratings for momentum. Nuclear energy is a long-term narrative; this short-term broad rally is more about sentiment. Don't mistake volatility for certainty before any milestones are delivered.

$Rubico(RUBI.US) plummeted -24% in a single day, which is particularly glaring. $CPS Tech(CPSH.US) and $LUNG FUNG GROUP(02290.HK) also fell by eight or nine percentage points. The three completely unrelated sectors of oil shipping, chemical materials, and consumer goods all collapsed today. The simultaneous sharp decline of unrelated small-cap stocks—did each step on its own landmine, or is it due to poor small-cap liquidity being pushed down by the same wave of capital withdrawal? It seems more like the latter. Looking at each individually, no common negative catalyst is apparent. High-volatility small caps are often indiscriminately sold off on days when risk appetite contracts. $Rubico(RUBI.US) fell so hard. Should we rush to buy the dip or hide first? Personally, I don't dare to catch the falling knife. 🙈

$CNOOC(00883.HK) dipped slightly. Brent crude has already climbed above $94, yet it still fell a little. The divergence between this leading Hong Kong-listed oil & gas stock and oil prices is quite glaring. Is it due to overall Hong Kong market liquidity pressure, or does the market believe this round of oil price surge is just a geopolitical impulse that won't change long-term pricing assumptions? It looks more like the latter—even when oil prices broke $100 last time, it didn't fully follow. Stocks with a dividend logic are always insensitive to impulse-driven oil price moves. To really see it move, you'd have to wait for oil prices to stabilize at high levels for more than a quarter.

$FuelCell Energy(FCEL.US) skidded -10%. Fuel cells are inherently high beta, so they get hit first when market risk appetite contracts. $EOS Energy Enterprises(EOSE.US) also fell five or six points, with energy storage following suit and giving back gains. $Canadian Solar(CSIQ.US) held up relatively well, barely moving.

These small-cap clean energy stocks in solar, energy storage, and fuel cells are destined to suffer when the broader market fluctuates. Without their own order catalysts, they can only wait for a macro turnaround. 😔

China Shenhua Energy rose by almost three percentage points, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings and Nine Energy Service barely moved, and Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery fell by two percentage points — the distribution of the four traditional energy stocks across Hong Kong and US markets (coal, shipping, oil services) is inconsistent.

China Shenhua Energy is stabilizing with the high-dividend defensive attributes of coal, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings is stuck in the range-bound shipping sector in the Hong Kong market, while the small-cap US oil services stocks continue to grind within the range-bound oil price market. Is it the high-dividend premium of Hong Kong energy stocks holding up, or does coal really have independent catalysts? Looking at it, it seems more like the former — the sideways movement of US oil services stocks indicates that the logic of oil prices isn't moving, and Shenhua's strength is more a reflection of Hong Kong market funds switching to defensive assets.

First Solar and Enphase Energy both rose over four percentage points, with U.S. solar stocks strengthening following policy and demand expectations; Plug Power rose slightly, and hydrogen energy followed a bit; however, Sige New Energy fell almost two percentage points, while Hong Kong energy storage stocks are actually in a pullback.

Both are new energy sectors: U.S. solar stocks are rising, while Hong Kong energy storage stocks are falling. Is this divergence between Hong Kong and U.S. markets due to differing paces in subsidy and demand expectations across the two markets, or simply a difference in capital flows? It looks more like the former—U.S. solar stocks have the certainty of domestic manufacturing subsidies supporting them, while Hong Kong energy storage stocks lack this layer of policy benefits and have weaker demand catalysts. It's highly likely the two sides will continue to move separately in the short term.

Compared with memory stocks, Dell's forward PE is still at a low level. Could it be the next AI second-tier stock to be re-rated by the market?

The direction of China concept industrial and new energy sectors is too divergent: Dongfang Electric has been hammered, the order rhythm for power equipment is being reassessed, Longpan Technology also fell about seven points; GCL Technology and Sige New Energy basically didn't move; Chery Automobile fell slightly;

AUX Electric actually rose about four points, home appliances and industrial power are moving at completely different paces 😳

Consumer electronics components diverged today: Lens Technology +8.2% is pulling up, Sunny Optical is down, Changguang Chenxin basically flat, Sunmi Technology edged higher, Mega Fortune slightly down. Individual stocks are moving on their own logic, with no unified market news.

