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$Snowflake(SNOW.US), and $CIG(06166.HK) both rose by two to three percentage points, while $Cisco(CSCO.US) dipped slightly instead. $Snowflake(SNOW.US) is following the narrative of AI data demand, $CIG(06166.HK)—this kind of optical module and AIoT end—is recovering with the sentiment along the computing power chain; $Cisco(CSCO.US)—this kind of large-cap network equipment stock—has a steadier pace, giving back a bit with the broader market. Those with greater growth elasticity moved first, while large-caps prioritize stability, just moving in different directions 🤔

$Figma(FIG.US) rose +12%, with a strong short squeeze flavor—shorts account for 42.4% of the float, Citizens just added 160,000 new shares, BofA and Citi gave buy ratings with target prices of $30-36, and AI is the core of their bullish view. It's actually still down over 30% year-to-date. This kind of rebound, driven by high short interest and institutional buying back, has great elasticity, but its sustainability depends on whether the fundamentals can catch up.

$Salesforce(CRM.US) has basically moved sideways, $IBM(IBM.US), $Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US), and $Blackberry(BB.US) have all fallen, with drops ranging from over two to four points 😔

US software stocks have recently undergone a collective revaluation, and the research report stating "capital is rotating out of software" is still fermenting—whether AI is an incremental addition to or a replacement for software, the market is becoming increasingly hesitant in its vote with its feet. Holding software positions hasn't been easy lately, so I've paused my dollar-cost averaging.

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) fell over two percentage points, $Figma(FIG.US) also fell over two percentage points, $Salesforce(CRM.US) and $Adobe(ADBE.US) dipped slightly. A batch of major SaaS stocks collectively weakened that day.

There's no issue with the fundamentals of these companies. The pressure seems more from valuation—AI is rewriting the per-seat pricing logic of SaaS, and the market is worried about their pricing power being eroded. Is this the beginning of AI's repricing of the SaaS business model, or just a short-term rotation where chips are strong and software is being drained of capital? I bet on the former. This round of valuation compression for software won't be digested in just a day or two.

$Terawulf(WULF.US), $IREN(IREN.US), and $Nebius(NBIS.US) all got hammered today, each dropping eight or nine percent. The AI data center and crypto computing power sector has a very high beta, so it's the first to get hit when risk appetite shrinks—on the day AI estimates are being repriced, these companies that are still burning cash to build computing power and haven't fully proven their profitability paths also give back gains quickly. $IREN(IREN.US) and $Terawulf(WULF.US) also have Bitcoin exposure, adding another layer of pressure when the crypto price weakens. They have high elasticity on the rebound too, it's just that holding them on days like this requires strong nerves 😵‍💫

$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) has risen by nearly three points, while $Salesforce(CRM.US) and $Adobe(ADBE.US) have been fluctuating slightly around the flat line. The cybersecurity sector is still moving on the sentiment driven by AI security demand, with $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) showing better elasticity. Large, not-cheaply-valued software stocks like $Salesforce(CRM.US) and $Adobe(ADBE.US) tend to move sideways when lacking new catalysts. The recent divergence in the software sector is evident here—stocks with AI growth stories are moving up, while pure SaaS stocks with valuation digestion are staying put.

$Figma(FIG.US) surged over nine points on heavy volume, trending upward since its IPO. This wave broke through previous highs with volume, showing strong short-term momentum—breakouts with volume support are generally more reliable than those with shrinking volume. If it stabilizes above the new high, the uptrend is likely to continue. $Adobe(ADBE.US) gained about four points here, accumulating over a dozen points in the past five days. Both design software stocks are moving in the same direction.

Expectations for paid conversion in generative design are recovering. $Adobe(ADBE.US) is cheaper and more defensive than $Figma(FIG.US). If chasing $Figma(FIG.US), one must acknowledge the high volatility of this recent IPO. As long as it doesn't fall below the breakout level on a pullback, it remains in a bullish structure. If it breaks below, exit first.

$Snowflake(SNOW.US) and $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) barely moved, $Adobe(ADBE.US) rose four points, showing some stratification emerging in U.S. enterprise software stocks. The overall SaaS market is waiting for the next batch of earnings reports to set the tone, with $Adobe(ADBE.US) taking a step ahead on expectations of AI feature monetization. The valuation of this batch is now heavily dependent on the progress of AI monetization—those that can prove AI brings incremental paying users will be recognized by capital first, while those just telling stories without data will continue to grind their valuation.