Jinko Solar rose 10.8%, which is a rare strong performance for a leading Chinese photovoltaic company in US ADRs—earlier tariff concerns were fully priced in around $12, and better-than-expected Q1 module shipments are the basis for this rally;

Eaton +1%, stable in power infrastructure, the growth in electricity consumption from AI data centers is a long-term positive for its power distribution business, with relatively flat price action;

Junda shares fell 4.5%, the movements of Hong Kong-listed photovoltaic auxiliary materials and US ADRs often diverge;

QuantumScape and Amprius rose 4.7% and 5.9% respectively, the solid-state battery concept is gaining momentum collectively following Solid Power, with short-term movements reflecting sentiment rather than fundamentals more🤔

Solid Power and QuantumScape, two representative players in the solid-state battery race 😥

This track was very hot a while ago, but it has quieted down recently, mainly because the repeated delays in the commercialization timeline have somewhat cooled market enthusiasm.

Biopharmaceuticals, technology, and aerospace sectors took off directly before the holiday. $Vor BioPharma(VOR.US) is still showing modest gains, while stocks like $Tron(TRON.US) and $Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US) surged over 10% in one go. It's just unknown what the market will look like when it opens again...

Currently, gold's implied volatility (IV) is high (gold prices have hit a record high), and holding DULL carries significant implied decay. The GEX structure shows that gold long gamma is highly concentrated; any pullback will be suppressed by dealers—timing is crucial for shorting gold.

RKLB's 60-day IV is around 90%+, HV around 70%, with an IV premium present, and put/call skew is bullish. The SpaceX IPO news has stimulated the entire space sector, but RKLB itself is overvalued, with clear GEX resistance above.

INTC recently rose 9% on news of its Ireland fab buyback, with a sharp increase in short-term call open interest. However, Intel's structural issues remain unresolved; after the IV spike, it's suitable to sell short-term calls to collect premiums.

Both the tech and new energy sectors were slacking off today. Mengniu Dairy, Lens Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium were all deep in the red. Defensive stocks, as expected, couldn't create miracles, and the new economy showed little sign of improvement. The only one worth watching is Chifeng Gold. Gold prices have been remarkably stable these two days, and its closing in the green against the market trend is quite interesting. As for Xunce, it surged nearly 20% directly, leaving no chance to get on board. Those who missed out could only watch from the sidelines. Missing it is just missing it; the naive investor's constitution is solid.

Discuss why $Circle(CRCL.US) is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current stablecoin regulatory trend.

I'm not a big fan of chasing trends, but there are indeed a few things worth mentioning about Circle recently.

1️⃣ The regulatory wind has shifted. After the passage of the US GENIUS Act (the stablecoin regulatory framework bill), demand for regulated stablecoins with high transparency and compliance requirements has surged significantly. USDC is the most direct beneficiary. Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock are already using USDC for settlement; this is no small matter.

2️⃣ USDC's circulation reached $753 billion by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72%. More crucially, on-chain transaction volume in Q4 reached approximately $12 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 247%.

3️⃣ Circle also received conditional approval to establish a trust bank called the First National Digital Currency Bank. If ultimately approved, the company will have stronger control over its reserves and will also open up entirely new banking business opportunities.

Of course, risks must be clearly stated: the revenue structure is relatively singular, and reserve interest income is under pressure from the Fed's rate cut expectations. Additionally, the dilution from a large number of options and RSUs post-IPO is also a concern.

Overall, the current valuation is not cheap. However, if you believe stablecoins are part of the future global payment infrastructure, CRCL is one of the very few ways to directly trade this theme on US stock markets, giving it strong scarcity value.

Currently, the average target price from 20 analysts is $123.5, with the current price at $115. The upside isn't huge, but the narrative logic remains intact.

Today, $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) has caught the attention of many people again, mainly due to the oil price + geopolitical narrative. Yesterday's market news was that the Middle East situation suddenly became tense, with rocket attacks on commercial ships in Iran and threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, which directly ignited oil prices. As a result, shale oil leaders like Occidental rose about 5% that day, closing near $58. At the same time, some investment banks upgraded their rating to Overweight, with a target price of $66.

From my perspective, the logic is actually quite simple:

1) Oil prices are affected by war premiums in the short term.

2) OXY has high production in the Permian, directly benefiting from rising oil prices.

3) The company is still aggressively reducing debt these past two years.

Moreover, with a long-term shareholder like Buffett behind it, market sentiment naturally has an extra layer of support.

My personal position isn't large. I added a little near $55 a few days ago. Looking at it now, the short-term sentiment seems a bit overheated. If oil prices continue to surge, it can definitely go further, but this kind of event-driven rally comes and goes quickly.

I want to ask everyone, does chasing oil stocks now count as catching the last train?