$Axon Enterprise(AXON.US) rose six percentage points, with two pieces of news coming together—it was disclosed that $Axon Enterprise(AXON.US) stock, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released a procurement intent for about $220 million worth of Taser guns.

The market interpreted this as an opportunity for federal orders, but the procurement intent has not yet turned into a formal contract; the $220 million is more of an imagined ceiling. The order visibility for law enforcement equipment is already high; the real step to wait for is when the intent materializes into a contract.

$Caterpillar(CAT.US) edged up slightly, but the technical picture is far more eye-catching than the gain—the 5/20/50-day moving averages are all in a bullish alignment, with 12 buy signals and 0 sell signals, RSI just above 60, still room before overbought. Holding above the 20-day moving average (around 917) is key, resistance is seen near the previous high; a break below the 50-day moving average (around 877) should prompt consideration of exiting, the risk-reward ratio is currently favorable.

$Adobe(ADBE.US) barely moved, RSI at 69.4 is already close to the overbought line, above the 20/50-day moving averages but still below the 200-day—short-term momentum and long-term trend are at odds. The stock is down over 40% year-to-date, the stories of the Topaz Labs acquisition and AI annual recurring revenue exceeding $500 million failed to alleviate valuation concerns; short-term momentum is likely to pause near the resistance around 213, a break would look for support around 203, chasing the upside offers limited value.

The enterprise software sector clearly rose today.

$Salesforce(CRM.US) rose over five points, $Adobe(ADBE.US) rose nearly five points, and $KINGSOFT(03888.HK) gained three points slightly.

The first driver is valuation recovery after the software sector's sharp decline last week; the second is that analysts have started incorporating the commercialization expectations of AI Agents into the medium-term models for $Salesforce(CRM.US) and $Adobe(ADBE.US).

The cybersecurity sector is relatively strong: $Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US), $CloudFlare(NET.US) both rose slightly, $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) basically didn't move; $Accenture(ACN.US) fell slightly against the trend. IT consulting services and cybersecurity are not in the same cycle. Both are in the enterprise software category, but the security subscription line has demand support, while traditional IT services are dragged down by cautious corporate spending, resulting in a divergence in performance. 😀

$Upstart(UPST.US) rose almost four points, $Oscar Health(OSCR.US) fell two or three points, $Bitdeer Tech(BTDR.US) edged up slightly, and $Bank of America(BAC.US) basically didn't move—all within the financial sector, AI lending, health insurance, crypto mining, and traditional banking are each moving on their own. There's no common thread; it's more like their individual betas are in motion: $Bitdeer Tech(BTDR.US) follows Bitcoin, $Upstart(UPST.US) follows AI credit sentiment. Faced with this kind of fragmented market, rather than agonizing over which one to bet on, it's better to recognize they're not part of the same story to begin with—which of these lines do you think has more staying power?

Several internet and financial platforms have been generally weak lately: $ZA ONLINE(06060.HK) has fallen almost four points, and $Bullish(BLSH.US), $Cipher Digital(CIFR.US), $Opendoor Tech(OPEN.US), $Grab(GRAB.US), $Trade Desk(TTD.US) are basically drifting between slight declines and no movement 🙄

Crypto exchanges, mining companies, real estate tech, Southeast Asian super apps, and advertising platforms are each going their own way, lacking a common narrative. When overall market risk appetite contracts, these platform stocks lacking independent catalysts just follow the sentiment downward.

The U.S. software stocks were a bit scattered today. $Snowflake(SNOW.US) and $Accenture(ACN.US) both fell 2-3 points, $Adobe(ADBE.US) was basically flat, and $Figma(FIG.US) rose slightly. All are in SaaS/software services, so why are the ones with louder AI stories not rising, while traditional software consulting is falling? It seems more like the market is re-evaluating "whose AI revenue can truly land on the financial statements"—those like $Figma(FIG.US) with clear AI integration on the product side can still hold up, while those like $Accenture(ACN.US) relying on AI consulting for transformation are being questioned about their short-term monetization pace. Within the Fed's hawkish window, the valuation digestion for high-multiple software stocks may not be over yet.

$Snowflake(SNOW.US) dropped over three points, which is normal for a high cloud computing valuation to take a hit; $IBM(IBM.US), $Duolingo(DUOL.US), and $SoundHound AI(SOUN.US) all dipped slightly following the pressure, the overall AI software batch has no momentum 🙄

Better wait for the next catalyst

$INGDAN(00400.HK) rose almost five percentage points, as the story of the AIoT supply chain is occasionally remembered; $Infleqtion(INFQ.US) edged up slightly, with small-cap quantum stocks drifting along with sector sentiment; $PHANCY(06682.HK) basically didn't move 🙃

The AI application layer lacks new narratives in both Hong Kong and US markets. The dividends from model iterations haven't trickled down to this level yet. Before the next killer app emerges, application-layer stocks are just rotational side dishes.

$Figma(FIG.US) fell more than three points, $KINGSOFT(03888.HK) and $Adobe(ADBE.US) also dipped slightly. The creative and office software sector is collectively seeing reduced volume ahead of earnings, waiting for direction.

$Adobe(ADBE.US)'s guidance is coming soon: Is AI actually eating into design software seat counts, or is it helping it raise prices? The two numbers of net subscription additions and AI add-on revenue will directly determine whether the SaaS valuation framework still holds. I'm personally betting on "helping it raise prices," but only a small bet—judgments with low confidence should be matched with small positions.

$Adobe(ADBE.US) earnings are scheduled for tomorrow after the market closes, with the options market pricing in an implied volatility of ±8.7%.

Two background numbers: Out of the past eight earnings reports, the actual volatility exceeded the implied volatility five times. Last quarter, the implied volatility was 6.8%, but the stock actually fell by 8.7%. The quarter before that, the implied volatility was 7.7%, but the stock actually rose by 8.6%. Sellers of volatility have been taking consecutive losses on this stock, and the current 8.7% is already an elevated quote.

The stock has lost a quarter of its value year-to-date, and it closed slightly lower last night around $238. The market has largely priced in the negative impact of AI eroding creative software. With expectations set so low—consensus EPS at 5.82 and consensus revenue at $6.46 billion—the bar for exceeding expectations isn't actually that high.

I'm not trying to guess the direction because volatility itself is more worth trading than direction—the odds for a long straddle aren't bad, given the implied 8.7% volatility and the history of five previous overshoots.

$Nintendo(NTDOY.US) rose over six percentage points. After AI siphoned off too much capital, Japanese entertainment stocks are being revalued. Nintendo is leading this wave with a valuation recovery. $Gamehaus(GMHS.US) also rose four to five points, with small-cap gaming stocks following the sentiment.

$Roblox(RBLX.US) edged up slightly, $Sea(SE.US) fell over two points, and $Disney(DIS.US) was basically flat.

Japanese gaming is recovering, Southeast Asian platforms are giving back gains, each following its own logic 😸

ChinaSoft International rose by more than four points, with expectations for the implementation of Xinchuang and AI boosting the popularity of government and enterprise IT services; Meanwhile, MFT was down more than five points, with marketing SaaS still struggling with its profit model. Both are Hong Kong-listed software stocks, but one is strengthening on the imagination of Xinchuang orders, while the other is dragged down by its own losses, completely diverging today. Is this divergence because government and enterprise IT is truly benefiting from AI earlier than marketing SaaS, or is it just a short-term trade-off by capital? It seems more like the former—those with government orders as a backstop are indeed more resilient in an uncertain environment.

Unity Software basically didn't move, Datadog fell slightly, and Kingsoft fell three points. The U.S. software sector was stable today, while the small-cap Hong Kong stocks were dragged down by the lack of momentum in the broader market🙃

Nintendo rose by over two percentage points, Sea fell slightly—console gaming and Southeast Asian mobile gaming + e-commerce moved separately today. Nintendo's hardware cycle is still heating up, while Sea's e-commerce side follows Southeast Asian consumer sentiment😀

Intuit rose by over two percentage points, Veeva rose by over three percentage points, Zscaler rose by over eight percentage points—U.S. enterprise software stocks collectively strengthened today, with cloud security showing relatively clear resilience, and valuations are still being repriced around the earnings season 🙌

Palo Alto Networks rose more than five percentage points. The newly launched Idira platform focuses on identity security in the AI era, with the company also warning that "AI-driven cyberattacks will become the norm." This round of funding prices the company as transforming Palo Alto from a next-generation firewall vendor into an "AI identity layer infrastructure" supplier, broadening the TAM framework.

I feel this is the beginning of a valuation re-anchoring — in the eyes of analysts, Palo Alto may transition from an SASE vendor with a forward PE of 50x to an AI infra vendor at 60-70x, with the key being whether Cortex XSIAM and Idira collectively achieve over 30% ARR growth in the Q2 earnings report.